Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -5.3% 2) Energy -4.1% 3) Social Media -3.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DLR, FSLY, BROS, PTEN, BJRI, ATNM, FLWS, PEGA, AMN, CHRD, TTD, AL, PXD, MTDR, RBLX, VICR, DVN, CHWY, TOST, AZEK, FOUR, EOG, ACLS, CPE, ABNB, UFPI, DASH, NRDS, ALB, DH, DBX, CGNX and PLL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DBX 2) TIP 3) ARKG 4) FANG 5) DE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UEIC 2) CGNX 3) XP 4) DBX 5) RDFN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• Telecom +3.2% 2) Utilities +.9% 3) Foods +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMCX, USM, ISEE, DKNG, MD, RETA, EBS, HUBS, AN, DE, BFAM, HTGC, HCSG, HCC, TVTX, ATR, SWAV, BOWL and TSLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BEN 2) RITM 3) DE 4) AKAM 5) LIT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HUBS 2) DE 3) DKNG 4) ISEE 5) KNSL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Potential Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AWI)/1.12
• (AAWW)/5.20
• (ELAN)/.13
• (EXPD)/1.96
• (FLR)/.51
• (HD)/3.29
• (IR)/.62
• (LPX)/.54
• (MDT)/1.27
• (TAP)/1.07
• (TRN)/.47
• (WMT)/1.51
  

After the Close:

• (BCC)/2.92
• (CZR)/-.26
• (CHK)/2.90
• (COIN)/-1.41
• (FANG)/5.27
• (FLS)/.52
• (TWNK)/.24
• (LZB)/.66
• (PANW)/.77
• (PSA)/3.97
• (STAA)/.14
• (TOL)/1.39
• (RIG)/-.20
• (ZIP)/.26
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb.
  

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Feb. is estimated to rise to 47.2 versus 46.9 in Jan.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for Feb. is estimated to rise to 47.3 versus 46.8 in Jan.
• The S&P Global US Composite PIM for Feb. is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 46.8 in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Jan. is estimated to rise to 4.1M versus 4.02M in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI report, 2Y T-Note auction, Citi Industrial Tech/Mobility Conference and the (WMB) analyst day could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 39.7% of Issues Advancing, 56.6% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 58.3%(-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 -7.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.5 -1.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,880.2 -.46%
  
• Vix 20.5 +1.7%
• Total Put/Call 1.11 +26.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 +17.8%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                    

• China Poised to Appoint New Chiefs at Banking, Market Regulators.
• US, Gulf Council Pledge Increased Cooperation Against Iranian Threat.   
• Asia Stocks, US Futures Slide on Hawkish Fed Tone: Markets Wrap.  
• OPEC+ Deal Will Stay in Place All Year, Saudi Minister Says.  
• Bitcoin Drops More Than 4% on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric, US Clampdown.
• Fury Grows Over Ohio Chemical Disaster as Biden Offers Help.  
• Ohio Train Derailment Could Bring Cancer Risk, Millions in Damage.
• Brain-Computer Interface Companies Are Wary of Regulation.
• Bankman-Fried Judge Threatens Jail Over Use of Apps, VPNs.  
• GM’s Strong Truck Sales Are Funding This Year’s EV Sales Blitz, Barra Says.  
• Americans Have Nearly $1 Trillion in Credit Card Debt.  
• Fed Hawks See Possible Case for Returning to Larger Rate Hikes. 
• Fed’s Bullard Open to Half-Point Rate Hike at Next Meeting.
  
• Lesser-Known Hedge Fund Boss Joins Ranks of Best Paid With 193% Gain.

Wall Street Journal:

• Bring Back Objective Journalism. Too many editors are responding to a crisis of public trust by abandoning traditional news values.
• Biden Does a Spy Balloon Fly-By. Two weeks later he speaks but offers little but glib reassurance.
• Belarus Leader Stands by Putin, Ready to Aid More Attacks on Ukraine.
• Tesla’s Growing Competition in China Goes Beyond Just EVs.
• Fugitive Stablecoin Founder Kwon Accused of Securities Fraud in U.S.
• Bitcoin’s Future Depends on a Handful of Mysterious Coders.
• Emails Reveal Epstein’s Deep Ties to Former Barclays CEO Staley.
• Ford CEO Grapples With Problems From the Auto Maker’s Past.
• Norfolk Southern Train Derails Near Detroit.

Fox News:

• Senator's eye-opening video of conditions after Ohio chemical spill.

CNBC.com:

• Microsoft’s Bing A.I. is producing creepy conversations with users.
• Web inventor thinks we’re all going to have our own A.I. assistants like ChatGPT.
• Nvidia is the ‘AI buy,’ says ‘Fast Money’ trader Tim Seymour.
• YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki says she’s stepping down.
• Charlie Munger: Cryptocurrency is ‘stupid gambling,’ and ‘people who oppose my position are idiots’.

MarketWatch:              

• A stock-market catastrophe in the making? The popularity of these risky option bets has Wall Street on edge.
  
• SEC charges Terraform Labs and CEO Do Kwon with defrauding crypto investors.
  
• Around 25% of new crypto tokens looked like pump-and-dump schemes in 2022, report says.
  
• DoorDash stock surges on ‘best quarter ever,’ despite holiday losses more than doubling expectations.  
• Why traders suddenly see significant chance of a June interest rate hike by the Fed.

Zero Hedge:

• East Palestine "Residents May Already Be Undergoing DNA Mutations," Class Action Lawsuit Alleges.
• "Say Hello To Snow White": Ex-JPMorgan Exec Emailed Jeffrey Epstein About Disney Princesses. 
• Jordan Subpoenas Big Tech CEOs In House 'Weaponization' Probe.
• BREAKING - Former CIA Advisor: Biden bombed Nord Stream?
• Wall St. Journal Report Says You Should Stop Eating To Save Money.
• Free Speech Is Futile: Gates Goes Full 'Borg' On AI Censorship.
• Goldman Traders Warn That Market "Felt Like A Potential Inflection Point Today".
• US Military Readiness Under Scrutiny After Aerial Incursions.
• Watch: CDC Director Suggests It Will Never Change Child-Masking Policy.
• US stocks declined after hawkish data and Fed rhetoric - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "Comfortably" long?
• WHO Suddenly Shelves Plans For Second Phase Investigation Into Origins Of COVID-19: Report.
• Ted Cruz Snaps At Clapper Over Hunter Biden Backpedal.
• Hawkish FedSpeak Hammers Stocks; Bitcoin Bid After 'Bad' Data.
• Victor Davis Hanson: Destroying Meritocracy Is Deadly.
• Judge Overseeing Bankman-Fried Fraud Trial Threatens To Revoke Bail, Throw SBF In Prison Over VPN Use.
• Mester and Bullard tout 50bps, hitting stocks and bonds further after hot PPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.

Newsmax:   

• CPAC Chairman Urges AT&T, DirecTV to Reinstate Newsmax.
• RNC's McDaniel: Members Urged to Fight DirecTV Censorship.
• Alina Habba: Newsmax Removal 'Needs to Be Investigated'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• THE CRUELTY IS THE POINT: Ohio Governor Mike DeWine Reveals The Biden Regime Is OUTRIGHT REFUSING Assistance To East Palestine.
• Simple Demonstration by JD Vance Shows How Polluted the Waters Are in East Palestine, Ohio After Toxic Train Wreck.
• Timeline to Death: Ultra MAGA Party Releases Damning Video on Pfizer COVID Vaccine Performance.
• New Idaho Bill to Charge Those Who Administer mRNA Vaccines with Misdemeanor.
• WATCH: AZ Governor Katie Hobbs Gets BOOED At PGA Tourney With Likely HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS In Attendance.
• REPORT: California Has Lost Half A Million Residents In Just Two Years.
• Now China and Germany Join Russia and Demand an Investigation Into Biden’s Connections with Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Sabotage.
• “Give Me a Break, Man!” Biden Lashes Out at Reporter For Asking if He’s Compromised By His Family’s Corrupt Business Dealings with China (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Democrat Sen. John Fetterman Checks Into Hospital For Depression.
• REVEALED: Nikki Haley Is One of Globalist World Economic Forum Founder Klaus Schwab’s ‘Young Global Leaders’.
• Another Embarrassment: Joe Biden Says 3 ‘Objects’ Shot Down by US Fighter Pilots Likely Weather Balloons (VIDEO).
• “Where Is Pete Buttigieg?” – Ohio Residents Erupt at Town Hall Meeting on Environmental Disaster Following Train Derailment (VIDEO).
• American Surfing Legend Kelly Slater Reveals His Mother Suffered an Adverse Reaction from the Pfizer Shot (VIDEO).
• Pfizer Spokesman John Legend Roasted Over Ad For Vaccine Boosters – So They Turn Off Replies.

The Epoch Times:

• Spy Balloon Marks Beginning of a Nuclear Fear Campaign from China: Expert.

Twitter: 

• @GameofTrades_ - The stock market is showing extreme signs of GREED. It’s only the 6th time it’s happened in history 5 out of 6 signals marked significant market tops. (graph)
• @OldRowSwig - SOURCE: “The tell in this statement is, “prompted the board to solicit…and that internal letter was leaked”. The board is admitting the coup right here. 
• @DrewHLive - Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group claims one of the obstacles to achieving globalization and a “new order” is “nationalism” at the World Government Summit 2023 in Dubai. He cites Trump’s “America First” agenda as an obstacle. He also claims the “pandemic” made globalism stronger. (video)
• @unusual_whales - The US Virgin Islands has said that, "JPMorgan, $JPM, knowingly, negligently, and unlawfully provided and pulled the levers through which recruiters and victims were paid and was indispensable to the operation and concealment of the Epstein trafficking enterprise."
• @bennyjohnson - Important reminder that the CDC, NIH, Dr. Fauci and every vaccine mandate tyrant who screamed at you to “wear a mask!” so we can “STAY SAFE” are totally SILENT as children breathe in this black death. The Karens never cared about your safety. They only cared about power. Evil frauds. (pic)
• @OneAddyAdds - Ted Murphy is a resident of East Palestine, Ohio. Ted lives right near the fallout site and moved his mother immediately after the derailment, but before the explosion. Sunday after the derailment, he came back to her insulin and encountered the chemical fallout. (video)
• @UnwokablePod - East Palestine is the new Ground Zero. (video)
• @theinformantofc - WATCH - Before the derailment, recorded footage shows the #NorfolkSouthern train passing through Salem, #Ohio, with flames and sparks under at least one of the cars. (video) 
• @amuse - Shocking #ProjectVeritas-style undercover reporting of a massive election interference operation called #TeamJorge. The team operates tens of thousands social media accounts and hacks telegram and gmail to manipulate elections.
• @MorningBrew - Optimism abound? Bank of America's latest global fund manager survey reveals that just 24% of investors expect a global recession this year, down from 77% in November. Even more, 83% of fund managers say inflation will continue to ease over the next 12 months.
• @CitizenFreePres - Pete Buttigieg downplays the East Palestine train derailment: "While this horrible situation has gotten a particularly high amount of attention, there are roughly 1,000 cases a year of a train derailing." (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 934,700 Reports(+5,474 from prior week) Through February 3rd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.25 +1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.75 +.75 basis point. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 125.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  62.3 +.2%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 -14.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.46%.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by tech and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Less Dovish Fed Speak, Earnings Outlook Worries, Transport/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.7 +2.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .90%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.4 -.03%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.6 -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.1 +2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -5.5%

• NYSE Arms .79 +6.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.7 +.97%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 367.7 +3.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 326.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.8 -1.0% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 382.99 +.28%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.5 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 230.25 +1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.6 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.75 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 10.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.0 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 100.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .62 -4.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.77% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.90%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 52.0 euros/megawatt-hour -4.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.0 -7.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 81.2 -1.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.5 -.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 223.96 -.10:  Growth Rate +.2% unch., P/E 18.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.42% -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 -3.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -78.0 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.50% +8.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 72.0%(+1.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 45.8%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -46 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my industrial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long