Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.6% 2) Oil Service -1.4% 3) Education -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VAL, BIDU, EPAM, CSGP, WSC, HROW, EVBG, SBAC, NHI, TERN, RGEN, CWAN, SBGI, BTAI, LIVN, STAA, MTDR, CERE, CRL, HCKT, KEYS and ZIP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SRNE 2) TBT 3) CWH 4) TJX 5) TOL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZIP 2) TILE 3) KEYS 4) RIG 5) DPZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• Homebuilders +1.6% 2) Cyber Security +1.4% 3) Construction +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LUNR, EBIX, LZB, PANW, XPER, PRG, APLS, SPT, IBP, WING, VRT, ATRC, TGNA, BMBL, NDSN, CWH, TOL, MTW and NRDS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PANW 2) ESPR 3) REI 4) TJX 5) DPZ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LLAP 2) BRY 3) PANW 4) WIX 5) FVRR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Potential Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (BABA)/16.52
• (AEP)/1.00
• (AMT)/2.52
• (AAWW)/5.20
• (BBWI)/1.62
• (CARS)/.49
• (CBRE)/1.20
• (LNG)/7.08
• (DISH)/.46
• (DPZ)/3.98
• (FCN)/1.35
• (GPC)/1.88
• (IRM)/.75
• (MRNA)/4.60
• (MYGN)/-.17
• (NTES)/7.82
• (NEM)/.45
• (NKLA)/-.57
• (PZZA)/.67
• (PWR)/1.61
• (SPTN)/.32
• (VIPS)/3.32
• (W)/-1.66
• (YETI)/.79
  

After the Close:

• (ADSK)/1.81
• (BYND)/-1.20
• (SQ)/.30
• (BKNG)/22.08
• (CVNA)/-2.37
• (CWK)/.50
• (EIX)/1.09
• (EOG)/3.40
• (PODD)/.19
• (INTU)/1.44
• (LYV)/-.92
• (MTZ)/.98
• (MELI)/2.62
• (OII)/.19
• (OLED)/.95
• (WBD)/-.24
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to -.25 versus -.49 in Dec. 
• 4Q GDP revisions.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 200K versus 194K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1700K versus 1696K prior.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb.  is estimated to fall to -3 versus -1 in Jan. 
• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory is estimated to rise by +2,881,830 barrels versus a +1,628,300 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +611,330 barrels versus a +2,316,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -817,330 barrels versus a -1,285,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.18% versus a -1.4% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Japan CPI report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA nat gas inventory report and the (UNM) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 51.2% of Issues Advancing, 45.3% Declining
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 56.0%(+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.0 -4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.5 -1.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,792.2 -.09%
  
• Vix 23.3 +1.9%
• Total Put/Call .95 -8.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.69 +62.5%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• China Calls Russia Ties ‘Solid as Rock’ Amid Ukraine Peace Push.  
• New Zealand Delivers Half-Point Rate Hike, Still Sees 5.5% Peak.
  
• Asia Stocks Track US Declines on Rising Fed Fears: Markets Wrap.
• Tesla Undercuts Average US Car by Almost $5,000 in EV Shakeout.
• Blackouts Hit San Francisco Area as Winds Strike Before Snow.  
• Citigroup’s Jane Fraser Bucks Rivals as 2022 Pay Rises to $24.5 Million.  
• Tax Breaks Threaten Remote Work If Cities Start Enforcing Them.  
• ‘Historic’ Winter Storm to Dump Snow From California to East Coast.  
• In South Florida, an Anti-Cathie Wood Investor Is Quietly Building a Stock Empire.   
• Biden’s Fed Vice Chair Search Seen Focusing on Three Ex-Treasury Officials Under Obama.
• Investors Stung by Treasuries Rout Brace for Next Fed Blow.
• US Stocks in Thrall of Fed Have Further to Fall, History Shows.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Jury Convicts Mexico’s Former Top Cop of Drug Trafficking.
• Russia, China Challenge U.S.-Led World.
• Justices Express Skepticism at Holding Google Liable for Content.
• Office Landlord Defaults Escalate as Lenders Brace for More Distress.
• China’s Xi Plans Moscow Visit as Putin Wages War.
• Crypto Trader Says Code Let Him Withdraw Millions. Prosecutors Say He Crossed a Line.
• McKinsey Intends to Eliminate as Many as 2,000 Jobs.
• Walmart, Home Depot Earnings Dented by Spending on Basics.

Fox News:

• Gavin Newsom predicted a massive deficit for California — but the reality was even worse.
• Georgia players sound off after White House doesn't invite national champs.

CNBC.com:

• Amazon employees push CEO Andy Jassy to drop return-to-office mandate.
• U.S. home sales post 12th straight monthly decline; house price inflation cools.
• Why it’s so hard to build new electrical transmission lines in the U.S.
• Coinbase beats on revenue and earnings, but usage continues to decline.
• Here’s how Wall Street bought hundreds of thousands of single-family homes since the Great Recession.
• The wedding boom is winding down but inflation is still driving up the cost to say ‘I do’.

MarketWatch:               

• Financial markets wake up to outside risk of almost 6% fed-funds rate by July.
  
• Stock-market rally could peak before first quarter is over, say JPMorgan strategists.
  
• The stock market booked its worst day of 2023 because investors aren’t sure where rates will peak.
  
• ‘Not a time to buy’: S&P 500 exiting ‘best era’ in decades for earnings growth amid ‘dried up’ liquidity.

Zero Hedge:

• US Believes Russia Conducted 'Satan 2' ICBM Test While Biden Was In Ukraine.
• Minnesota Bar Owner Faces $350,000 In Fines For Defying State COVID-19 Restrictions.
• California City Council Member Arrested On Voter Fraud Charges: Sheriff.
• Over 1 Million Gallons Of Contaminated Water Excavated From Ohio Train Derailment Site.
• Mood In Washington Shifting In Favor Of Jets For Ukraine.
• ChatGPT Co-Creator Says The World May Not Be "That Far Away From Potentially Scary" AI.
• Explaining The Value Of Labor To Leftists Who Hate The Concept Of Work.
• US stocks declined after strong PMI data spurred further hawkish rate pricing - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Bill Gates' Daughter Jennifer Moves Into Sprawling $51 Million, 8,900 Sq. Ft. NYC Mansion.
• Hot PMI data raises Fed terminal pricing, hitting stocks and bonds - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Jim Quinn: March Of Folly - The Fall Of American Empire.
• The War On Musk: Washington Post Slammed Over Twitter Hit Piece.
• Credit Suisse Crashes To All-Time Low After Regulators Probe If Chairman Lied About "Stabilizing" Outflows.
• Bond Bloodbath Triggers Biggest Stock Puke Of Year.

Newsmax:  

• House Panel to Hold Hearing on Policy Toward China 'Aggression'.
• Bill Donohue: Newsmax Removal Un-American.
• Devin Nunes: Left Threatens Conservative Media Ads.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• THEY’RE SCARED: Democrats And A Certain RINO Are Melting Down Over Tucker Carlson Releasing 41,000 Hours Of J6 Footage.
• Reckitt Recalls 145,000 Cans of Baby Formula Amid Shortage.
• Study Finds Egg Yolk Blocks COVID Virus in Body – At Same Time Chicken Farms Are Burning Down and There’s an Egg Shortage in America.
• REPORT: Biden’s DOD Allowed An Unsecured Server To Spill Sensitive American Military Emails Online For TWO WEEKS.
• Before His Death, Trump Advisor Curtis Ellis Exposed The Dark Side Of China’s Rise In The Chilling Book “Pandemonium”.
• NYC Mayor Adams Lectures DeSantis on Twitter, Gets Humiliated.
• UNLV Football Player Ryan Keeler Dies Suddenly At 20-Years-Old.
• Trump: Biden is Pushing us into World War III – Here’s How I’d Stop It.
• It’s Worse Than First Reported – Illinois Has 930 Schools Where Only 1 in 10 Children Can Do Math at Grade Level.
• EXCLUSIVE: Project Veritas Staffers tell Board: Quit or We Walk!
• “Your Strategic Imperative Is Defending the United States” – Elon Musk to Woke Military.
• WATCH: East Palestine Mayor Slams Biden For Giving Millions to Ukraine — Says ‘He Doesn’t Care about Us’.

The Epoch Times:

• Senate Intel Leaders Seek to Enhance Administration’s Tools to Stop Flow of US Tech to China’s Military.
• China Container Freight Index Plunges for Five Consecutive Months Due to Weak Exports.

Twitter: 

• @GameofTrades_ - Higher for longer narrative getting stronger. (graph)
• @ProfanityNewz - Earlier today a massive fire broke out following mass casualty explosion at a metal facility in Bedford, Ohio. (video)
• @BernieSpofforth - NET ZERO - ‘Scientists’ now calling for WW11 style rationing of food, petrol & energy, to accelerate net zero and save the planet from the Climate emergency. Digital ID, Social Credit scoring & CBDC’s incoming, can you see the nudge?
• @TuckerCarlson - The President of the United States is personally visiting a corrupt foreign country to announce a half billion dollars in new spending. Meanwhile you have a mushroom cloud over East Palestine, Ohio; the animals are dying and the water is glowing. (video)
• @LoveWorld_Poepl - #NEBRASKA :#VIDEO DERAILMENT OF A UNION PACIFIC FREIGHT TRAIN CARRYING COAL IN EAST OF GOTHENBURG! Approx. 31 Union Pacific train cars derailed. (video)
  
• @disclosetv - JUST IN - Unsecured DoD sever was spilling terabytes of internal U.S. military emails to the open internet for the past two weeks.
• @L_Team10 - #USA, #Now Massive fire breaks out a Brooklyn Lumber Storage Warehouse. (video)
• @unusual_whales - 57% of Americans can’t afford a $1,000 emergency expense, per Fortune.
• @SpartaJustice - Unfollow @Project_Veritas now. The removal of James O’Keefe is because he exposed Pfizer... (video)
  
• @DrEliDavid - Israel court ordered Ministry of Health to release the agreement with Pfizer. These two pages contain the section titled “Liability & Indemnity Provision”. I wish this were a joke, but it's not...

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 936,483 Reports(+1,783 from prior week) Through February 10th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.75 +7.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 74.0 +7.5 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 130.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.73%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  60.6 +.07%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 -11.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.9 -.22%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%.

• S&P 500 futures +.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by tech and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stock Declining Substantially into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.9 +7.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.56%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.8 -.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.4 +.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.3 +8.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -13.1%

• NYSE Arms .90 -.10%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.81 +5.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 383.86 +2.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 313.0 -9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.4 +4.5% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 399.95 +3.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 194.0 basis points +8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.5 +4.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 247.90 +4.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.1 -1.31%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 11.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  154.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 505.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.54 -.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.80% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.5 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.7 +3.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 79.4 -10.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -.7 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.07 +.05:  Growth Rate +.2% unch., P/E 17.9 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.42% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .24 -2.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -78.50 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.50% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 75.2%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 57.6%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -200 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral