Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -4.1% 2) Oil Service -3.5% 3) Regional Banks -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ESAB, DK, ETN, APA, BILI, SQM, CVBF, IR, BX, ASO, HUBB, DAWN, TFC, RAPT, JCI, FLR, SLG, FRC, BHF, PLUG, ZION, CMA, ALLE, WING, CAT, KEY, TT, VKTX, TGLS, LNC, XRX, CARR, NEO, EVA, MPC, CLF, X, CALM, DINO, HEES, NUE, WCC, ATKR, TH, PBF, PKX, NAPA, VLO, SDRL, WIRE, TITN, URI, STLD, DWAC, HRI, WSC, IGMS, CVI, TEX, AYI, MTW, ZIM and AI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PCT 2) AI 3) BUD 4) UWMC 5) CAG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ONCT 2) AI 3) AMC 4) STEM 5) SWK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Giold & Silver +3.1% 2) Medical Equipment +.4% 3) Utilities +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EHC, WWE, RPD, LSI and EXR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BCLI 2) FYBR 3) BTG 4) SONO 5) EDR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVAV 2) EHC 3) RFL 4) BFLY 5) CDLX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (CAG)/.64
• (SCHN)/.19
• (SMPL)/.30
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for March is estimated at 210K versus 242K in Feb. 
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Feb. is estimated at -$68.8B versus -$68.3B in Jan.

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US PMI revisions.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for March is estimated to fall to 54.4 versus 55.1 in Feb.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,611,860 barrels versus a -7,489,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,910,710 barrels versus a -2,904,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -719,710 versus a +281,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.24% versus a +1.7% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (FDX) Drive Investor Update and the (WM) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.5 -.1
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 20.9% of Issues Advancing, 76.9% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 45.5%(-2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.8 -1.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,081.5 +.63%
  
• Vix 19.6 +5.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.09 +18.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.15 -1.71%
  

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.75 -3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 71.5 -1.5 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 117.9 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.2 -.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.36 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.7 +.69%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.33%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, US Economic Data, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 +2.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.16%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.6 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.4 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 +1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.4 +1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -8.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 +18.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 756.9 +1.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.4 -1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 444.0 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.59 -.36% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 382.53 -9.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.33 -1.09%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 230.15 +.29%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.79 -.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 50.0 basis points +6.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 +2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  152.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 679.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.84 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.37%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.4 euros/megawatt-hour +7.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -3.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.2 -1.3 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.11 +.13:  Growth Rate +1.7% unch., P/E 18.2 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.29% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.42 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.02 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -57.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +1.71% -78.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 56.9%(+10.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 47.3%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -43 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +146 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long