Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Gaining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.5 -4.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .65% -20.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 +1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.97 +.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.5 -1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.9 -3.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 +21.0
  

• Total Put/Call .94 unch.

• NYSE Arms .81 -35.7% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$223.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.88 -1.43%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 330.29 -2.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 315 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.7 -1.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 206.4 -2.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.2 -2.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.28 -.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 122.8 +2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.0 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 944.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 74.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.98 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.35% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.5 +8.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.4 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.5 -1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(52 of 500 reporting) -2.9% +1.0 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.73 +.03:  Growth Rate +10.0% unch., P/E 19.7 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.71% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.35 +.20: Growth Rate +37.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.1 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .61 -20.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -25.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.39% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.2% -1.4 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 52.6%(+8.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 50.6%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +303 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +172 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.9% 2) Healthcare Providers -.7% 3) Airlines -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RCUS, PLL, GCT, COUR, CELH and IRBT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) INVZ 2) FAST 3) DFS 4) IRBT 5) STLA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IRBT 2) ASTS 3) GDHG 4) CMBM 5) ESPR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +5.0% 2) Computer Hardware +3.8% 3) Defense +2.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EWTX, SMCI, TCN, MGNX, SILK, W, ALLY, MRUS, DELL, CLS, FVRR, EDR, TRV, CGEM, VKTX, PYPL, ARM, PTVE, TNK, KMPR, CRDO, QCOM, AMD, TXN, PSTG, PLAB, VRT, AVGO, AMAT and CDNS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GFI 2) FAST 3) IRBT 4) EW 5) SMCI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SMCI 2) MESA 3) SAVE 4) EWTX 5) RVYL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BOH)/1.00

After the Close: 

• (AGYS)/.26
• (BRO)/.53
• (UAL)/1.70
• (ZION)/.88
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Dec. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.5% decline in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The TD Cowen Mining Conference, Jefferies Consumer Summit and the (SMCI) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 -2.2
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 41.3% of Issues Advancing, 56.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 -31.0% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$143.2M
  
• 72 New 52-Week Highs, 33 New Lows
• 58.0%(+.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.0 +5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.7 +1.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 137.0 +.15%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,023.7 +.35%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (Greed) +8.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.8 -17.6%
  
• Vix 13.7 -3.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 -4.3%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Red Sea Unrest Is Bad News for the World’s Fragile Food Supply.
• US Presses Ahead With ‘Least Bad’ Option in Confronting Houthis. 
• Houthis Say They’re Improving Military Might in Defiance of US.
• China’s Travelers Stay Home, Draining $130 Billion From Global Tourism.
• Dimon Says China Risk-Reward Equation Has ‘Changed Dramatically’.
• Asian Equities Rise as Tech Rally Bolsters Mood: Markets Wrap.
• Congress Approves Funding to Avert US Government Shutdown. 
• Mobile App Kaspi.kz’s US IPO Raises $1 Billion for Investors.
• Trump Asks Supreme Court to Keep Him on Colorado Ballot.
• US Prepares Rule Forcing Banks to Tap Fed Discount Window. 
• China Is Buying Up US Farmland, But Just How Much Isn’t Clear.
• JPMorgan Lifts CEO Jamie Dimon’s Pay to $36 Million for 2023.
• Walmart Is Boosting the Average Store Manager’s Salary to $128,000.
• US Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Level Since May.

Zero Hedge:

• Fani Under Pressure: Judge In Trump-Georgia Case Orders DA To Explain Misconduct Allegations.
• Journalist Uncovers "Shadowy Network" Of NGOs Facilitating US Border Invasion.
• 3 Gun Rights Cases Before the Supreme Court You Should Know About.
• Netanyahu In Blistering Rebuke Of US Post-War Plans: "Israel Will Control Entire Area From The River To The Sea".
• At Least 9 Killed In Suspected Jordanian Airstrikes On Syria.
• Dem Rep. Doesn't Understand 'Legal' Vs. 'Illegal' Immigration - Wants To Remove Statue Of Liberty.
• Legal Blow: Hunter's Defense Hammered By Discovery Of Cocaine On Gun Pouch.
• The World's Coal-Fired Power-Generation Hit A Record High In 2023.
• Chinese Lab Sequenced COVID-19 Weeks Before Beijing Disclosed Data.
• The Biggest, New Reporting Law For Business That You Probably Never Heard Of Is Ripe For Political Abuse.
• US stocks gained amid tech strength and the lowest initial jobless claims since September 2022 - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "We've Memory-Holed How Awful Things Were" - Axios Beclowns Itself In Anti-Trump Rant.
• VDH: The Hysterical Style In American Politics.
• Regulator Readies For End Of Fed Bank Bailout Fund As 'Arb' Volumes Explode Higher.
• Tech leads gains as jobless claims hit lows since September '22 - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• WHO Head: 'Global Compliance' Needed For Next Pandemic.
• Stocks Gain As Senate StopGap Trumps Hindenbergs, HawkSpeak, & Hard-Data 'Bad News'.

Wall Street Journal:

• Pakistan’s Strike in Iran Shows Tehran’s Projection of Power Has Limits.
• The Multibillion-Dollar Bet That Truckers Will Ditch Diesel for Electricity.
• The $8.8 Trillion Cash Pile That Has Stock-Market Bulls Salivating.
• Uvalde Response Failed at Every Point, Federal Report Says.
• Pentagon’s Rehab of Nuclear-Missile Arsenal Hit by Soaring Costs.
• Spotify Dominates Audio Streaming, but Where Are the Profits?
• Drugmakers Raise Prices of Ozempic, Hundreds of Other Drugs.
• Nikki Haley Has a South Carolina Problem.

CNBC.com:

• iRobot shares tank 30% on report EU plans to block Amazon acquisition.
• Top CEOs fear that volatile supply chains are now just the new normal.
• Mark Zuckerberg indicates Meta is spending billions of dollars on Nvidia AI chips.
• Congress passes stopgap bill to prevent a shutdown until March, sending it to Biden.

 MarketWatch.com:

• These Americans are struggling to pay their bills on time: ‘Financial stress appears to have risen,’ New York Fed says.
• Wendy’s taps PepsiCo executive to be burger chain’s new CEO.
• Inflation is ‘far from dead’: Why one large asset manager doubts U.S. can hit 2%.
• Super Micro’s blowout numbers are latest bit of good news for chip industry.
• Macy’s to lay off 13% of corporate staff, close five stores.
• Fed’s Bostic makes case for first rate cut in July-September quarter.

Newsmax:

• US: No Way to Solve Israel Security, Without Palestinian State
• No Labels Asks for DOJ Probe Over 'Illegal Conspiracy' by Dems.
• IDF Chief: War With Hezbollah 'More Likely' Now.

Fox News:

• Terms that feds suggested banks use to search private records went far beyond 'Trump' and 'MAGA'.
• Mark Cuban ratchets up explosive feud with Elon Musk, defends his stance on DEI.
• Reactions pour in after first-grader disciplined for saying ‘Jesus Christ’: ‘This is so sad’.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Report: Michelle Obama Angling to Replace Joe Biden for President
• Denver Hospital In Financial Crisis: Surge of Illegals Contributes to $130M in “Uncompensated Care”.
• Joe Biden’s Stop at Cook Out Restaurant in Raleigh BACKFIRES After State Senator Points Out Shocking Change to Menu Prices in Just 3 Years (VIDEO)
• Elon Musk Issues Funny Response After World Economic Forum Hosts Wacky Tribal Ritual on Stage (VIDEO).
• Trump Beating Biden with Crucial Independent Voters by 11 Points.
• Donald Trump Jr. Says Tucker Carlson is ‘Certainly’ a Contender for VP (VIDEO).
• Illegal Alien From Haiti Charged with Rape of Disabled Person Released by Boston Court in Defiance of ICE’s Detainer Request.
• OH MY: Bizarre Footage Emerges Showing Woke, Anti-White United Airlines CEO Performing in Drag (VIDEOS).
• “Tricky Nikki” Haley… Exposed as a Globalist Flip Flopper (Video).
• Russia on Death of Gonzalo Lira:  “Kiev Is Allowed to Torture and Kill Americans, and Everyone Keeps Their Mouth Shut”.
• Ultra-Globalist European Union Is Covering Up for Liberal Polish PM Tusk’s Illegal Actions – Hungarian MEPs File Official Protest With European Commission.
• Did Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Play a Role in Alaska Airlines Plane Losing Door Mid-Flight? Is DEI Endangering Lives? Elon Musk Seems to Think So After Seeing Boeing’s Corporate Filings and DEI Incentives.
• WHAT A CLOWN: Leftist Gen Z Democrat Congressman Proposes Bill to Remove the STATUE OF LIBERTY – Gets Brutally Mocked on Social Media (VIDEO).
• E. Jean Carroll Is A Nutcase And Trump Proves It With Receipts: ‘Most People Think Of Rape As Being Sexy’.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Military Leader Remains Missing Amid Speculation of Wider Purge: Analysts.
• Free World Must Stand Up for Taiwan.

X:

• @FLVoiceNews - Florida Board of Education passes rule banning DEI at public colleges.
• @JohnBasham - BREAKING: @JamesOKeefeIII Uncovers "Shadowy Network" Of Non-Government Organization's Are Facilitating The U.S. Border Invasion! The @RedCross is working right alongside #Alitas Trafficking Illegal Aliens Into The States! (video)
• @VigilantFox - DISEASE X: The next terror campaign on the world is already being planned, says Dr. David Martin. "What they're doing right now is they're planning the sequence of events where they can actually cascade another terror campaign, which then triggers not only the need for allegedly another medical countermeasure, but it also, this time, is going to involve the other piece that they failed to achieve with the COVID campaign, which is the eradication of cash-based transactions ..." Argentina President Javier Milei Roars ‘Long Live Freedom’ In His Closing Remarks at Davos 2024. “Do not be intimidated, intimidated either by the political caste or by parasites who live off the state. Do not surrender to a political class that only wants to stay in power and retain its privileges. (video)
• @LayahHeilpern - The WEF just confirmed a global CBDC. They admit they will track what you eat, your travels, who you speak to and everything else you do in life. But of course they’re doing this to save us from the “climate emergency”. (video)
• @BGatesIsaPsycho - WHO Director - Disease X Director General at unelected corrupt World Health Organisation asked directly en-route to WEF Davos conference - by independent journalist @CSmiles_News “When do you plan on releasing disease X?” (video) Pandemic of the Vaccinated. New study of 51,000 people demonstrates exact Linear Relationship between ICU submission & contraction rates. Basically more Covid Shots = More Infection & More Risk. (video) Fox News dropping truth bombs on the WEF. “You have to accept the World Economic Forum is a fanatical political organisation that uses fear manipulation like Covid……” (video)
• @PeterSweeden - The elites: Fly private jets. Dine on finest meat. Build mansions. Drive luxury cars. Meanwhile telling you: Stop flying. Eat insects. Live in a pod. Get rid of your car. It has nothing to do with stopping climate change. It's all about control. DO YOU GET IT NOW?! At the WEF meeting they now say that countries have to sign up to the WHO pandemic treaty to be prepared for "Disease X". It's all about TOTAL control. (video) This is the real reason they are going after the farmers. "Klaus Scwhab is telling people to eat insects...in the end you will own nothing and still be happy, but Mr. Klaus Schwab will own everything" SHARE - The farmers are saying NO the WEF agenda. (video) WOAH The French farmers are BLOCKING the roads by dumping manure in protest. NO FARMERS = NO FOOD. (video) THIS IS INSANE! Speaker at the WEF says that farming and fishing is "ecocide". They want it to be a "serious crime". SHARE if you stand with the farmers. (video)
  
• @Songpinganq - Klaus Schwab Repeatedly Praised China's Smart 15-Minute Cities Project, where 'Minority Report' has become to life —— you can be arrested for using more electricity than ''normal'', or when you leave the zone which you are registered to live without police permission. (video)
• @DrAseemMalhotra - Now we have direct evidence that Pfizer fuelled the vaccine mandate policies most likely AFTER they knew it wasn’t stopping transmission and was causing unprecedented levels of serious harms. This is how pathologically self interested (psychopathic) corporations operate. WAKE UP! BREAKING: BBC Parliament. ‘The covid mRNA vaccine is top of the list in the hierarchy of causes of excess cardiovascular deaths until proven otherwise. Those that ignore these cold hard facts are either unaware of the evidence, wilfully blind or lack a conscience’ (video)
• @GenFlynn - Every freedom loving person on planet earth needs to listen to this full speech given by the new President of Argentina, Javier Milei. His speech is really quite extraordinary. (video) “International Attorney confirms that Bill Gates, Klaus Schwab and many other WEF politicians are using Climate Change, Pandemics and Wars to bring about total world control through the United Nations and World Economic Forum. He declares that they must be stopped and should have been stopped a long time ago. Now is the time to unite humanity and defend life and freedom.” (video)
• @ImMeme0 - NEW: JAVIER MILEI, the president of Argentina slams socialism in front of a bunch of globalists and socialists at the WEF: “I'm here to tell you that the western world is in danger and it is endangered because those who are supposed to have to defend the values of the West are co-opted by a vision of the world that inextricably leads to socialism and thereby to poverty. (video)
• @wideawake_media - "The plan of the Great Reset is that you will die with nothing." Australian senator, Malcolm Roberts, dropping serious truth bombs about the WEF—and its dystopian Great Reset agenda—in the Australian parliament. "Klaus Schwab's 'life by subscription' is really serfdom. It's slavery. Billionaire, globalist corporations will own everything—homes, factories, farms, cars, furniture—and everyday citizens will rent what they need, if their social credit score allows." (video) "If you are a climate change campaigner, but you also travel around the world in a private jet, you're a hypocrite." In a rare example of actual journalism by the BBC, Bill Gates becomes visibly unsettled after being called a climate hypocrite, right to his face. (video) "For god's sake, stop complying. Start rebelling. They are out to get you if you do not resist." German MEP, Christine Anderson: The so-called "pandemic" was a beta test—conducted by unelected globalists—to see how easy it would be to seize totalitarian control, under the pretext of a global "emergency". (video) "We're undergoing a soft coup... under the pretext of pandemic preparedness and the biosecurity agenda." Dr. Meryl Nass explains how the WHO's proposed pandemic treaty will enable the WHO "to take over jurisdiction of everything in the world by saying that climate change, animals, plants, water systems [and] ecosystems are all central to health". (video)
• @JamesMelville - The German government is giving €8 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2024. Meanwhile, they are cutting subsidies and introducing new taxes on German farmers. The farmers have had enough. The huge convoy protest across Germany continues. (video)
• @WallStreetSilv -  Trump promises to ban Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC). This is critical to blocking the government from controlling every transaction in your life.
• @Travis_in_Flint - Taylor Swift has burned 138 tons of Jet Fuel visiting her boyfriend over the last 3 months. Stop letting her tell you how to vote.
• @disclosetv -  NEW - Space Force commander: "I'm here to testify about the ongoing Marxist-inspired efforts to subvert and weaken our military and broader American society." (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 997,917 Reports(+9,212 from prior week) Through November 3rd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.25 -2.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 66.0 -3.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 128.10 USD/Metric Tonne -1.04%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.92 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.5 +2.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.97 -.22%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.