Monday, January 22, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.75 +3.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 67.0 +2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 131.60 USD/Metric Tonne +2.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.9 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.4 +.28%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.0 -.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Gaining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.4 +.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .52% -6.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.6 -1.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.6 -.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.32 -1.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.9 -2.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 +19.0
  • Total Put/Call .85 -5.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.84 +106.7% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$98.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.88 +.21%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 327.74 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 306 -9
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.62 -1.6% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 203.01 -1.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.60 +1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 178.97 +.79%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 124.99 +.81%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.37 -.05%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.1 basis points +.1 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 937.0 -7.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.88 -.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.35% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 130.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.3 euros/megawatt-hour -4.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.1 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.5 +2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.1 -2.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(52 of 500 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.94 +.21:  Growth Rate +10.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.70% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.84 +.49: Growth Rate +37.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 30.9 +.8
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .69 +8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -28.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.38% -1.0 basis point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.1% -.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 58.4%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 54.0%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +123 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MMM)/2.31
  • (DHI)/2.87
  • (GE)/.90
  • (HAL)/.80
  • (IVZ)/.40
  • (JNJ)/2.28
  • (LMT)/7.29
  • (PCAR)/2.25
  • (PG)/1.70
  • (RTX)/1.24
  • (VZ)/1.08
After the Close: 
  • (BKR)/.48
  • (CNI)/1.97
  • (ISRG)/1.48
  • (NFLX)/2.21
  • (STLD)/2.63
  • (TXN)/1.47
  • (ADM)/1.67
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Index for Jan.

10:00 am EST

  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to -6.0 versus -11.0 in Dec.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US retail sales reports, 2Y T-Note auction, API weekly crude oil stock report, TD Global Mining Conference, (KMI) investor day, (V) annual meeting, (BDX) general meeting and the (ASH) general meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +24.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 +.9
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 75.7% of Issues Advancing, 22.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.80 +102.2% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$155.4M
  • 155 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
  • 61.2%(+2.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 +7.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.6 -1.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 138.7 +.58%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,100.5 +.18%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 72.0 (Greed) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.6 -15.4%
  • Vix 13.4 +.5%
  • Total Put/Call .90 unch.

Sunday, January 21, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
PredictIt:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
X:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 -1.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.5 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 129.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.15%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.98 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.91 +1.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.4 -1.8%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.96%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.63%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.