Saturday, March 09, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MELI), (ACM), (XYL), (RSG) and (MEG).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

Epoch Times:

X:
  • @glennbeck
  • @wendyp4545
  • @libsoftiktok
  • SCOOP: A student at @EastCentralHS in Indiana drove to school with an American flag on the back of his truck. The school reportedly responded by threatening to punish him if he didn't remove it. After hearing what happened, nearly 2 dozen other students flew American flags on their vehicles, protesting the school's decision!  The school caved, allowing students to fly flags on their vehicles but said they won't allow students to fly American flags next school year. Why do American schools hate America? (pic)
  • @JesseBWatters
  • @NetworksManager
  • @wideawake_media
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @VigilantFox
  • Candace Owens: “This PUPPET PRESIDENCY is nothing short of infuriating for the public to have to sit here and watch.” “We know that he does not have the mental faculties to lead. And therefore, there must exist a shadow government. Right? And we want to know who that shadow government is.” (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @TonyClimate
  • @VDHanson
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, March 08, 2024

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
 Wall Street Journal:

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

Epoch Times:

X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @glennbeck
  • @FDRLST
  • @laralogan
  • @SpeechUnion
  • BREAKING: FSU member and University College London (UCL) academic Michelle Shipworth has been BANNED from teaching her own course, after a Chinese student complained that discussing modern slavery in China was too "provocative".
  • @The_Nomad_News
  • @wideawake_media
  • BreakinNewz01
  • @VigilantFox
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @TonyClimate
  • @ImBradySmith
  • @ClownWorld
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,142.6 -.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 38,900.0 -1.0%
  • NASDAQ 16,185.6 -1.2%
  • Russell 2000 2,087.1 +.04%
  • NYSE FANG+ 9,848.7 -3.1% 
  • Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index 451.9 +5.0%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 167.1 -2.6%
  • Wilshire 5000 51,372.5 -.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,342.9 -1.4%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,713.5 +1.1%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 797.4 +.95%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.3 -.41%
  • NYSE Technology 4,793.6 -1.4%
  • Transports 15,767.5 -.8%
  • Utilities 856.5 +2.9%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 96.5 +1.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 40.9 +.66%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 202.8 +1.3%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 108.7 -.1%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 491,054 +.94%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 +74.0%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,666 +731
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -29.8 -15.3%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 224,790 +17.1%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,658,921 -.2%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -11.5%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.99 -14.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 146.0 +10.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.10 +18.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.0 -9.1%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.03 -7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .99 +2.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.1 +17.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .48 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.2 -2.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.91 +3.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.39 +4.9%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 15,815.9 -1.7%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  94.0 +5.0
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.077 Trillion +.31%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$.243 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 51.7 +11.2%
  • AAII % Bears 21.8 +2.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (Greed) -7.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 279.1 +.7%
  • Crude Oil 78.0/bbl. -2.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 252.7 -3.3%
  • Natural Gas 1.82 -1.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.4 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%
  • Heating Oil 264.1 -2.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 137.0 (1,000/metric ton) +1.5%
  • Gold 2,176.0 +4.5%
  • Silver 24.31 +5.2%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 417.1 +1.5%
  • Copper 388.9 +.7%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 379.0 USD/Metric Tonne -8.2%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 112.8 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%
  • CME Lumber  616.50 +3.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,462.1 +1.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +2.5% -.5 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.4 +47.2%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 66.7 -9.6%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +8.0% +n/a percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.67 +n/a:  Growth Rate +11.0% +n/a percentage point, P/E 20.8 +n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +55.2% +n/a percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.58 +n/a: Growth Rate +31.3% +n/a percentage points, P/E 31.8 +n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -6.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 51.4 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.3 +.6 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 3.0%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 97.0%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 3/20
  • US Dollar Index 102.77 -1.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,732.7 +.26%
  • Bitcoin/USD 68,624.6 +9.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.3 -1.0%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -39.75 -4.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.09% -9.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.502 Trillion -.39% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $1.978 Billion -10.1%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $164.022 Billion +.34%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.6 +3.7%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 192.6 +1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -16.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.2 +.2%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.74 +1.5%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 129.8 +3.7%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 117.9 -1.6%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.6 +3.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -.2%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 87.6 -2.8%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.8% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.4% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.72% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.11% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29% -3.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.7 -3.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 139.0 -2.8
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 286.0 -7.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 60.2 -6.0%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 192.6 -9.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 164.8 +1.1%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 825.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .63 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -2.0% +30.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,266.2B -.9%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,250 -.35%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% +10.0 basis points
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 52.6 +1.5%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.16% -14.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 188,200 +9.7%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.80% +10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -6.0% -4.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $99.5M -10.6%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.40/gallon +.07/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,251.0 +2.2%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,287.3/40 ft Box -5.9%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,312.1 -3.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 47.5 +11.8%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 49.37 +8.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 262,732 +1.3%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,568,447 +20.7%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +1.1%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Growth -1.4%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +8.3%
  • Regional Banks +4.1%
  • Banks +3.0%
  • Utilities +2.9%
  • Defense +2.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Retail -2.4%
  • Alt Energy -2.5%
  • Networking -2.6%
  • Software -2.6%
  • Electric Vehicles -3.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)
  • SWBI, SWIN, SLDB, IOT, TPC, OPRA, DQ, CLSK, EHAB, DOCU, SYM, CVNA, VITL, MSTR, COIN, CCL, CUK, GPS, CAVA and UBS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (26)
  • POWL, VET, TBBK, DELL, CRC, WSM, ERO, KVYO, VKTX, CMPS, PDD, ANF, AVGO, PBPB, MDB, YY, COST, IEP, PBR, SVV, PBR/A, EOLS, MRVL, MAX, RWAY and MGNX
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (ASAN)/-.10
  • (CASY)/2.13
  • (ORCL)/1.38
  • (MTN)/6.04
Economic Releases
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The CB Employment Trends Index for Feb., NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index, 3Y T-Note auction, Barclays Healthcare Conference, BofA Consumer/Retail Conference, UBS Tech/Media/Internet Conference, Oppenheimer Healthcare MedTech/Services Conference, Leerink Biopharma Conference, JPMorgan Industrials Conference, JPMorgan Consumer Ingredients Conference, (ITRI) investor day, (SANM) annual meeting and the Deutsche Bank Media/Internet/Telecom Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +21.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.6 +.9
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 62.5% of Issues Advancing, 34.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.84 +31.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$65.5M
  • 246 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
  • 62.9% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 73.0 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.5 -1.9%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.5 -.06%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,105.6 -.66%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (Greed) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.2 -23.8%
  • Vix 14.6 +1.3%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -15.8%

Thursday, March 07, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.5 to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.25 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 66.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.4 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.6 +1.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.5 -.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.24%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.