Saturday, September 21, 2024

Today's Headlines

Zerohedge:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (ADBE), (LVMUY) and (CFRUY).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:   

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @officer_Lew
  • @cb_doge
  • Elon Musk endorses Trump, and then this happens: • Secret Service probes Elon over a joke he posted. • California Governor wants to take legal action against Elon for posting a meme. • FAA propose $633,009 in civil penalties against SpaceX. • SEC intends to seek sanctions against Elon in Twitter probe.
  • @CollinRugg
  • @ImMeme0
  • @amuse
  • @stillgray
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TonySeruga
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, September 20, 2024

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @nicksortor
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @nataliegwinters
  • @LeadingReport
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @scrowder
  • @EndWokeness
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @CollinRugg
  • @jorma_gc
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @VigilantFox
  • @VernonForGA
  • @SarahisCensored
  • @KanekoaTheGreat

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Mid-East Regional War Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Transport/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.66% -7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 90.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.4 euros/megawatt-hour +4.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.5 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.8 +1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.5 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) +5.6% -7.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.66 +.06:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 350.63 +.21: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 32.7 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 15.25 basis point (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 65.5% -1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.27% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 50.1%(unch.) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 41.5%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +467 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +191 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -2.4% 2) Road & Rail -2.1% 3) Steel -2.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LEN, INOD, DAVA, CHWY, VTRS, NVO, FRO, RIVN, MBLY, FDMT, MLKN, FDX, APLS and SOC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FDX 2) CARR 3) YOU 4) HTZ 5) ITB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) APLS2) FDX 3) MLKN 4) VFS 5) SAGE
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) XBI 4) XLK 5) XLI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services +1.0% 2) Networking +1.0% 3) Utilities +.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  •  CEG, NNE, VST, BYRN, SMR, APGE, LEU, GME, MASI, CCJ, SBGI, CNTA, MIR, CRWD, SLVM, NRG, POWL, ALAB, SMMT, CNX, MTRX, IRDM, GPCR, TLN, BE, SIRI, CMP, UNFI, BTU, BWXT, PEG, NUVL, FTI, SKX, WEAV and NTCT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) OKLO 2) FDX 3) CEG 4) GENI 5) EXC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VST 2) CRWD 3) OKLO 4) CEG 5) BE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) TDIV 3) KRE 4) FTXL 5) FIW
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (AIR)/.82
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to -.2 versus -.34 in July.
9:45 am EST
  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 48.6 versus 47.9 in Aug.
  • The S&P Global US Services PMI for Sept. is estimated to fall to 55.3 versus 55.7 in Aug.
  • The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 54.7 versus 54.6 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, BofA Financials CEO Conference, RBC Industrials Conference, (FDX) annual meeting, (GIS) annual meeting and the Oppenheimer Sustainability Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST