Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GDS)/-2.20
• (GIS)/.96
• (KC)/-.73
• (OLLI)/1.19
• (SIG)/6.25
• (WSM)/2.94
  

After the Close: 

• (FIVE)/3.38
• (SMCI)/.54
• (WS)/.48
• (GES)/1.39
  

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 4.25-4.5%.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC presser/economic projections, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (NVDA) analyst meeting, BofA Industrials Conference, Sidoti Small-Cap Conference, (DGX) investor day and the KeyBanc Healthcare Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 +1.5
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 32.0% of Issues Advancing, 66.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .56 -15.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$243.3M
  
• 59 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 37.7% (-5.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.7 -.3

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.3 -.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.8 -.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,491.5 -.75%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 21.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 19.1 +16.6%
  
• Vix 21.7 +6.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -16.3%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Overlay Democrats approval ratings with Elon’s purchase of X and the issue immediately becomes clear. The moment that democrats lost the ability to control the flow of information and censor free speech their ratings went into a downward spiral.
• The very worst judges – those who repeatedly flout the law – should at least be put to an impeachment vote, whether that vote succeeds or not.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “Justice is coming for Hilary”. Wow - Trumps new campaign ad “Hilary Clinton broke the law to frame Trump as a Russian Traitor”. The Hammer of justice is coming for The Clintons & it can’t come soon enough. (video)
• Belgrade, Serbia. Over a million Serbs line the streets protesting their progressive Globalist Government & the State of their Country. It’s the same across almost every European Nation. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Elon Musk confirms the NGO scam is almost EXCLUSIVELY done by Democrats, “These NGOs are almost all left-wing NGOs that are being funded”. Ted Cruz “Why do they hate you so much?” “Elon Musk “Because we're clearly over the target. If DOGE was ineffective, if we were not actually getting rid of a bunch of waste and a bunch of that fraud, I mean, the fraud we we're seeing is over overwhelmingly on the left” “They hate me because DOGE is being effective and DOGE is getting rid of a lot of waste for that. People on the left were taking advantage of that. That's what it comes out to.” (video)
• OHH MY GOD! The ‘conspiracy theorists’ were right again. The Electronic Ear Tag on cattle that recently passed has NOTHING to do with disease traceability, the real reason is a new tax per cattle and to SLAUGHTER 10’s OF THOUSANDS OF CATTLE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE. Rep Harriet Hageman “The USDA for several years has been trying to force our cattle and bison producers to use what are called RFID or EID ear tags, electronic identification, ear tags. They wanna chip them all. I've been fighting against this, and they say it's for disease traceability.”
• Something very obvious needs to be pointed out about these Los Angeles, California Mahmoud Khalil protestors. These are professionally made banners and signs. There are A LOT of them. This is not stuff they just made in their homes. These are PAID protestors and highly organized. (video)
• It’s insane this was allowed to happen. - The average salary at the Department of Education was roughly $144,000 per year. - That number increased in 2025 to $145,489 per year. - There are an estimated 4,144 employees at the DoE. - That’s $602,906,000 annually JUST IN SALARIES. (video)
  

• @toobaffled

• You just can’t hate these grandiose things enough! The World Economic Forum (WEF) is demanding that global governments enforce bans on members of the general public growing food at home in order to supposedly lower “emissions.” The globalist organization claims that homegrown food contributes to “climate change.” The WEF argues that banning homegrown food will help governments comply with their targets for meeting “Net Zero” by 2030.

• @LauraLoomer

• I tracked down Hunter Biden in South Africa and PROVED that he was staying in a 5-star, oceanside villa despite claiming, in a signed declaration to the court, that he is BROKE. If Hunter paid for this trip on his own dime, he needs to be held accountable for PERJURY, and the Trump Administration needs to revoke his @SecretService protection immediately! Why are US taxpayers supporting Hunter’s luxury lifestyle abroad when his rich father is clearly capable of paying for Hunter’s private security on his own? (video)
• SCOOP! I have identified the reporter who hit President @realDonaldTrump in the face with a boom mic this week while he was speaking to the press on the tarmac. Her name is Danielle Kurtzleben @titonka. She is the newly appointed White House reporter for
  @NPR and a massive Trump hater and LGBTQ advocate who once suggested during the 2024 campaign that Trump only spoke in Howell, Michigan because it has ties to the KKK. Did she hit President Trump in the face on purpose? (video)

• @tedcruz

• An absolute bombshell from @elonmusk on the latest episode of Verdict. He reveals there are 14 magic money computers in the federal government that send money out of nothing. (video)

• @wildbarestepf

• I was a lifelong Democrat—voted Obama, Obama, Clinton, Biden. i spent most of my life on the left, fully convinced that the right was evil, that republicans were selfish and racist, and that leaving the party was basically selling your soul so it’s funny when libs now tell me “you don’t understand the left.” like bro, i didn’t just understand it—i lived it. i defended it. i believed in it. i was all in i held on for a long time bc i was so brainwashed into thinking the right was this monstrous force that wanted to burn the world down. but eventually, reality cracked through the narrative. and once i really saw it, i couldn’t unsee it. what really stands out to me now is how ashamed the left made me feel about being American—kind of in the same way they teach white people to feel guilty for things they had no part in. it’s a worldview built on guilt, on self-loathing, on the idea that success, pride, and strength are all somehow bad.

• @TheChiefNerd

• @elonmusk: "One of the biggest fraud holes we've uncovered ... is that the government can give money to a so called nonprofit ... They then give themselves ... insane salaries, expense everything, buy jets and homes ... on the taxpayer dime ... This is happening at scale." (video)

• @LaraLogan

• BOMBSHELL! One of the Islamic leaders behind the SHARIA LAW CITY being constructed in Josephine TX attacked President Trump, is upset a Palestine terror enabler is being deported and calls for Muslims to mobilize. Why is this city still being BUILT?! So…Gov Abbott? LTG Dan Patrick? AG Paxton? (video)

• @BennyJohnson

• Mike Davis sends SCORCHING message to Judge Amy Coney Barrett after Ruling Against DOGE Cuts: “Are you going to follow the Constitution or cower to the left’s mob? If you continue to sabotage the presidency, you lose legitimacy. You will lose everything.” (video)
• ABC: "I have some good news for you. The USDA says wholesale egg prices dropped for the 3rd straight week... $4.15 per dozen. That is down about $2.70 in just one week." Promises Made. Promises Kept. (video)

• @MAGAVoice

• Italy Prime Minister Georgia Meloni said people on the Left STEAL Elections. She is absolutely correct. (video)

• @DouglasAMacgregor

• BOMBSHELL: CDC and big pharma working behind closed doors with Congress to keep RFK Jr.'s people out of key roles.

• @Rothmus

• "So this guy wants to put up solar panels but he also wants to block out the sun, which the solar panels need to work."...

• @5dme81

• KABOOM! "I FOUND THE SOURCE OF WHERE ALL THESE ILLEGALS ARE GETTING PUT ON THE VOTER ROLLS"! [The Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC) is a nonprofit organization in the United States] (video)

• @WarClandestine

• Trump and his team heard your backlash about the Epstein files and Bondi, so they responded. Trump told you “Bondi has done a phenomenal job”. Elon told you that Bondi and Kash are fighting the entrenched bureaucracy and we need to give them time. Kash told you that “there will be no cover-ups, no missing documents, and no stone left unturned”. Bongino told you Kash and Bondi “have got it”, and we just need to let it play out. (video)

• @ValerieAnne1970

• 'Normal Blood Pressure'...Big Pharma Keeps Moving The Goalpost. 1940: Normal 100+Plus Your Age/95. 1970: Normal 160/90. 2000: Normal 140/90. 2017 & Now: Normal Needs To Be Less Than 120/80. Anti-Hypertensive Drugs worldwide achieved a revenue of $36.7 BILLION in 2024.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 48.0 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 75.0 +.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.8 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.44%

• S&P 500 futures -.1%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.2%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Growth Fears, Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Consumer Discretionary/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.62 +.41%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.2 euros/megawatt-hour -2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.7 -4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.8 -1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.4 +1.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +13.1% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.50 +.15:  Growth Rate +12.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.67 +.54: Growth Rate +19.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.3 +.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .20 +18.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +9.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 25.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.06% +35.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.1% -1.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 78.5% (+6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 54.5%(-3.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +448 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +106 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +97 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/tech/utility/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.7% 2) I-Banking +3.0% 3) Retail +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GES, ARQT, PSIX, QFIN, HSAI, BIDU, AEO, QBTS, ASND, VSCO, DEC, HOOD, PPTA, INTC, RDFN, GEL, YETI, SAIC, RDNT, TCOM, DAVA, YMM, CLPT, GEV, LITE, APP, RKT, SKE, MGNI, PAYC, EH, PDD, PHR, ANDE, SGML, EH, PDD, PHR, ANDE, SGML, KTOS, NCLH, KTOS, DPZ, NFLX, ATEN, EVER, CPNG, OXM, LIVN, AAL, ERJ, ERO, CCL, MNSO, JD, ERO, SQM, ACMR, ZD, AMD, X, CUK, BHE, TTD, IMCR, JBGS, HNRG, TME, TKO, TGLS, CDNS, NVST, TDC, OBDC, RDUS, UNM, PBR, ZTO, DASH, XPEV, MWA, BCYC, DNTH, NOV, OKTA, WB, SPG and OII

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VOD 2) ITUB 3) HUYA 4) URNM 5) PRMW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QUBT 2) GES 3) QMCO 4) VPER 5) NFLX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV2) IGV 3) XLF 4) XLY 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (TME)/1.22

After the Close: 

• (ZTO)/3.28
• (GDS)/-2.16
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Feb. is estimated to rise to 1381K versus 1366K in Jan.
• Building Permits for Feb. is estimated to fall to 1450K versus 1473K in Jan.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Jan.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +1.3% gain in Jan.
• The NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for March. 
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in Jan.
• Capacity Utilization for Feb. is estimated at 77.8% versus 77.8% in Jan.
• Manufacturing Production for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, 20Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, (NVDA) GTC AI Conference, weekly API crude oil stock report, (ADBE) investor meeting, (QCOM) annual meeting, (GLW) investor meeting, (BOX) analyst day, (TTC) annual meeting, Keybanc Healthcare Forum, BofA Electronic Payments Symposium, Oppenheimer Healthcare MedTech/Services Conference and the BofA Industrials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST