Friday, January 16, 2026

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @CNBC  
  • @TheSCIF
  • @GenFlynn
  • @RenzTom
  • @elonmusk 
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @TheMagaKing2
  • @jasonjamesbnn
  • I don't think Canadians understand how destructive this "new world order" with China is to their national sovereignty. The US reclaiming the Panama Canal was about sealing off that critical passage from China and Russia. The US removing Maduro from Venezuela was about cutting off China and Russia from vital resources. The US and Israel support for the citizen uprising in Iran is about cutting off China and Russia from vital resources and sealing off the Suez Canal. The US "purchase" of Greenland is about sealing off Arctic passages from China and Russia. The US is preparing for war—not necessarily with Russia, but a cold war with China turning hot. China is preparing to mobilize against Taiwan and then potentially Japan, The Philippines, etc. If they move to take Taiwan—which they have explicitly stated they plan to do before 2030—that will be the spark that sends the world back into global conflict.
  • @WhiteCoatWaste
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @ArthurMacwaters
  • @StephenM
  • @shipwreckshow
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • BREAKING: President Trump announces his new "Board of Peace" which includes: 1. Marco Rubio: US Secretary of State. 2. Jared Kushner: Former Advisor to Trump. 3. Steve Witkoff: US Special Envoy. 4. Tony Blair: Former Prime Minister of the UK. 5. Marc Rowan: CEO of Apollo. 6. Ajay Banga: World Bank President. 7. Robert Gabriel: US National Security Advisor.
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,944.0 -.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 49,471.3 -.1%
  • NASDAQ 23,547.9 -.5%
  • Russell 2000 2,682.9 +2.5%
  • NYSE FANG+ 15,520.7 -1.7%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 280.0 +5.9%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 35.3 +1.8%
  • Wilshire 5000 68,855.4 -.01%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,743.2 -.9%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,156.4 +.8%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 909.7 +3.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 265.2 -3.0%
  • NYSE Technology 7,498.9 -.7%
  • Transports 18,210.5 +.4%
  • Utilities 1,096.2 +2.6%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 117.7 +2.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 57.7 +1.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 252.70 +.3%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 131.1 +.5%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 600,220 +1.0%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 -3.4%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,732 +1,034
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -7.9 +.1%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 57,352 -11.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,968,879 +3.7%
  • Total Put/Call .75 unch.
  • OEX Put/Call .69 +12.3%
  • ISE Sentiment 156.0 +2.0%
  • NYSE Arms .92 -48.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 102.7 +1.4%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.68 +2.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.4 +6.6%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .61 -30.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.0 +6.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.71 +.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.34 +.96%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 20,933.8 +.9%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  96.0 -1.7
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.729 Trillion -.96%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$32.023 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 49.5 +16.5%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 301.8 -.2%
  • Crude Oil 59.9/bbl. +2.0%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 179.3 +1.3%
  • Natural Gas 3.1 -1.2%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 66.2 USD/Megawatt -2.7% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.9 euros/megawatt-hour +29.4%
  • Heating Oil 224.8 +6.2% 
  • Newcastle Coal 111.7 (1,000/metric ton) +3.3%
  • Gold 4,584.4 +1.9%
  • Silver 89.2 +12.1%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 169.1 -.4%
  • Copper 583.2 -1.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.7 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 17,150.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
  • CME Lumber 609.5 +8.1%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,312.9 -1.1%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 302.5 USD/Short Ton -.8%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +5.3% +.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.2 -1.9 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.5 +17.8%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 396.4 +26.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 +24.1%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(31 of 500 reporting) +17.5% -13.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.66 +1.34:  Growth Rate +16.1% +.5 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.18% -32.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.94 +3.41: Growth Rate +19.3% +.8 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.7 +8.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.3 -4.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.1 -4.9 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 5.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 95.0%(unch.) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 1/28/26
  • US Dollar Index 99.4 +.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,851.6 +.07%
  • Bitcoin/USD 94,988 +4.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 208.4 -.1%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.68 -.4%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 62.25 -1.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.22% +5.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.49% +7.0 basis points. 
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.534 Trillion +.13%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.899 Billion -26.5%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.4 +3.7%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.5 +.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 62.0 -1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.2 -2.0%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.0 +5.0%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 137.0 unch.
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.0 +4.2%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.74 +1.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.78 +.32%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 117.86 +.25%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% +10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.2% -10.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% +50.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.8% -20.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% -23.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.80 +13.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +4.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread .5 basis points +2.25 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 3.75 +.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 48.7 -.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 181.0 unch. 
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 403.5 -4.8% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 232.0 +1.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.4 +1.0%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 127.3 +1.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 94.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 592.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .51 -3.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.3% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,413.1B -.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 205,000 -3.1%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 48.8 -13.3%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.2% -3.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 348,000 +28.5%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.7% -.9 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +9.0% -5.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $179.2M -45.5%
  • Nationwide Gas $2.84/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,532.0 -9.2%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,445.1/40 ft Box -4.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,209.8 +1.3%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 65.0 +100.0%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 97.2 +62.7%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 277,654 +31.2%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,460,511 +24.8% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 45.0% unch.
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +2.6%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Computer Hardware +6.3%
  • Alt Energy +6.2%
  • Nuclear +5.5%
  • Defense +5.1%
  • Gold & Silver +5.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Medical -2.9%
  • Insurance -2.9%
  • Education -3.2%
  • Software -5.6%
  • Gambling -5.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (37)
  • ASTS, VELO, FIGR, AGX, RIOT, LUNR, IREN, SPIR, FLY, RDW, SMCI, DBVT, AMBA, BKD, GLXY, NVO, SVM, AEHR, RKLB, POWL, DSP, GEV, PSNL, AVAV, PL, PFSI, TWO, MU, CEPT, RBLX, UMAC, PNC, OCUL, PWR and RITM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)
  • RPD, MNDY, QXO, FIG, HUBS, APTV, STT, TRMB, NICE, APP, TEAM, WST, AMCR, XOMA, DKNG, BRZE, CEG and SGML
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gambling -4.2% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.7% 3) Steel -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SSYS, PRU, ZETA, HUBS, MNDY, QXO, STT, MOS, FIG, BIRK, APTV, GMAB, BIOA, XOMA, TRMB, AMCR, APP, BLLN, TEAM, DKNG, VST, BRZE, VNET, CEG, TLN and SGML
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WOLF 2) FE 3) IBRX 4) IMAX 5) VG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CEG 2) ABUS 3) TLN 4) MOS 5) RF
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLY 3) NUSC 4) SOXX 5) IYC

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services +2.4% 2) Nuclear +2.0% 3) Disk Drives +2.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NBY, VELO, AGX, ASTS, RIOT, SPIR, LUNR, FIGR, TNGX, FLY, IREN, TSSI, DBVT, BKKT, RDW, SMCI, SVM, AMPX, NVO, RKLB, CIFR, PCT, AMBA, SMR, ELVN, AVAV, UMAC, BKD, BE, GLXY, PSNL, MARA, FTRE, CRWV, LEU, AEHR, MU, POWL, ADUR, WT, GEV, KTOS, CLSK, AMRC, VOYG, PFSI, CDE, GKOS, SYF, TWO, PL, PWR, BFH, RBLX, AG, TIGO, CWH, CEPT, Q, CEPT, KNTK, OKLO, APLD, SNEX, EC, RITM and ETN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CX 2) EWJ 3) IBRX 4) IRE 5) CSGP 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) IBRX 2) RIOT 3) ASTS 4) GEV 5) PNC
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) AIRR 2) SMH 3) XME 4) XLV 5) XLC
Charts:

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic/Earnings Optimism, De-Escalating US/Iran Tensions, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Construction Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -61 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MMM)/1.80
  • (DHI)/1.93
  • (FAST)/.26
  • (FITB)/1.00
  • (FOR)/.32
  • (KEY)/.39
  • (USB)/1.19 
After the Close: 
  • (OZK)/1.55
  • (HWC)/1.49
  • (IBKR)/1.59
  • (NFLX)/.55
  • (PRGS)/1.31
  • (SFNC)/.48
  • (UAL)/2.93
  • (WTFC)/2.93
  • (ZION)/1.57 
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Supreme Court Tariff Ruling(10:00 am EST), ADP weekly employment change, API weekly crude oil stock report, (ASH) annual meeting, SPIE Photonics West Expo and the CIBC Western Investor Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST