Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful 
  • @LaraLogan
  • @GenFlynn
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @greg_price11
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @RepLuna
  • @Liz_churchill10
  • @Breaking911
  • @ArthurMacwaters
  • @MaryBowdenMD
  • DOJ has canceled 3 enforcement actions against Pfizer, and @AGPamBondi is trying to have @IamBrookJackson’s case against Pfizer dismissed. Bondi previously worked for Pfizer.
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @discloseTV
  • @Shilohmarx
  • @Cernovich
  • Democrats won Virginia and are going full Marxist. Taxes at California levels. Banning white men from government contracts. Surveillance tech cameras to issue tickets. Internet voting. Gun bans. There is no such thing as a moderate Democrat.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%. 
  • Gold 4,833.1 USD/t oz. +1.4%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 +.09%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.4 -.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.83% -5.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 -2.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.30%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Escalating Tariff Uncertainty, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.21 +3.2%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.22 +3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.4 +.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 129.7 +1.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.9 +1.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.3 +3.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.6 -2.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.5 -3.6 points 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(37 of 500 reporting) +16.7% -.9 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.38 +1.05:  Growth Rate +16.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 21.9 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.21% -5.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 491.56 +1.55: Growth Rate +19.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.0 -1.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .57 -18.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 69.5 basis points (2s/10s) +6.25 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.1 -.6% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.1% -1.8 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% +6.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.81 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 76.6% (-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 62.3%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -680 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -80 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -2.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services -3.6% 2) Road & Rail -3.0% 3) Gambling -2.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • WST, DPZ, EVMD, SRAD, CEG, IR, MESO, NPB, FAST, MS, LIF, TSM, UNP, OTEX, WIX, AZN, NTNX, TRMB, IBN, LOGI, TWO, PFSI, FIG, RDW, VITL, VELO, CRML, ADUR, MMM, IOT, GLOB, RUN, NTAP, MUR, AVAV and BKKT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WEN 2) AQST 3) GFS 4) IBRX 5) MMM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BTGR 2) NTAP 3) STUB 4) CRWV 5) MMM
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) AIRR 2) SMH 3) VAW 4) XLI 5) IXN

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +4.3% 2) Foods +1.1% 3) Coal +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CRVS, RAPT, ACHC, QGEN, HYMC, UMC, KEP, VOR, AMLX, ORLA, IAG, DFTX, CGAU, SKM, LPTH, ONDS, SGML, SVM, MRAM, LITE, UUUU, SNDK, EQX, USAR, HBM, AU, BVN, ELVA, GRAL, FULC, RCAT, KGC, VIA, OR, SA, TYRA, GFI, EXK, EGO, ARMN, SSRM, PZZA, MUX, BRZE, IDCC, SSRM, AAUC, AEM, PSLV, NEXA, AUGO, PAAS, IDR, ACLX, MAZE, METC, LQDA, GFS, WPM, CMPO, LQDA, ALB, AXSM, EXE, SKYT, AGI, CEF, VIV, STZ, XP, PHYS, SKYT, VICR, NTLA, FNV, SBS, DNTH, LASR, HL, BSX, ERO, NU, BIOA and EC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BSX 2) MGNI 3) CRVS 4) EH 5) CHGG 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RAPT 2) ARDX 3) RMTI 4) IBRX 5) SNDK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XBI 3) COPX 4) CIBR 5) XHB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ALLY)/1.02
  • (BKU)/.89
  • (SCHW)/1.39
  • (CFG)/1.10
  • (HAL)/.55
  • (JNJ)/2.47
  • (TEL)/2.54
  • (TDY)/5.84
  • (TRV)/8.76
  • (TFC)/1.09 
After the Close: 
  • (CACI)/6.48
  • (KMI)/.36
  • (KNX)/.35
  • (PNFP)/2.26 
Economic Release 

10:00 am EST

  • Census releases Sept.-Oct. Construction Spending report. 
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated unch. versus a +3.3% gain in Nov. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The President's WEF speech, 20Y T-Bond auction, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, weekly US retail sales reports, IEA monthly report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, SPIE Photonics West Expo, (AYI) annual meeting and the (SCHW) business update call could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +15.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.3 -3.4
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 25.8% of Issues Advancing, 72.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .50 -49.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$289.1M
  • 93 New 52-Week Highs, 51 New Lows
  • 68.3% (-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.9 -4.5
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 12.0% -17.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 54.0% +5.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.1 +.6%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 414.25 +9.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 262.6 -.7%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 157.1 +.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 53.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from GREED) -9.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.1 -1.8%
  • Vix 19.2 +1.7%
  • Total Put/Call .84 unch.