Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @ElonMusk
  • @GenFlynn
  • @17QStorm
  • @TheSCIF
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @LaraLogan 
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @WarClandestine
  • The FBI raid in Fulton County is the result of a court-authorized search warrant, meaning that there must already be some form of convincing evidence. And all of this ties in with the open border, the illegals, the ICE protests, etc. Everything revolves around election fraud. (video)
  • @HustleBitch_
  • MAN EXPOSES THE ONLY U.S. CITY ERASED FROM GOOGLE MAPS - AND IT’S ULTRA WEALTHY. There is exactly one city in America you could not explore on Street View: North Oaks - a private, gated enclave in Minnesota known for extreme affluence and exclusivity. This wasn’t a glitch. It wasn’t outdated data. It was intentional. Every entrance to the city is marked "No Trespassing". Cameras and license plate readers track who comes and goes. There are no public roads - property lines extend all the way into the street, eliminating public right-of-way entirely. (video)
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @mitchelivii
  • @BennyJohnson
  • @LibsOfTikTok
  • @TalkMullins 
  • @RealLindellTV
  • @iAnonPatriot
  • @AutismCapital
  • @mazemoore
  • @pjcolbeck
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.%. 
  • Gold 5,579.8 USD/t oz. +4.5%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.07 -.4%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.1 -.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.26% +2.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.64% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 -.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.03%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Diminishing Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Precious Metal Mania, Technical Selling, Pharma/Oil Service Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.9 -.2%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.18 -1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.5 +1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 125.6 +.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.4 -.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.5 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.1 -.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.9 +2.0 point 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(104 of 500 reporting) +20.4% -1.4 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.07 +.14:  Growth Rate +16.6% unch., P/E 22.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.10% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 492.73 +.29: Growth Rate +19.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.6 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 66.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.7 +.9% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.0% -.1 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.4% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.17 +8.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 88.1% (+5.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 73.0%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +550 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -2.5% 2) Pharma -1.9% 3) Biotech -1.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • EC, BUSE, SARO, GIB, XYL, XOMA, MANH, EMBJ, GLW, SMG, USAR, WVE, NG, DHR, AGYS, OII, MRAM, KYIV, RDW, SCZM, QRVO, IMCR, HUM, SYM, SWKS, PB, LOGI, TXT, LE, UMC, VFC, NET, APH, BMI, HAFC, NAVI, RGNX, PRAA and CVNA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KDP 2) APH 3) HUM 4) CVNA 5) STX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CVNA 2) RGNX 3) NAVI 4) VFC 5) BMI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) KBWB 2) XOP 3) IHI 4) XSW 5) KRE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +2.7% 2) Semis +2.3% 3) Nuclear +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • STX, AAOI, LRN, VELO, STUB, LUNR, AVT, STEL, UUUU, DXYZ, ATEX, NXT, FFIV, TXN, SNDK, ASTS, ALM, OKLO, MCHP, SUPX, BETR, SANM, GFI, RMBS, APLS, PFS, CRCL, WIX, ASM, FIGR, MU, ARI, NVTS, ARI, NXE, ELV, WERN, EDU, NN, ARW, MSCI, AI, T, HMY, ALHC, TMDX, ASTH, CMBT, IREN, UNH, TRMD, PLXS, TSEM, GOLD, RCAT, RBRK, VSH, CCJ, SBSW, LEU, PPG, RNST, XP, EXTR, AUGO, WYFI, GILT, MHO, RCL, VIAV and MRTN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WU 2) VSAT 3) AS 4) TRX 5) STX 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) STX 2) AVT 3) MU 4) FFIV  5) NXT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) XLF 3) MAGS 4) SOXX 5) IGV
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MO)/1.32
  • (BX)/1.54
  • (BC)/.57
  • (CRS)/2.22
  • (CAT)/4.71
  • (CMCSA)/.73
  • (DOW)/-.46
  • (EXP)/3.44
  • (GPI)/9.16
  • (HON)/2.54
  • (IP)/.27
  • (LHX)/2.76
  • (LMT)/5.81
  • (MA)/4.24
  • (NSC)/2.76
  • (PH)/7.16
  • (PHM)/2.81
  • (RCL)/2.80
  • (SAP)/1.77
  • (SHW)/2.16
  • (LUV)/.57
  • (STM)/.28
  • (TMO)/6.45
  • (TSCO)/.46
  • (TT)/2.81
  • (VLO)/3.27 
  • (V)/3.14 
After the Close: 
  • (AAPL)/2.67
  • (BZH)/-.47
  • (DECK)/2.77
  • (KLAC)/8.79
  • (PFSI)/3.07
  • (SNDK)/3.58
  • (SKYW)/2.16
  • (SYK)/4.39
  • (WDC)/1.93 
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 205K versus 200K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1850K versus 1849K prior.
  • Final 3Q Non-Farm Productivity/Unit Labor Cost readings. 
  • The Trade Deficit for Nov.
  • Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Nov.
  • Final Wholesale Trade Inventories/Sales for Nov.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 7Y T-Note auction, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q update, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (SBUX) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 -.9
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 41.5% of Issues Advancing, 56.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .87 -25.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$36.9M
  • 196 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
  • 67.7% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.5 -3.1
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% unch.
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 77.0% -2.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% unch.
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 64.0% -1.0 percentage point
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 99.8 -1.4%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 451.5 +8.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 265.9 +.2%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 155.0 -1.0%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 13.8 +30.0%
  • Vix 16.9 +3.3%
  • Total Put/Call .78 +9.9%