Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• US forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on Monday at 10 a.m. New York time, the US Central Command said. 
• Who is Peter Magyar? Here's a look at the former Orban party insider who toppled the Hungarian leader. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @Zerohedge

• Why Is China's Embassy In D.C. Hardening Security Perimeter With Barbed Wire?
• Massachusetts Dems Advance Bill To Limit How Far You Can Drive In Your Own Car.
• *IRAN SAYS IT WON’T ALLOW US BLOCKADE OF HORMUZ STRAIT.
• Orbán Concedes: 16-Year Fidesz Rule Collapses In Historic Hungarian Landslide.
• Decades-Long Study Blows Up Narrative That 'Gender Reassignment' Prevents Suicide.
• Goldman Picks Through The Ashes After The De-Rating Of Secular Growth Stocks.
• NEW: An urgent phone call from Saudi Crown Prince MBS changed Trump’s decision at the last minute: President Trump had intended to declare a complete ceasefire and end the fighting against Iran in exchange for the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, a tense phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman dramatically changed the plan. According to White House sources, bin Salman begged Trump not to stop the war:
• Following claims earlier today by U.S. President Donald J. Trump that the United Kingdom and other countries will send minesweepers to the Middle East to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the British Government has announced that it is trying to bring together a “wide coalition” with France and others to ensure freedom of navigation through the waterway near Iran...
• President Trump Faces Renewed Backlash As Trump-Linked Tokens Crash.
• A U.S. official details the U.S. "red lines" in the talks with Iran: Ending all uranium enrichment. Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities (which are mostly destroyed). Retrieve highly enriched uranium. Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies. End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage. One gap in the talks was the amount of Iranian frozen funds that will be released, per source with knowledge.
• Breaking: The Iranian delegation held a detailed round of talks with Pakistan’s top leadership, led by Asim Munir, on Sunday ahead of their departure from Islamabad, as diplomatic efforts gathered pace. Diplomatic sources indicate momentum is building for the next phase, with US-Iran talks likely to resume in the coming days under Pakistan’s facilitation — either in Islamabad or at an alternate venue in Europe— following the latest round of negotiations that ended without a deal but left the door open for continued engagement.
• FAA Greenlights Laser Sentry Guns To Combat Attack Drones In U.S. Airspace.
• Top, Bottom 20 Hedge funds YTD (HSBC weekly). (table)    
• *TRUMP: OIL PRICE DECLINE WILL HAPPEN EVENTUALLY. *TRUMP: OIL PRICE DECLINE MIGHT NOT HAPPEN INITIALLY. *TRUMP: FRANKLY, GAS PRICE HASN'T GONE UP AS MUCH AS I THOUGHT. *TRUMP: STOCK MARKET HASN'T GONE DOWN VERY MUCH AT ALL AFTER WAR.  
• Sick Behavior From Financial Psychopaths.
• *TRUMP ON FURTHER DESTRUCTING IRAN: I WILL IF THEY DON'T GIVE UP. *TRUMP ON POTENTIAL FUTURE IRAN TALKS: I WANT EVERYTHING. *TRUMP ON IRAN: THEY HAVEN'T LEFT BARGAINING TABLE.  
• *IRAN WARNS RETALIATION FOR ANY 'WRONG MOVE' IN HORMUZ: TASNIM.
• *TRUMP: YDAY MEETING W/ IRAN WAS GOOD EXCEPT FOR NUCLEAR ISSUE. *TRUMP: BLOCKADE TO BE AT 'HIGHER' LEVEL THAN ON VENEZUELA.
• Trump Begins Blockade Of Hormuz Strait, Says Iran "Will Not Be Allowed To Profit From Extortion".
• BREAKING: Israel's army chief has ordered forces to prepare for a possible resumption of war on Iran says Israeli media, citing military sources.
• London Mayor Sadiq Khan Calls For A Government Social Media 'Disinformation' Unit.
• 'No Deal': Vance Leaves Islamabad As Iran Talks Stall Over Nukes; US Starts Mine-Clearing Hormuz.

• @CNBC 

• Asia markets set for mixed open as oil surges after U.S. moves to blockade Iran ports.
• Dow futures drop 450 points after Trump announces Strait of Hormuz blockade as talks fail: Live updates. 
• Dow futures drop 450 points after Trump announces Strait of Hormuz blockade as talks fail: Live updates.
• Earnings playbook: JPMorgan Chase and Netflix kick off the reporting season.

• @Barron's 

• Had bullish commentary on (UPS) and (CP).

• @MarioNawful

• Remember credit default swaps? The thing that blew up the world in 2008? They were so dangerous regulators spent years trying to rein them in. Wall Street just brought them back for a new sector. S&P Dow Jones is launching a credit default swap index tied to 25 North American financial firms, including giants like Blackstone, Ares Capital and Apollo. Major banks start selling it next week. Here's why it matters: private credit has been on shaky ground... 
• BREAKING: Iran releases a blistering statement after 21 hours of talks collapse in Islamabad: "The American enemy, which is vile, wicked and dishonest, attempted to achieve on the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war. Iran has decided to reject these terms and continue the sacred defense of its fatherland by any means necessary, military or diplomatic." That's the IRGC calling the United States "vile, wicked and dishonest" minutes after Vance boarded Air Force Two. They say the U.S. demanded Iran hand over enriched uranium and give up sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said no to both. This statement wasn't written after the talks failed. This was written before they started.
• Lebanon was the deal-breaker nobody is talking about enough... The nuclear issue and Hormuz get the headlines. But according to sources inside the talks, a critical breakdown came over Lebanon. The U.S. offered to convince Israel to stop strikes in Beirut first, then "gradually expand" the pause to southern Lebanon and the rest of the country. Iran wanted an immediate, full ceasefire across all of Lebanon. They couldn't bridge that gap. This is the pattern playing out exactly as predicted throughout this war. 
• Netanyahu from South Lebanon: "The war in Lebanon will continue." Ok.... and what about the Iran ceasefire? Who's calling the shots?? 
• Russia is now protecting its oil with warships... this isn't going to end well. Fed up with other countries taking its shadow tankers, Putin's Northern Fleet destroyer Severomorsk is now patrolling off the coasts of Denmark and Germany. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• Electronic thermostat in the Savannah, GA election was picking up WIFI signal from the electronic vote tabulation machines and sending the results to CHINA. The 2020 election was STOLEN. (video)
• Tina Peters is in prison for preserving records, that the state wiped, proving the 2020 election was stolen. - State deletion of election records in Mesa County, CO - 36 wireless internet devices connected to election - Evidence of manipulated votes from preserved records Free Tina Peters! (video) 

• @WallStreetApes

• North Carolina Hospitals have deployed these telepresence robots These allow doctors to interact remotely with patients. A real human doctor is operating this remotely and speaking with patients Yes, this is real. This is so dystopian North Carolina hospitals deployed these to combat doctor burnout and staffing shortages at some locations. (video)

• @visegrad24

• A boat with around a dozen armed men onboard just attacked a cargo vessel near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. The attack failed as they couldn’t board the ship. Looks like the Houthis are starting attacks to close the Strait and the route through the Suez Canal. (map)

• @Watcherguru

• JUST IN: President Trump threatens 50% tariff on China if it sends weapons to Iran.
• JUST IN: Saudi Arabia fully restores East-West oil pipeline, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and pumping 7,000,000 barrels per day. 

• @PeterSweden7

• This should be headline news EVERYWHERE. A Pfizer insider who was former head of toxicology in Europe has just come out and said something that many "conspiracy theorists" suspected. He estimates that 20 000 to 60 000 people in Germany have died from the c*vid vaccine. This was said at a parliamentary enquiry commission in Germany. So why isn't this massive news being reported everywhere? Is the mainstream media that has recieved millions in funding from Bill Gates deliberately covering this up...

• @WallStreetMav

• Sulfuric acid is needed in leaching of copper, uranium, nickel, zinc, and cobalt from oxide and sulfide ores. 72% of silver is produced as a by-product of other metals. China is the largest exporter of sulfuric acid in the world. China just halted exports of sulfuric acid.

• @AaronRDay

• TEXAS LEADS THE NATION IN TECHNOCRACY. The "freedom state" just scored number one on our new ranking system. This isn't about innovation or jobs. 1/ We measured 7 dimensions of government-corporate control. Surveillance infrastructure, digital ID systems, data partnerships, civil liberties erosion. Texas dominated nearly every category.... (list)

• @HormuzLetter  

• WATCH: Iran has released footage of yesterday’s IRGC Navy confrontation with US destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz, ordering the US ships to “alter course and go back to the Indian Ocean immediately” or be “targeted,” and issuing a “last warning” before threatening to open fire. The IRGC also broadcast a warning to all vessels in the Oman Sea to stay more than 10 miles away from any warship. The release preceded President Trump’s announcement of a US Navy blockade of the strait by roughly two hours. (video)

• @legitgov

• Missing nuclear official becomes TENTH person tied to dark pattern surrounding U.S. secrets --Another person with links to America’s nuclear secrets has gone missing as the disturbing list of deaths and disappearances in recent years continues to grow. Steven Garcia, 48, vanished without a trace on August 28, 2025. He was last seen leaving his Albuquerque, New Mexico home on foot, carrying only a handgun. (pic)

• @FinanceLancelot

• BREAKING: Iran says that if Trump carries out his Strait of Hormuz blockade on April 13th, Iran will respond by taking control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the Red Sea with the Houthis. This would cut off another 12% of global energy supply, bringing the total shortfall to 32%.

• @TheIranWatcher

• “Tehran has turned into a barracks for foreign militias under IRGC command.” Here is a first-hand account of what’s happening right now inside Tehran. What follows describes a city that is no longer functioning normally, but operating under heavy militarization and systemic breakdown... (list)

• @ClashReport

• Netanyahu asked Jerusalem Court to postpone his corruption trial testimony for at least two weeks, citing classified security and diplomatic reasons linked to current “dramatic events.” Netanyahu has been on trial since 2020 on fraud, breach of trust, and bribery charges.

• @BabakTaghvaee1

• BREAKING: On the order of U.S. President Trump, all ships that have paid tolls to, or have been permitted by, the Islamic regime of Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz will be sunk by the U.S. Navy once they attempt to enter or exit the Persian Gulf. For this purpose, two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers of the U.S. Navy—USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG-121)—are now positioned near the Strait of Hormuz and are tasked with confronting any commercial vessel attempting to enter or leave. The Iranian Navy warned these ships when they tried to pass through the Hormuz Strait. (video)

• @BRICSinfo

• JUST IN: Turkey says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's "current objective is to undermine ongoing peace negotiations." "Failing this, he risks being tried in his own country and is likely to be sentenced to imprisonment."
• JUST IN: Turkish President Erdogan threatens military action against Israel, The Telegraph reports. "Just as we entered Libya and Karabakh, we can enter Israel." 

• @JRobFromMN

• The Eric Swalwell situation is a Prime example of how effective and ruthless the Democrat Party is. Eric was infiltrated by a Chinese Spy in his rise to power. No Problem. Eric has been an awful person both policy wise AND on a personal level,(as the latest allegations seem to validate), for 13 years in Congress. No Problem. Eric Decides to Run for Governor in CA and now with all of the Democrats in the Primary, his presence will likely cost Democrats the Governors Office with their goofy Primary System. Once he is no longer an asset for them, open up the closet and watch the skeletons they ignored for decades fall out. The Speed and effectiveness is astounding...the politicians and the media ruin the dude in a day. None of this is new, none of this is "shocking", they decided he is no longer useful and they curb stomped him. There is a lesson there for everyone on the left, but I don't think they will see it.

• @TheChiefNerd

• JASON: “All the Jewish-Americans I talk to say Netanyahu is causing — with his actions in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran — he's gone too far, and it's causing the anti-Semitism we're experiencing.” (video)

• @LeadingReport

• Idaho Gov. Brad Little has signed a bill into law prohibiting any government entity from requiring individuals to “obtain, maintain, present, or use digital identification.”

• @allenanalysis

• MAJOR BREAKING: The woman accusing Eric Swalwell of rape just sat down with CNN. In her own words: “I went to the bathroom. I don’t remember anything after that.” “I can see flashes of that evening. Him on top of me. Me pushing him off. Him grabbing me. It was a lot more aggressive.” She says he refused to stop. This is the leading Democratic candidate for California governor. CNN Investigates corroborated her account with medical records, text messages sent the same week, and interviews with her partner, mother, and two friends. Swalwell’s response was to send her a cease-and-desist letter the day after CNN contacted his campaign. One of his own staffers quit immediately after CNN sent questions to his office. (video)

• @HealthRanger

• The helium collapse accelerates. All mass spec labs are about to go dark. Medical imaging, too, for those instruments that use helium. My lab has a 1-year supply of helium in place, because I saw this coming and ordered my analysts to stock up in early March. Apparently we got the last available "extra" helium in the supply chain. Now it's scarcity and, soon, panic.

• @NicHulscher

• Nokia's CEO says that by 2030 "smartphones will be IMPLANTED DIRECTLY INTO OUR BODIES" as 6G becomes fully operational. President Trump just signed a Memorandum to accelerate 6G deployment, with a stated goal to "operate implantable technologies." This should concern everyone. (video)

• @BrianEastwoodx

• Trump endorses Republicans sponsoring mass amnesty. (list)

• @redpillb0t

• Stanley Kubrick didn't die of a heart attack. They k*lled him days after finishing "Eyes Wide Shut", a movie that shows the exact pedophile parties Epstein ran. Masked rich people, secret passwords, dark rituals, it's all there. Kubrick knew too much. The big orgy scene isn't made up, it's based on real elite parties at mansions like the Rotschilds estate used in the film. Blindfolds, robes, young girls traded like toys, just like Epstein's island. Kubrick 24 extra minutes naming names and showing faces. Studio bosses screamed at him: "You can't release this!" Four days later, he's dead.

• @WideAwake_Media

• Tucker Carlson believes America is "moving toward one of two endpoints". "One is a totalitarian society, where... you have to obey, because you've got programmable digital currency and universal surveillance." "Or, we're going to have a revolution." "The current course won't work because it's a lie. If you tell people they own the government, they're in charge, they rule through the representatives in this democratic republic... and you don't deliver on it, they go crazy. They go totally crazy." "If you tell people they can't say what they think, and their vote doesn't matter, how many options have you left for them?" (video)

• @KellyLMcCarty

• Remember when Lindsey Graham said J6ers should be sh0t in the h3ad? Listen for yourself: (video)

• @Bitcoin_Teddy

• Prepare for the most jaw-dropping 4 minutes and 21 seconds you will watch this year. Nicole Shanahan — ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, former running mate of RFK Jr., and a woman who personally signed nine-figure philanthropy checks — went full whistleblower on the entire Silicon Valley “tech wife mafia” and how they were used. Her exact words: (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 45.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%.
• Crude Oil 104.40/bbl. +8.1%
• Gold 4,744.7 USD/t oz. -.91% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.63 +.26%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.69 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 111.6 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +3.0 basis point. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.69% +5.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.2 +2.7%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.4%.
• S&P 500 futures -.74%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.81%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by transportation and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the week.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,815.8 +3.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 47,925.5 +3.0%

• NASDAQ 22,902.6 +4.5%

• Russell 2000 2,630.9 +3.9%

• NYSE FANG+ 14,947.5 +5.8%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 263.0 +3.3%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 30.0 +3.3%

• Wilshire 5000 67,467.1 +3.4%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,487.7 +3.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,183.9 +3.0%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 930.9 +.4%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 252.2 +2.2%
  

• NYSE Technology 7,281.3 +6.3%

• Transports 20,260.9 +5.9%

• Utilities 1,187.2 +1.2%

• MSCI Europe Banks 115.5 +3.7%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 60.6 +6.7%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 250.0 +.14%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 130.6 -.6%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 605,506 +1.0%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.3 +8.4%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 411 +813

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -22.0 +8.8%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 213,488 -8.6%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,030,970 +1.4%

• Total Put/Call .79 -25.0%

• OEX Put/Call .60 -3.9%

• ISE Sentiment 123.0 +35.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.03 -5.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 110.2 +10.1%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 +36.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.24 -6.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 19.9 -16.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .54 -72.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 17.2 -29.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.3 -7.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.8 -6.9%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,410.3 +1.0%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  69.4 +.9

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.819 Trillion +.1%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.438 Million

• AAII % Bulls 35.7 +6.3%

• AAII % Bears 43.0 -16.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (Moved to FEAR from EXTREME FEAR) +23.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 368.5 -.7%

• Crude Oil 96.0/bbl. -12.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 301.5 -7.0%

• Natural Gas 2.65 -14.8%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 74.5 USD/Megawatt +.1% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.6 euros/megawatt-hour -8.2%
  

• Heating Oil 374.8 -16.2% 
• Newcastle Coal 129.7 (1,000/metric ton) -8.2%

• Gold 4,765.1 +1.6%
• Silver 76.3 +4.1%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 173.7 +2.5%

• Copper 587.9 +7.3%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 411.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne -2.8%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 23,475.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 64.7 -2.2%  

• CME Lumber 579.5 -2.8%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,337.2 -2.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 312.5 USD/Short Ton +2.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 704.5 USD/Short Ton +2.2% 

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% -.6 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.2 +1.4 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.7 -5.56%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 275.3 -3.6% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 94.0% -1.0 percentage point

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 339.5 -21.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.4
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +81.3% -4.3 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 337.45 +1.40:  Growth Rate +21.5% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.05% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 800.40 +5.85: Growth Rate +101.2% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 18.6 +.9

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.9 -13.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.4 -15.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.1 -4.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 98.4%(-.6 percentage point) chance of no change, 1.6%(+.6 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 98.70 -1.3%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,865.1 +1.2%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 72,915.0 +7.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 212.94 +1.7%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.65 -.39%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 51.25 -1.0 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.32% -11.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.64% -8.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.647 Trillion +.3%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.620 Billion +3.0%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.1 -7.0%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 196.0 -5.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 79.0 -17.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.9 -7.3%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.1 -11.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 127.1 -9.2%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.8 -6.3%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 81.0 -12.5%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.4 -11.4%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.13 +1.0%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 113.60 +1.0%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.8% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% -40.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% +20.0 basis points
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.10% +27.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.58% +33.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.44 -156.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +6.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 13.25 +7.5 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.5 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +2.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.0 -8.1% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.6 +1.1%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 109.0 -33.2%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 534.7 +.3% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 240.0 -51.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.7 -10.8%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 165.3 -11.4%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 112.0 -13.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 587.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .57 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.9% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,361.9B +2.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 209,500 +.7%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.6 unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.52% +3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 276,000 -.8%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.8% +20.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +19.0% -6.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $194.7M +.8%

• Nationwide Gas $4.15/gallon +.07/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,161.0 +6.5%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,308.8/40 ft Box +.9%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,209.8 +2.1%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 245.0 +22.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 136.3 -1.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 272,085 -3.6%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,691,308 +18.4% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.8 -.9 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 45.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +4.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.8%

Leading Sectors

• Semis +14.0%

• AI/Innovation +11.1%
• Steel +6.3%

• Construction +6.1%
  

• Banks +5.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Education -3.1%

• Energy -5.1%
  

• Cyber Security -5.6%

• Computer Services -7.0%
  

• Software -7.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (33)

• ALOY, ALAB, SPIR, AAOI, CRWV, TTMI, CRDO, CVLT, VERA, MRLN, SMCI, COHR, NBIS, MRVL, CLS, TLX, LPTH, FN, WYFI, LI, KYIV, COHU, AMSC, IREN, AVGO, LGN, INFQ, STAA, PSIX, FLOC, AMD, HUT, APLD and CORZ

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (40)

• AON, MITK, TGLS, AXS, GWRE, CRWD, S, TWLO, DDOG, SEPN, PCOR, INTU, CDNS, LBRX, FIG, AVTX, ESTC, MNDY, QURE, ADPT, BRBR, RDWR, ZM, HUBS, NTRA, PANW, GH, BRZE, CLBT, KVYO, NOW, SIBN, SNOW, SMPL, DOCN, NET, SEZL, FICO, AKAM and FSLY

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Mideast Ceasefire Fragility, Higher Long-Term Rates, Global Supply Chain Disruption Fears, Financial/Biotech Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +296 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -62 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +116 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FAST)/.30
• (GS)/16.41 

After the Close: 

• (FBK)/1.10

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sale for March is estimated to fall to 4.06M versus 4.09M in Feb.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Miran speaking, IMF Meetings, Needham Heatlhcare Conference and the HSBC Investment Summit could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• *BESSENT SUMMONED WALL STREET CEOS TO DISCUSS ANTHROPIC’S MYTHOS. 
• A massive fire has been reported at the Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco, Mexico, with workers saying a tower at the coking plant is involved and heavy smoke rising. (video)
• BREAKING: Iranian state media denies an Iranian delegation has arrived in Islamabad for Saturday's talks, rejecting a Wall Street Journal report of their arrival and restating Iran has "no plans to attend peace talks with the American side until a ceasefire is established in Lebanon," per Fars News Agency.
• 'World's First' Humanoid Robot For Real Household Chores Launched With 16-Hour Battery.
• Pentagon Seeks Stunning 243x Budget Surge For Drone Warfare Unit As Eurasian Wars Reshape Combat.
• For the Trump administration to understand: The Strait of Hormuz is NOT OPEN. The UAE does not and will NEVER accept the Islamic regime in Iran imposing CONDITIONS on access. The UAE is not Britain or the EU. It does not accept any terrorist actor restricting freedom of navigation. As for Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia negotiating to keep the regime afloat, understand this: no state has a legitimate right to decide who may pass and under what terms. That is international law, not a bargaining chip. Shame on United Kingdom, NATO, European Union, and anyone who tolerates this regime’s terrorism and piracy.   
• Trump vs. the AyaTOLLah. 
• The sad thing is that Ro is the guy preaching for socialism while he is the most active insider trader in Congress. He is a terrible representative of Silicon Valley. 
• *SENATE BANKING PANEL PLANS TO DELAY WARSH HEARING: PUNCHBOWL.
• Massachusetts Governor Uses Donut Holes To Explain The State Energy Crisis She Caused.
• The Economic Destruction Of Trump's War Goes Far Beyond High Gas Prices.
• Hormuz Hope Sparks Stocks Longest Win Streak In 6 Months; Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open mixed as renewed tensions test a fragile Iran-U.S. ceasefire.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as traders monitor fragile ceasefire between U.S. and Iran: Live updates. 

• @EmeraldRobinson

• My sources tell me: RFK Jr.'s team at HHS has been removed/sidelined by White House. HHS is now run by Big Pharma lobbyists. And now: RFK Jr. suddenly has time to "launch a podcast" with all his free time. It's all over for MAHA. (video)
• When leftwing crap-rag @politico is publishing puff pieces on Harmeet, that's when you know: she's no threat to the uniparty at all. 
• Just called a White House source. How much was stolen? "Trillions." Where did the money go? "China." (video)

• @MarioNawful

• The number that should terrify you is 7.8 billion barrels. Global oil inventories started this crisis around 8.2 billion barrels. Six weeks of Hormuz disruption have drawn them down to roughly 8.0 billion. The draws are accelerating, running at 10+ million barrels per day in some weeks despite strategic reserve releases. Energy analysts are now circulating a threshold: 7.8 billion barrels. Below that, the system tips from "high prices" to "actual shortages." Refineries can't run on empty. Floating storage takes time to access. Regional imbalances mean Asia runs dry before anyone else. One estimate called 18 days "generous" before we cross that line.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Finance Minister of Israel Bezalel Smotrich announces that Israel will begin expanding its borders into Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, in alignment with the Greater Israel Project. He says this is the only viable solution to ensure Israel is well protected. He adds that many more settlements will be established in the near future. "There will be a lot of work for all of us after the war."

• @BullTheoryio

• BREAKING: Someone placed a $950 million bet on oil prices falling just hours before Trump announced the Iran ceasefire, Reuters reports. 8,600 lots of Brent and US crude futures were sold in a single block at 1945 GMT. Trump announced the ceasefire at 2230 GMT andOil dropped 15% immediately after. Large trades like this are almost never done in single blocks. Traders specifically avoid this to prevent moving the market. Someone did it anyway, right before one of the most market moving announcements of the year. This is the third major suspicious trade tied to a Trump's recent announcements.

• @DailyCaller

• OPINION: Xi Jinping wants Korea. He doesn’t have to work too hard to get it, though, because Korea’s current leader, Lee Jae-myung, has left the door open to Chinese infiltration. The Democratic Party of Korea, known as Minjoo, and their allies are now grabbing more power after Lee won the presidency last June. Minjoo also holds a large majority in the National Assembly, the country’s single-chamber legislature. As a result, Lee, Minjoo and their allies are now in a position to get whatever they want.

• @BreitbartNews

• Rep. Maria Salazar (R-FL) is madder than a wet hen because Americans realize her "Dignity Act" (its actual title is DIGNITAD, in Spanish) would amnesty millions of illegal immigrants and import many more legalized migrants. She just got busted by Community Notes...

• @danksterintel

• BREAKING: Trump just mass-attacked Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly, and Alex Jones in a single post. Called them "Low IQ," "LOSERS," and "not MAGA." Their crime? Opposing his Iran policy. Now ask yourself one question. Who benefits from silencing every major voice that questions unlimited support for a foreign government's military objectives? We've been showing you the receipts for months...

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: A Ninth scientist linked to secret US space and nuclear programs dies with no cause of death listed. (video)

• @theHFDF

• BREAKING: 70% of Americans OPPOSE Trump’s pesticide liability shield. This would be a severe betrayal of MAHA. Republicans are on the verge of handing Bayer-Monsanto total immunity to mass poison Americans with glyphosate in the 2026 Farm Bill. And Trump supports it. Not only that, but Trump’s DOJ is also pushing for the Supreme Court to hand pesticide companies a liability shield in a case later this month, regardless of whether Congress passes it in the Farm Bill. Americans overwhelmingly oppose this. MAHA voted to remove the liability shield for vaccines, not to expand it to yet another poison industry. (video)

• @ElectionWiz

• One crazy thing about Rep. Maria Salazar is that she isn’t in some swing district where she was forced to support amnesty to survive. FL-27 is a Republican seat. This was a completely unforced, unnecessary betrayal of America First voters.

• @Cernovich

• As sick as it was, the amnesty bill by Mike Lawler, Salazar, and other neocons was timed with Trump’s planned strike on Iran. Their plan was to vote on it while the country was distracted with a massive and escalating war. This is treachery beyond comprehension.

• @BreannaMorello

• Mike Lawler was endorsed by President Donald Trump. Lawler is for amnesty.

• @BBMagaMom

• BILL GATES-LINKED mRNA ATTACK ON YOUR FOOD? A new company backed by $50M is rolling out “biologically modified” crops sprayed with viral RNA, turning soybeans, tomatoes, corn and more into silent genetic reprogramming machines. No GMO labels. No CHOICE! (video)

• @JoshHall2024

• BREAKING: Former Vice President Mike Pence is reportedly orchestrating a "RINO coup" of Never Trump establishment Republicans who are on a mission to do a hostile take back of the Republican Party from President Trump and the MAGA movement. They are said to be funding opposition research on Trump-backed MAGA candidates in the midterms, financially backing their primary opponents and even strategically placing Trump haters in disguise as supporters of the President in key positions within the Trump administration in order to sabotage and undermine the President. Pam Bondi and Susie Wiles are two confirmed RINO infiltrators who were placed in their positions by Pence and his ilk. The RINO coup allegedly includes DOZENS of "Old Guard" Republicans including the Bush family, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Mitt Romney and the family of late Senator John McCain among others.

• @HQNewsNow

• Trump's followers on Truth Social are extremely upset about his attacks on Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly, Alex Jones, and Tucker Carlson. (pic)

• @RyanAFournier

• Sam Altman has admitted he is on a waitlist for a procedure that would digitize his brain. The procedure would kill him. He considers this an acceptable trade for digital immortality. This is the person making decisions about the future of artificial intelligence for hundreds of millions of users. A man who views ending his own biological life as a reasonable step toward uploading his consciousness to the cloud. These are not the priorities of a stable leader.

• @Holden_Culotta

• Catherine Austin-Fitts just sounded the alarm. A pesticide liability shield will cause an “extinction-level event.” Why? It will absolutely destroy fertility. And she says this is no accident. It’s intentional. “Depopulation” is exactly what the elites want. “They’ve enjoyed so much success depopulating by giving vaccines corporate liability shields that you have Bayer, who bought Monsanto, coming around and trying to get both the feds and the states to give pesticide liability shields.” “If you look at the extraordinary amount of money and support that’s coming [from] the mega rich to support this, it’s no accident.” “There’s no way, given the science on this, that they don’t know.” “There’s no way it’s anything other than intentional.” (video)

• @Liz_Churchill10

• No. Damn. Way. THE FBI CAUGHT STAGING J6 A Secret 2020 War Game shows 274 UNDERCOVER AGENTS rehearsed mass prosecutions of patriots MONTHS before it happened. This was a Deep State Setup to frame Americans to bury the stolen election. THIS IS TREASON. (video)

• @The_Real_Fly

• Trump blackmail leaked as soon as he stops attacking Iran. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 45.0 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%. 
• Crude Oil 98.70/bbl. +.8% 
• Gold 4,788.0 USD/t oz. -.66%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.64 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.7 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 108.9 +.5%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.63% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.50%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.02%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.