Bloomberg:
- Greek Markets Show All at Risk Should Mistake Trigger a Default. In Athens, the unspeakable is at risk of becoming the inevitable. Market metrics show Greece is in danger of sinking under the burden of its debt, putting repayments of about 500 billion euros ($546 billion) owed to European taxpayers, rescue funds, banks and bondholders in jeopardy. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is locked in talks with creditors over measures attached to Greece’s bailout loans and a government official said on Friday the country won’t service its debt if creditors don’t release the funds. The government has also floated a restructuring that would link some future payments to economic growth, reduce interest rates and allow more time for repayments. While their intention is to exclude private bondholders, the danger is that talks collapse and Greece leaves the euro, leaving all parties facing losses.
- ECB Nerves Fray on Greece as Supervisors Rile Central Bankers. Inside the five-month-old union between monetary policy and financial oversight at the European Central Bank, nerves are beginning to fray. As officials seek to replace deposits fleeing Greek banks without blatantly financing the state, the efforts of the institution’s new Single Supervisory Mechanism to do its part are irking the old guard. Central bankers under ECB President Mario Draghi worry that overly-strict orders to lenders could worsen the Greek turmoil. After building an institutional pillar that has supervised the euro area’s largest banks since November, the ECB is now facing one of the worst flare-ups in six years of sovereign-debt crisis. Officials must work out how to align their two policy arms in a way that can find a path through the Greek turmoil and set a template for handling banking turbulence to come.
- Japan’s Industrial Output Drops, Adding to Signs of Weakness. Japan’s industrial production fell more than forecast in February, adding to pressure from a drop in consumer spending and faltering inflation. Output declined 3.4 percent from January, when it rose 3.7 percent, the trade ministry said in Tokyo on Monday. The median estimate of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a decline of 1.9 percent. The data is the weakest since June last year and underscores the fragility of Japan’s recovery from a recession last year.
- Asia Stocks Trim Best Quarter Since 2013 as Energy Shares Drop. Asian stocks fell for a third day, trimming the biggest quarterly advance for the regional benchmark index since 2013, as energy and material shares led declines. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent to 146.2 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo.
- Too much of everything spurs commodity exodus as price wars rage. Investors are bailing out of commodity funds at the fastest pace on record, and the exodus shows no signs of ending. Investors are bailing out of commodity funds at the fastest pace on record, and the exodus shows no signs of ending. U.S. exchange-traded funds linked to broad baskets of raw materials saw a net outflow of $1.23 billion over the first three months of the year, the most of any quarter since the securities were created in 2006, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bank of America Corp. says ample supplies have unleashed price wars, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts a 20 percent drop for commodities already near a 13-year low. Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale SA also have cut forecasts for a whole range of items.
- Oil Drops for Second Day as Iran Nuclear Talks Remain Deadlocked. Oil fell for a second day as Iranian and Western diplomats worked toward a nuclear deal that may lead to the Islamic Republic boosting crude exports, exacerbating a global supply glut. Futures dropped as much as 1.9 percent in New York.
- Marco Rubio Makes Plans for 2016 Run. Florida Republican senator is tentatively set to announce his White House bid in Miami. Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) is laying plans to announce his presidential bid in two weeks, a step that, along with other recent activity among likely contenders, shows the early sparring and positioning in the 2016 race for the White House is about to accelerate.
- Obama Ramps Up Lobbying on Iran as Deadline Looms. White House has shown willingness to accept legislation that would give Congress some oversight over a nuclear deal.
- Uncertain of Obama, Arab States Gear Up for War. A pan-Arab coalition with a patchy record steps up as Yemen falls apart and U.S. policy remains unclear. Few organizations boast a reputation of dysfunction comparable to the Arab League’s. Over seven decades the Arab League has distinguished itself through infighting and fecklessness. But now, with the Obama administration seen as missing in action in the Middle East, the alliance of 22 countries is undergoing a renaissance.
- Boehner expresses doubts about reaching nuke deal with Iran, vows sanctions if effort fails. (video) House Speaker John Boehner said on Sunday he has “serious doubts” on whether the Obama administration and five other world powers can reach an agreement with Iran to curtail that country’s nuclear program and that Congress will move to impose new sanctions on Tehran if no deal is reached.
- Profit warnings are piling up. Of S&P 500 companies providing first-quarter outlooks, 84% have been negative.
Business Insider:
Telegraph:- Iran is building a non-nuclear threat faster than experts 'would have ever imagined'. In just over two years, the Iranian government has managed to build up a sophisticated cyberarmy that experts now say is capable of crippling key global infrastructure.
- Eurozone can't survive in current form, says PIMCO. Single currency area must become a "United States of Europe" in order to secure its future, says manager of world's largest bond fund.
- Asian indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 1113.0 unch.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.0 +.75 basis point.
- S&P 500 futures +.34%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AIR)/.37
- (CALM)/1.13
- (UTIW)/-.07
- (PWRD)/.37
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for February is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in January.
- Personal Spending for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.2% decline in January.
- PCE Core for February is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +1.3% gain in January.
- Pending Home Sales for February are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.7% gain in January.
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for March is estimated to rise to -9.0 versus -11.2 in February.
- None of note
- The Fed's Fischer speaking and the Eurozone industrial production/CPI reports could also impact trading today.
