Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -3.5% 2) Semis -1.7% 3) Alt Energy -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ILMN, MT, RGEN, WAT, PEAK, IFF, ALGN, TNP, SLAB, BRKR, LSCC, ALB, STM, PRVA, TECH, ENPH, O, FSLR, NXPI, DAN, ACMR, STVN, FNV, SAVE, SAVA, GDHG, ACLS, RVTY, ON and AEHR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ZI 2) BMBL 3) IGT 4) O 5) ASHR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RVTY 2) ON 3) NSSC 4) FTCH 5) EVA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +1.9% 2) Restaurants +1.3% 3) Insurance +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DAWN, DCPH, XPO, LITE, NRDS, SRC, GTLS, WDC, SAIA and TDOC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) COMM 2) ETRN 3) ON 4) NU 5) SLM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MCD 2) JKS 3) CHRS 4) XPO 5) DQ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AGCO)/3.31
• (AMGN)/4.68
• (CCJ)/-.07
• (CAT)/4.80
• (ETN)/2.34
• (BEN)/.59
• (GPN)/2.71
• (IGT)/.44
• (JBLU)/-.25
• (LGIH)/2.18
• (MPC)/7.75
• (PFE)/-.08
• (RGEN)/.16
• (SFM)/.62
• (SYY)/1.04

After the Close: 

• (AMD)/.68
• (CZR)/.29
• (CHK)/.55
• (CGNX)/.14
• (EQR)/.97
• (FSLR)/2.05
• (LTHM)/.48
• (MTCH)/.53
• (MTH)/5.12
• (NE)/.81
• (UNM)/1.92
• (YUMC)/.66
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Employment Cost Index for 3Q is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.0% gain in 2Q.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in July.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Aug. is estimated to rise +.75% versus a +.87% gain in July.

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Oct. is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 44.1 in Sept.

10:00 am EST

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Oct. is estimated to fall to 100.5 versus 103.0 in Sept.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -4.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.1 +.5
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 61.2% of Issues Advancing, 36.2% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 177 New Lows
• 25.0%(+5.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.8 +1.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,027.6 +.67%
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.0 -32.8%
  
• Vix 20.3 -4.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 -24.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.20 -15.5%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Risk of Israel-Hamas War Spillover Remains Elevated, US Says. 
• Israel-Hamas War Escalation Puts Qatar’s Clout to the Test.
• Israel Deepens a War With Hamas That Has No End in Sight. 
• How This Israel-Hamas Conflict Is Like Nothing That’s Happened Before. 
• China’s Government Debt Supply Surges in October to 2023 High.
• Germany Eyes Imports of Nigerian Natural Gas in Scholz Visit.
• House Prices Are Falling in Most Parts of the UK, Zoopla Says.
• Oil, Bonds Fall as Investors Temper Mideast Bets: Markets Wrap.
• Oil and Gas Markets Eye Escalation Risk as Gaza War Deepens.
• The Big Bond Market Event Wednesday Is at Treasury, Not the Fed. 
• Fed to Weigh How Much Fuel Consumers Have Left After Rate Hikes.
• Stock Traders Face Pivotal Week as Apple Steals Fed Spotlight. 
• 11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall.
• Hedge Funds Pile Into Uranium Stocks Poised for ‘Dramatic’ Gains.
• Johnson Says He Expects House to Pass Israel Aid Bill This Week. 
• Soaring Neutral Rate to Hurt Treasuries, Nasdaq, Survey Shows.

Zero Hedge:

• March 9, 2022... Will Live In Infamy
• David Hogg Now Blames "White Woman In Suburbs" For Gun Violence
• Breakthrough Study 'Infects' Animals With Human Alzheimer’s Through Microbiome.
• Gold's About To Have Its Day: Jim Grant Warns No One's Prepared For "Higher Yields For Much, Much, Much Longer".
• The Influence Of Influencers Is Rising... Except In China.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Jack Smith's War On Free Speech: AG Garland Should Rein In His Special Counsel.
• Attacks On US Bases In Syria Continue Unhindered After Pentagon's Friday Airstrikes.
• Cocky Runner Sprints From 172nd To 5th Place After Competing As A Girl.
• Wider War Will Bring Inevitable Attempts At Martial Law In America.
• Watch: Muslim Rioters Storm Airport, Surround Rumored Flight From Israel, In Southern Russia.
• The Specter Of Hyperinflation Looms Over The Economy.
• Mike Wilson: Forget About The Year-End Rally.
• Kendi's Critical Race Theory Is A Failed Marxist Doctrine.
• TME Weekend: Will Powell prevent a “scarytale” ending?
• Visualizing The Key Investment Theme Of Each Decade (1950-Today).
• DOJ Corroborated Information From FBI Source Who Provided Biden Bribery Allegations: Official.
• We Didn't Start The Fire.
• Silence Around Surgical Errors Is Jeopardizing Patients, Experts Say. 
• The Political Risks Of Mandating EVs For Everyone.
• How Migration Flows To Europe And North America Changed.
• Hamas’s October 7 Attack: Discourse In The Age Of Artificial Intelligence.
• White House Freezes Gun Exports In New Attack On US Gun Manufacturers.
• COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines Reduce A Major Beneficial Bacteria, Gut Biodiversity: Research.
• Advice For Men From TV's 'Hercules': Bring Back Masculinity.
• Warnings About Alarming Pre-Oct 7 Hamas Activity Ignored, Say Israeli Surveillance Soldiers.
• Senator Demands Answers From FDA On Safety Signal For COVID Vaccines And Children.

Wall Street Journal:

• Saving More in 401(k) Can Boost Your College Financial Aid.
• The Hunt for Crypto’s Most Famous Fugitive. ‘Everyone Is Looking for Me.’
• Israeli Ground Operation Pushes Deeper Into Gaza.
• Antisemitic Comments Increase Across Chinese Social Media.
• Iran’s Fellow Traveler in Mexico City. President López Obrador seems to be playing footsie with Iranian allies.
• Americans Can’t Stop Spending. Five Reasons Why.
• ‘Buy the Dip’ Investing Mantra Lives On in Bond Market.
• Hedge Fund Two Sigma Is Hit by Trading Scandal.
• Alaska Fishermen Struggle as Rules to Save King Salmon Limit Their Catch.
• Insurers Spar With Administration Over Coverage for Mental-Health Care.
• Thanks to Big Data, Landlords Can Squeeze the Most Out of Renters.

CNBC:

• UAW in tentative deal to end labor strike with Stellantis but expands its strike at General Motors.
• Panera now displaying warning about its caffeinated lemonade in all stores after lawsuit over customer’s death.

MarketWatch.com:

• How to ride out the ‘fear cycle’ in a spooky week ahead after U.S. stocks slip into correction.
• Big Tech earnings have been strong, but Apple is about to answer the thousand-dollar question.
• Opinion: Robo-taxis remain a pipe dream and greedy companies have only themselves to blame.
• A major source of liquidity for buying U.S. government debt is draining. Here’s why that’s bad news for the Fed and the market.
• Here’s how a government shutdown in November would likely impact stocks.

NewsMax:

• IDF Strikes Lebanon as Rockets Pummel Central Israel.
• Israeli Tanks Deep Into Gaza as Jets Hit Hundreds of Targets.
• Sullivan: US Asking Israel 'Hard Questions' on Gaza Operation.
• DeSantis: Biden 'Letting Iran Take Potshots' at US Troops.
• Rep. Hageman: Biden's Actions Helping Fund Iran.  
• DeSantis: There's 'Sickness on These College Campuses'.
• Speaker Johnson: Standalone Bill For Israel Likely This Week.

 Fox News:

• 'Squad' member issues stark warning to Biden regarding stance on Israel war.
• Treasury just dropped a financial bomb, but Bidenomics means the worst is yet to come.
• Experts reveal the worst beverages for your health — and they're not all alcoholic.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Strategist James Carville Claims Top Democrats Are Telling Him to Shut Up About Biden’s Dismal Polling Numbers.
• “I’m Ashamed of the UN – Let’s Get Out” – Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová Calls on Czech Republic to Exit UN After Rogue Regimes Cheer Hamas Following Slaughter of 1,400 Jewish Civilians
• Newsom Plows Over Small Child Then Spanks Him During Basketball Game in China (VIDEO)
• TERRIFYING VIDEOS: Muslim Lynch Mob Searches for Jews at Russian Airport in Dagestan; Storms Concourse and Tarmac, Tries to Search Planes After Rumor of Flight From Israel.
• Gun Sales Spike 200% in Maine After Tragic Mass Shooting.
• THOUSANDS of Palestinians Loot UN Warehouses in Gaza – UN Official Warns of “Civil Order Starting to Break Down” (VIDEO).
• At Least 18 Injured and 2 Dead in Shooting Incident During Halloween Celebration in Tampa, Florida.
• Michelle Obama Looks Disheveled in ‘Get Out the Vote’ Pitch Amid Rumors of Possible Presidential Bid.
• Canada’s Trudeau the Latest Leader to Backtrack and Delay on Climate Alarmist Policies – Rolls Back Home Heating Oil Carbon Tax for 3 Years.
• ‘It’s Not a Yes or No Question” – Crazed UMass Professor Rachel Weber Refuses to Say Hamas Slaughter of 1,400 Civilian Jews was a Terrorist Act (VIDEO).
• ‘Overcharged’: Major Study Reveals Alarming True Cost of Owning an EV, ‘Fueling’ Equal to $17.33 Per Gallon.
• Muslims Wave ISIS and Taliban Flags at Anti-Israel Protest in Hamburg, Germany.
• Engineering the Sky – The Great Climate Change Lie.
• AbleChild Founder Sheila Matthews on War Room: Psychology Industrial Complex Behind School Shootings (VIDEO).
• Mathew Perry’s Post Promoting “Could I Be Any More Vaccinated” Shirt Resurfaces After Star’s Death.
• New FDA Findings Reveal COVID-19 Shots Pose Stroke Risk in Older Adults When Combined with Certain Flu Shots – Just as the Biden Admin Was Promoting. 
• Sam Bankman-Fried Finally Deposes in His Defense, Gets Scolded by the Judge – Will Face Brutal Cross-Examination and Mysterious Rebuttal Witness.
• RED PILLED: Left Wing ‘Young Turks’ Co-Host Blasts Destructive Progressive Policies in California: ‘No One is Safe, Everyone’s Angry’ (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Ex-Premier's Sudden Deaths Adds to Leadership Turbulence: Analysts.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 988,705 Reports(+1,488 from prior week) Through September 29th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.75 unch.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 84.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 119.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.03%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.25 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.6 +1.2%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.30 -1.0 basis point. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.9 -1.6%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.22%.
• S&P 500 futures +.34%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.49%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Iran Warns of New Fronts Against the US If Gaza War Drags On.
• Israel Warns of ‘Long’ War as Invasion of Gaza Strip Begins. 
• One Last Make-or-Break Week of 2023 Has Treasury Traders on Edge.
• Market Turns Vicious on Profit Misses in Tough Earnings Season.
• Private Debt Funds Have a $500 Billion Conundrum.
• X Starts Subscription Tiers That Cost Up to $16 a Month. 
• Worst October for Stocks in Five Years Has Investors Exiting Market.
• Gold Jumps Past $2,000 as Israel-Hamas Clash Raises Haven Allure.
• Mortgage Rates at 8% Make a Brutal US Housing Market Even Worse.
• Exxon and Chevron Megadeals Reveal Why Days of Easy Oil Are Over.
• Charting the Global Economy: Inflation Picks Up in US, Tokyo.

Zero Hedge:

• House Weaponization Panel Gets IRS To End 'Abusive' Surprise Visits; Taibbi Thanks Jim Jordan
• Erdogan Vows To Get Israel Branded As "War Criminal" State, Also Blames West For Gaza "Massacre"
• Senator Demands Answers From FDA On Safety Signal For COVID Vaccines And Children.
• Joy Behar Reminds America She's A Moron With AR-15 Misinformation.
• House Speaker Johnson: Russia, China, & Iran Are The New Axis Of Evil.
• Hartnett: "The Greatest Credit Event Of All Is Disorderly Rise In Bond Yields Leading To Dollar Debasement".
• EV Skeptic Toyota Chairman Says People Are 'Finally' Waking Up To Reality Of Electric Vehicles.
• Musk Prepares To Save Gaza's Internet With Starlink Deployment.
• Our Neofeudal, Neocolonial World.
• Time To Think 'Quadrillions', As There's 'Zero Fiscal Restraint' In D.C.
• Pence Pulls Out Of Presidential Race As Trump's Lead Widens.
• Abercrombie & Epstein? Ex-CEO Sued Over Gay Sex Trafficking, Abuse Allegations.
• Biden Chose Venezuela Over Canada For Oil.
• Grand Central Terminal Shut Down By Left-Wing Pro-Palestinian Protesters.
• Earnings Beats Are Barely Rewarded, While Misses Unleash Hell.
• Israeli Tanks Exchange Fire With Hamas Inside Gaza, Small Arms Clashes Heard, As Offensive Expands.
• Emergency Oil Meeting Discusses Potential For Diesel Outages.
• These Are The Cities With The Most Bubble Risk In Their Property Markets.
• Pay No Attention To The Country Behind The Curtain.
• Fungal Infection In The Brain Produces Effects Similar To Alzheimer's.
• These Are The Most Popular Halloween Costumes In 2023.
• Watch: Zennials Are Terrified Of Military Draft As War Looms.
• Just The Facts On 'Geofencing'.

Wall Street Journal:

• Netanyahu Announces Second Phase of Gaza Operations
• Americans Stuck in Gaza. ‘Are We U.S. Citizens or Not?’
• UAW Expands Strike With GM After Reaching Tentative Deal With Stellantis
• Mortgage Companies Are Asking Ex-Employees to Give Back Their Bonuses
• Biden Has Canceled About $127 Billion of Student Loans Despite Supreme Court Ruling. Here’s How.
• The World’s Biggest Carmaker Made a Huge Bet on Tech. It Went Wrong Fast.
• Elon Musk’s Outlook on Our Future Turns Dour.
• The Shady ‘Work From Home’ Excuses.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (LLY).

CNBC:

• UAW expected to announce tentative agreement with Stellantis to end labor strike.
• Use this hidden Google feature to detect and delete your personal information in search. 
• Why it’s so expensive to be single in the U.S.
• What China’s slow-motion real estate crisis means for the global economy.

Reuters:

• Investors on edge as Middle East conflict intensifies.

MarketWatch.com:

• Is America’s spending spree ‘sustainable’? Consumers are leaning on their savings to spend, and some economists are worried.
• Here’s the next line in the sand the S&P 500 needs to defend or risk a bigger drop, says Bank of America.
• ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks have shed more than $1.2 trillion in value since the market’s July peak.
• Biden wants an extra $162 billion from Congress. Here’s how it could go with new House Speaker Mike Johnson.

NewsMax:   

• Israel Expands Ground Operation in Gaza, Bombs Hamas Tunnels.
• Netanyahu Spokesman: 'Cease-Fire Is Not Negotiable'.

Fox News:

• SOON: Netanyahu expected to speak after meeting with families of Hamas hostages.
• College lecturer refuses to answer when student asks if she would condemn terrorism.
• Billionaire pulls major funding to Ivy League school over anti-Israel protests on campus.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Adam Guillette, President of Accuracy in Media, Vows to Expand Operation to Expose College Anti-Semites After His Home Is Swatted in Florida.
• Happening Now: Tens of Thousands Protest Against Israel in London – Chants for “Intifada”.
• Documentary Implicates Schwab, Gates, WHO, UN and Other Globalist Entities in Massive Crime of ‘Democide’.
• University Draws Backlash After Students Offered Extra Credit to Attend Pro-Palestinian Event.
• Disney’s Controversial Woke Live-Action ‘Snow White’ is Being Delayed for a Year.
• War Criminal Dead: Israeli Forces Eliminate Hamas Operative Asem Abu Rakaba the Terror Leader Responsible for Paragliders Flying into an Israeli Concert to Murder Nearly 300 Youths.
• Radical California Dem Candidate in Critical Swing District BRAGS About Prosecuting January 6th Protesters – Gets Destroyed So Badly that He Limits Replies on His X/Twitter Account (VIDEO).
• Major Republican Donors Circling Back to Supporting Trump: ‘I Want to Win’.
• ‘Sanctuary City’ of New York Now Offering Illegal Immigrants Free One-Way Airplane Tickets to Leave.
• Greg Gutfeld Explains Pro-Hamas Protests on College Campuses: ‘You’re Witnessing a Hysteria’ (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Heads to Delaware For Another Vacation as US Forces Are Under Attack by Iran-Backed Terrorists (VIDEO).
• VIDEO: Hundreds of Alleged “Jewish-American Protesters” SHUT DOWN Grand Central Station in Manhattan – Demand Israel Halt Operations Against Hamas. 
• Ivanka Trump Will Be Forced to Testify in Father’s Trial After Judge’s Ruling.
• Billionaire Declares on Fox: College Students Protesting Israel ‘Have Sh*t for Brains,’ Vows to Cease Donations to Columbia University (VIDEO).
• Major Jewish Group Calls on NFL, MLB, NBA to End Their Support for #BLM AntiSemites.

Epoch Times:

• The Epoch Times:The Writing’s on the Great Wall for a China Crash.

X:

• @OvertonLive - NEW- Iran’s Top Diplomat: U.S. ‘Will Not Be Spared from This Fire’ if It Continues to Support Israel. (video)
• @spectatorindex - BREAKING: Iran's foreign minister says its allies have 'their finger on the trigger' amid impending Israeli ground campaign in Gaza.
• @kylenabecker - Debunking the Media's Claim That All of Trump's 2020 Election Challenges Were 'Baseless'.
• @matttttt187 - Covid-19 shots were not owned or made by Pfizer or Moderna. They were owned and made by the military. Pfizer and Moderna were paid to make it appear like it came from the pharmaceutical industry. (video) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warns Americans to stay away from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: "We will defend Palestine at any price." (video) The subtext is that there can be some privacy and confidentiality safeguards built into CBDCs, but at the end of the day those would still be subject to being overridden or dispensed with.
• @WallStreetSilv - Remember this gem of a video that SBF did? It was all about how SBF didn't care about money, he was going to give away his billions of $$$ to save the world. Crypto was just a method to make the world a better place. And the media praised him non-stop. (video)
• @BillMelugin_ - BREAKING: New CBP data reveals Border Patrol released over 900,000 migrants into the U.S. in fiscal year 2023 after they were apprehended crossing illegally, including a staggering 155,821 releases in September alone. These numbers do not include ICE or ports of entry releases. For context, 900,000+ is a population size larger than several US states, including Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, & North & South Dakota. (table)
• @unusual_whales - BREAKING: The average monthly mortgage payment is a whopping 52% higher than the average monthly rent on a house or apartment, the highest amount since the 2008 housing crash, per The Wall Street Journal.
• @Fxhedgers - SLUMP IN BIG PURCHASES CLASHES WITH GOVERNMENT’S STRONG CONSUMER DATA (Bloomberg). Sales of appliances, orthodontics and boats weaken, firms say. US needs Americans to keep up spending to avoid recession.
• @WatcherGuru - JUST IN: Elon Musk plans to turn X into a full on finance platform within a year, says you won't need a bank account anymore, Verge reports.
• @BenSwann_ -  WATCH — US Senator @RonJohnsonWI says COVID was “pre-planned by an elite group of people.” (video) WOW — Pascal Najadi, the son of WEF co-founder Hussain Najadi, is calling for the arrests of Bill Gates, WHO leadership, the WEF, Klaus Schwab, Big Tech and Pfizer. (video)
• @ImMeme0 - We live in Banana Republic. Shroyer NEVER enter the Capitol building during the riot. (pic)
• @TomFitton - Biden's authoritarian scheme to force us all to drive electric cars is faltering.
• @EndWokeness - Asian-American residents of Brighton Park, Chicago are furious about illegal migrants coming to their neighborhood. 87% of this area voted for Biden in 2020. (video)
• @TonyClimate - In 1923, the North Pole was melting, glaciers were vanishing and the Arctic was experiencing "unheard-of high temperatures." (pic)
• @IGSquawk - Weekend markets update: #DAX 14614 -0.06% #DOW 32355 -0.11% #NASDAQ 14143 -0.30% #FTSE 7269 +0.00% #HANGSENG 17195 0.00% #GBPUSD 12122.2 +0.07% #EURUSD 10564.4 -0.03% #USDJPY 14965.7 +0.05%.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 988,705 Reports(+1,488 from prior week) Through September 29th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.