Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.56 -2.64%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.62 +.77%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.66 -1.42%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.38 +.3%
- ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 +45.78%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.74 -3.16%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.50 -2.85%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.55 -7.0%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.61 -2.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 270.80 +.32%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 324.71 -.75%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% +1 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $70.42/Metric Tonne +.16%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.40 -6.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.30 +10.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 +1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +158 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -2.15% 2) Oil Service -1.31% 3) Construction -1.30%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- RNR, MCEP, OCR, POT, CPA, LRE, CBI, EXCU, CSH, TCP, QTWO, EQM, KEP, OPWR, JAH, TSL, MOS, T, KMT, UTX, SEP, ASML, JEC, CRM and NSLP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) UTX 2) TIF 3) C 4) SNDK 5) WMT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) SPF 2) TYC 3) XOM 4) BG 5) GM
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Biotech +1.39% 2) Airlines +1.04% 3) Semis +.87%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- PTP, RNA, TSEM, TTPH, OUTR, SRPT, URBN, LCI and DDD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) SNSS 2) TMUS 3) BKS 4) ARIA 5) AVP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) KATE 2) BERY 3) DENN 4) STX 5) HLS
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ukrainian Leader Evokes Stalin's Famine as Fight With Pro-Putin Rebels Intensifies.
President Petro Poroshenko evoked memories of the 1930s famine that
killed as many as 10 million Ukrainians under Soviet leader Joseph
Stalin to rally citizens as pro-Russian separatists intensified fighting
in the east. Poroshenko, flanked by his wife and administration
officials, laid a jar filled with grains in front of a candle-shaped
obelisk beside the Dnieper River
in Kiev yesterday to commemorate the famine, which was declared a
genocide in Nov. 28, 2006 by Ukrainian lawmakers. Russia has long
rejected the claim of genocide, calling it a “one-sided falsification of
history.”
- PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls. China’s benchmark stock index rose
to a three-year high after the central bank’s surprise interest
rate cut late last week. Recent history suggests the gains won’t last long. While
the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) climbed 2 percent today, six of
the past seven cuts to interest rates and reserve requirements have been
followed by declines in stock prices over the next two months. The last
time the PBOC lowered lending and deposit rates, in July 2012, the
benchmark index fell 7.4
percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
- OPEC Underestimated Resiliency of U.S. Oil Output: Yergin. OPEC
was mistaken in thinking that
U.S. shale oil production would be unprofitable once crude
prices slipped below $90 a barrel, according to Pulitzer Prize-winning
author Daniel Yergin. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
will have
a tough time coming to an agreement about production when
ministers gather Nov. 27 in Vienna, said the vice-chairman of
IHS Inc., an Englewood, Colorado-based consultant. Oil prices
plunged into a bear market last month, the result of a surge in
shale drilling that lifted U.S. output to a three-decade high,
as OPEC output rose and there were increasing signs of slower
demand growth.
- Asian Stocks Advance as China Rate Cut Boosts Optimism.
Asian stocks rose, with a regional gauge heading for its biggest
advance this month, after U.S. indexes reached another record as China’s
unexpected interest-rate cut stoked optimism in the global economy. In
Sydney, BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company that
gets about 35 percent of revenue from China, jumped 3.9 percent and
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. climbed 8.9 percent, rebounding from losses
the past two weeks. China Vanke Co., the nation’s biggest homebuilder by
sales, surged 6.8 percent in Hong Kong, pacing gains among mainland
developers. China Railway Construction Corp. gained 1.7 percent after
winning $1.98 billion worth of contracts in Saudi Arabia. The MSCI
Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index climbed 1.2 percent to 479.04 as of
9:48 a.m. in Hong Kong, heading for its biggest advance since Oct. 29.
- Gold Wagers Gain as China Rate Reduction Stems Rout.
Hedge funds added bullish gold wagers at the fastest pace since June as
central bank action from China to Japan and Europe helped stem the rout
in prices. The net-long position in New York futures and options
expanded 56 percent, U.S. government data show. Short holdings fell to a
two-month low and long wagers climbed for the first
time in four weeks.
- BHP(BHP) Targets Further Spending Cuts as Iron Prices Tumble.
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) plans to take a scalpel to capital spending and
costs to bolster cashflows as plunging iron ore and crude oil prices
heighten investor concerns over returns. Capital expenditure will be cut to $13 billion in fiscal 2016, downmore than 40 percent from 2012. The world’s biggest
mining company also increased its annual target for productivity
gains by 2017 by $500 million.
Wall Street Journal:
- No Iran Nuclear Deal Seen by Monday Deadline. U.S., Other World Powers Want to Extend Talks. The U.S. and other world powers said it will be virtually impossible
to reach a comprehensive deal to curb Iran’s nuclear activities by the
Monday night deadline, and they would favor extending the talks. U.S.
officials are arguing that preserving improved relations with Tehran is
preferable to a breakdown in more than a year of direct negotiations
and a potential escalation of tensions in an already-fractious Middle
East.
- Loan ‘Guarantee Chains’ in China Prove Flimsy. Companies Renege on Promises to Pay Up in a Default. When a fabric company called Jiangyin Xueyuan Textile Co. collapsed,
the troubles soon cascaded through other firms in this mill town. A
machinery maker, paper producer, manufacturer of faux-wood flooring and
textile maker had one thing in common. They had promised, in the event
of default, to repay the loans taken on by Xueyuan. Court documents say
the fabric company can’t pay what it owes.
Fox News:
MarketWatch.com:
- U.S., global business confidence slumps.
U.S. and global business confidence slumped in the third quarter,
according to a survey of business executives released Sunday. Markit
said its U.S. business outlook survey showed that a net 31.2% of
executives saw growing activity for the next 12 months in October, down
from a net 51.4% when they were surveyed in June. That’s the lowest
reading since the survey started in 2009. A global survey conducted by
Markit saw a net 28% expecting higher activity, down from 39% in June,
to mark a five-year low. Optimism in the eurozone was the weakest since
June 2013, and Russian confidence fell to a survey low. In the U.S., hiring intentions fell to a new survey low, as did investment intentions.
Reuters:
- Mexico cuts 2014 growth forecast after surprisingly weak 3rd qtr. Mexico's
finance ministry cut its 2014 growth forecast on Friday after the
economy grew unexpectedly slowly in the third quarter in a modest
recovery that is now also threatened by rising social unrest. Mexican
gross domestic product expanded 0.5 percent in the third quarter from
the second, the national statistics agency said on Friday, slowing from a
downwardly revised 0.9 percent growth in the April-to-June period. A
Reuters poll had projected 0.7 percent growth.
Financial Times:
- US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low. US imports of crude oil from Opec nations is at its lowest level in
almost 30 years, underlining the impact of the shale revolution on
global trade flows.
Telegraph:
Spiegel:
- Germany Sees Danger of Separation of East Ukraine. Reality in
eastern Ukraine isn't in line w/Russia's promise not to destroy
country's unity, citing interview w/German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter
Steinmeier.
Night Trading
- Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 -1.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.0 -1.75 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October is estimated to fall to .4 versus .47 in September.
9:45 am EST
- The Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for November is estimated to rise to 57.3 versus 57.1 in October.
10:30 am EST
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for November is estimated to fall to 9.0 versus 10.5 in October.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The $28B 2Y T-Note auction and the (ASML) investor day could
also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
Week Ahead (audio) by Bloomberg.
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as global
growth worries, Russia/Ukraine tensions and rising European/Emerging
Markets debt angst offset central bank hopes, seasonal strength and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving
neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.