Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on yen weakness, oil bounce, less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, technical buying, buyout speculation and more economic optimism. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Saudi-Led Bloc Seeks Diplomatic Fix to Impasse With Qatar. Saudi Arabia and its allies want to resolve their standoff with Qatar through diplomacy and don’t seek regime change, U.A.E. Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said at a press conference in Dubai. “There is no intention for any sort of escalation,” Gargash said Saturday when asked about military intervention against Qatar if negotiations fail to end the impasse. “This is not about regime change, this is about behavioral change.”

• Hundreds Evacuated From London Towers as Fire Fallout Widens.

• Fed’s Long, Strange Inflation Trip Feels Like a 1960s Flashback.

• Health Stocks Surge, Shrugging Off Uncertainty in Washington. (video) There’s plenty of uncertainty about health policy in Washington, but on Wall Street, investors have a clear hunger for health stocks. After Republican Donald Trump’s presidential-election victory, the health-care sector trailed the pack as the wider market rallied. Heated campaign rhetoric from Trump and Democratic rival Hillary Clinton made investors wary that Washington would tamp down drug prices and take other steps to radically remake the health-care marketplace. Now, such fears are fading, and health stocks are making up for lost time. The Russell 2000 Health Care Index has gained 4.6 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Health Care Index has gained 2.2 percent since Tuesday. The jump means the sector has erased the performance gap with the broader market, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Heller Is Fifth GOP Senator Who Says He Won’t Vote for Health Bill in Current Form. Senate GOP leaders can afford to lose no more than two senators.

• Colleges Promise to Be Less Politically Correct. After protests shut down events hosting conservative speakers, schools reassess approach to free speech.

• Fed Officials Split on Inflation’s Path. The divide could influence the timing of the next interest-rate increase.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (BABA), (AIZ) and (NCR).

Fox News: 

• Trudeau: Trump does listen, NAFTA will remain. (video)

• Trump questions why Obama allegedly did 'nothing' about Russia hacking, in Fox interview. (video)

CNBC:

• Bitcoin speculators are the new day traders.

• Wal-Mart(WMT) not considering Whole Foods bid: Reuters. (video)

• DR Horton(DHI) to rally nearly 15% due to booming housing market, Credit Suisse says.

Zero Hedge:

• Bernie Sanders & Wife Under FBI Investigation For Bank Fraud.

• Angry Dems Turn On Obama, Pelosi, Schumer: "Talk Less About Russia".

• CIA Director Mike Pompeo: Trump's "An Avid Consumer" Of Intel, Will "Punish Leakers".

• Two Italian Zombie Banks Toppled Friday Night.

• US-China Agree On Need For "Complete, Irreversible" Korean Denuclearization.

• An Open Letter To The Fed's William Dudley.

• "They Can And Should Do More" Australian State Slams Banks With $280 Million Tax.

• Former Fed Governor: "The Fed Isn't As Independent As Many Think".

• Canary In The Coal Mine: Unfunded Liabilities Have Turned Illinois Into A "Banana Republic".

• CNN Deletes 'Fake News' Story About Russian Investment Ties To Trump.

• Exposing Our Lawless Central Bank.

• Brexit One Year On: Political Chaos, Pounded Currency, & Pressured Consumers. (graph)

• Weekend Reading: Oil Slick. (graph)

• Banks Battered, Biotechs Best As Yield Curve Crashes To 10-Year Lows. (graph)

Business Insider:

• There’s a surprising new champion of the stock market.

• 'I'm glad he got shot': Democratic Party official fired after obscene comments on Rep. Steve Scalise.

NY Times:

• A Street Fight Among Grocers to Deliver Your Milk, Eggs, Bananas. Delivering food requires military precision: Bananas can’t get cold. Produce can’t get warm. Eggs, of course, must not get broken. And people expect their food to arrive at specific times. Mr. Browne, 40, is a driver for the online grocery business Peapod. He plays the most important role in solving the biggest problem vexing the online grocery industry: moving food, undamaged and unspoiled, from the warehouse to the customer’s house. It’s known as the last-mile problem.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,438.11 +.29%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,438.11 +.29%

• DJIA 21,371.90 +.09%

• NASDAQ 6,252.24 +1.86%

• Russell 2000 1,412.32 +.46%

• S&P 500 High Beta 36.59 -.68%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 133.27 +2.27%

• Wilshire 5000 25,226.90 +.30%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,209.43 +1.18%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,136.55 -.62%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 573.17 -.69%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3014 -1.33%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,509.45 +3.21%

• Transports 9,417.73 -.15%

• Utilities 727.61 -1.24%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 96.60 -1.33%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.39 +.56%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,194.60 +.11%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 993.56 +.22%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 291,996 -.13%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 82 +123

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 45.83 -3.52%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 358,999 -6.14%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,176,740 -2.33%

• Total Put/Call .94 -14.02%

• OEX Put/Call 4.91 +187.13%

• ISE Sentiment 122.0 +110.0%

• NYSE Arms .94 -28.26%

• Volatility(VIX) 9.95 -4.91%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.37 -8.54%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.28 +.28%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.40 -2.12%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,846.86 +.07%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.618 Trillion -.61%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.405 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 32.7 +1.2%

• AAII % Bears 28.9 -1.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 167.74 -3.09%

• Crude Oil 42.96 -4.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 143.20 -1.59%

• Natural Gas 2.93 -3.37%

• Heating Oil 137.26 -3.73%

• Gold 1,256.90 +.13%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 174.66 +2.49%

• Copper 262.65 +2.26%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 261.67 USD/Ton -1.13%

• China Iron Ore Spot 56.75 USD/Ton +1.79%

• Lumber 363.80 -.41%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,017.10  -3.57%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.9 -50.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.4% -80.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0509 -4.5% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 171.23 +17.68%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 137.98 +.48%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -74.60 -31.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.7 -34.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.90 +4.0 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 88.0% chance of no change 12.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 7/26

• US Dollar Index 97.19 -.16%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,603.23 -.08%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.48 +.36%

• Yield Curve 83.0 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.15% -6.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.435 Trillion -.03%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.82 -4.11%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 392.0 -.06%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 6.08 -8.5%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 19.23 +11.07%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 52.55 +3.55%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.56 +2.16%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.08 +.18%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 170.08 +2.77%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 139.34 +.13%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71% +3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 34.0 +5.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.0 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 60.51 -.84%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 489.0 +14.9%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.25 -13.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 198.74 +.79%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 146.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.478 Trillion -.24%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 979.0 +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 244,750 +2,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.90% +1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 445.20 +.59%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.40 -.5 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.5% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.28/gallon -.07/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 855.0 +.47%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 851.26 +.68%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 276,777 -1.01%

Best Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Growth +1.9%

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Value -.9%

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +9.1%

• Steel +4.4%

• Social Media +4.2%

• Gold & Silver +4.2%

• Software +3.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -2.1% 

• Insurance -2.2%

• Internet -2.7%

• Energy -2.9%

• Oil Service -6.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)

• CLVS, BLCM, WFM, ARNA, OTIC, ESPR, RICE, CARA, LZB, ENTA, SYNA, ORCL, RHT, CA, FND, PLYA, GBT, PTLA, AMSWA, ARA, PKI and PRXL

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (19)

• NODK, PCSB, PNFP, HAIN, CMG, POST, KR, TGT, ROIC, YORW, EQT, COST, CIR, UNFI, BAH, EXXI, PVAC, SCS and SGY

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change