Monday, January 24, 2005

Mid-day Report

S&P 500 1,171.95 +.35%
NASDAQ 2,030.13 -.20
%

Leading Sectors
Energy +1.48%
Oil Service +1.46%
Utilities +1.26%

Lagging Sectors
Boxmakers -.84%
Internet -.90%
Airlines -2.83%

Other
Crude Oil 48.60 +.14%
Natural Gas 6.44 +3.21%
Gold 427.20 +.07%
Base Metals 120.95 -.08%
U.S. Dollar 83.32 +.07%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.14% unch.
VIX 14.29 -.49%
Put/Call .77 -7.23%
NYSE Arms .98 -41.32%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 -7.05%

Market Movers
RIMM -5.62% after Barron’s reported the company faces increasing competition from cell-phone makers that offer camera capabilities and other functions.
ADSK -13.28% after Banc of America cut it to Sell.
COCO +12.3% after saying the SEC ended an informal inquiry without recommending action.
MERQ +12.81% after boosting 4Q estimates.
INCX +9.03% on Roth Capital upgrade to Buy.
LM +5.03% after beating 3Q estimates substantially.
CPO +4.38% on Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy.
TZOO -19.65% after missing 4Q estimates.
CCMP -10.22% after Lehman downgrade to Equalweight.
CME -4.02% on continued profit-taking.
DECK -5.0% on continued profit-taking.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on CVD, DTV, SBC, BLS, IPP, SPP. Reiterated Underperform on . Rated WYNN and LVS Outperform.
-Citi SmithBarney: Rated WOLF to Buy, target $26. Rated CONR Buy, target $26. Raised FIC to Buy, target $43. Cut APU to Sell, target $26.
-Banc of America: Lowered ADSK to Sell, target $25. Downgraded OKE to Sell, target $23.
-JP Morgan: Added FNM to Focus List, target $80. Raised EAT to Overweight. Rated LVS Overweight.
-UBS: Downgraded UHS to Reduce, target $35.
-Deutsche Bank: Raised ISIL to Buy, taget $17. Raised CPO to Buy, target $62.
-CIBC: Rated CONR, target $26. Raised MCD to Sector Outperform.
-CSFB: Rated CSCO Outperform, target $22.50.
-Morgan Stanley: Raised ATHR to Overweight, target $15.
-Legg Mason: Raised CTSH to Buy, target $47.
-Merrill Lynch: Rated SIRI Buy, target $7.50. Raised LIZ to Buy.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as gains in energy-related stocks are being offset by weakness in the technology sector. Walt Disney Co. still needs to address problems at the company’s ABC television network before it can successfully confront rivals including Fox television, the Wall Street Journal said. Mexico and the country’s powerful drug lords are heading for a major confrontation, the Wall Street Journal reported. EchoStar Communications won’t make major gains on its rival DirectTV Group by acquiring Cablevision Systems’ satellite unit for $200 million, the Wall Street Journal reported. General Motors, Motorola and Campbell Soup are among the companies increasing their spending on “event marketing” at the Super Bowl, the Wall Street Journal reported. US watchdogs are paying closer attention to hedge funds, which were for years lightly regulated on the assumption that the wealthy they catered to could handle the risk, the Wall Street Journal reported. Take-Two Interactive Software reached a game-software licensing accord with the union representing Major League Baseball players, the Wall Street Journal reported. Research In Motion’s bid to overturn a US patent-infringement ruling against it received support from EarthLink, the NY Times reported. The US Air Force and Navy may have to turn away thousands of potential recruits, even as the Army and Marine Corps are having difficulty meeting their annual recruiting goals, USA Today reported. Iran’s nuclear program is close to a “point of no return,” where the Islamic state won’t need any outside help in enriching uranium to build an atomic weapon, Israel’s spy agency chief said, the Jerusalem Post reported. The California Institute for Regenerative Medicine, the new stem-cell research facility, will consider putting its headquarters in either San Francisco or San Diego, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Fidelity Investments is losing customers in Canada and struggling to compete with domestic banks that have made the nation’s investment market among the fastest-growing anywhere, Bloomberg said. Police can use drug-sniffing dogs to check vehicles stopped for traffic offenses, even without reason to suspect the presence of illegal narcotics, the US Supreme Court ruled. ImClone Systems agreed to pay $75 million to settle a class-action shareholder lawsuit from 2002 accusing the company of making false or misleading statements about prospects for its Erbitux colon-cancer drug, Bloomberg reported. Microsoft said it won’t appeal a European court antitrust decision that requires it to immediately begin licensing protocols to rivals and selling a stripped-down version of its Windows operating system, Bloomberg said. Monsanto agreed to buy Seminis for $1 billion in cash from Fox Paine & Co. and minority investors to gain the largest maker of vegetable and fruit seeds, Bloomberg reported. American Express said profit rose 17% last quarter as rising consumer confidence boosted card use, Bloomberg reported.

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my auto parts and software shorts are offsetting losses in my commodity-related shorts. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still market neutral. The tone of the market is weaker today, notwithstanding the mixed performance by the major indices. The advance/decline line is poor and volume is decent. As well, most measures of investor anxiety are falling. On the positive side, bonds are holding recent gains and crude oil finding stiff resistance at $49-$49.50/bbl. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-weaker into the close.

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