Thursday, January 27, 2005

Thursday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,174.55 +.04%
Dow 10,467.40 -.30%
NASDAQ 2,047.15 +.05%
Russell 2000 616.90 +.05%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,550.59 +.05%
S&P Barra Growth 565.40 +.11%
S&P Barra Value 604.86 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.96 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 747.90 -.05%
Morgan Stanley Technology 470.03 +.50%
Transports 3,554.12 +.47%
Utilities 339.44 +.61%
Put/Call .84 +5.0%
NYSE Arms .92 -19.30%
Volatility(VIX) 13.24 -1.49%
ISE Sentiment 184.00 -8.91%
US Dollar 83.36 -.08%
CRB 285.50 -.79%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 48.50 -.59%
Unleaded Gasoline 135.19 unch.
Natural Gas 6.29 -.96%
Heating Oil 139.03 -.47%
Gold 428.40 unch.
Base Metals 121.07 +.02%
Copper 142.75 +.04%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.20% unch.

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.18%
Defense +1.17%
HMOs +1.10%

Lagging Sectors
Boxmakers -.84%
Homebuilders -.86%
Telecom -1.31%

After-hours Movers
SNDK +16.6% after beating 4Q estimates.
OSTK -13.1% on profit-margin worries after beating 4Q estimates.
MSTR +17.60% after beating 4Q estimates.
MCK +7.1% after beating 3Q estimates and reiterating forecast.
WDC +7.4% after beating 2Q estimates.
RHI +9.8% after beating 4Q estimates.
XRTX +10.2% after boosting 1Q estimates substantially.
TPX +5.2% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 05 guidance.
GILD +5.1% after beating 4Q estimates.
IRF -4.1% after missing 2Q revenue estimate and lowering 3Q guidance.

Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote

Afternoon Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on GILD, MSFT, PG and MO. Reiterated Underperform on DJ, JBLU and RAI.
-Prudential Equity: Downgraded DJ to Underweight, target $36.
-Business Week: Kroger(KR) shares may rise as much as 39% within the next year as the No.1 US grocery store chain begins to sell non-food items with higher profit margins. Shares of Biosite(BSTE), a diagnostics company whose tests are used in half of US hospitals, could rise about $70 in a year. Arrowhead Research’s(ARWR) shares may reach $6 in a year.

After-hours News
US stocks finished mixed today as gains in energy-related stocks were offset by losses in homebuilders and telecom shares. After the close, the European Union will suspend its 18-month-old sanctions against Cuba next week, following moves by Fidel Castro’s government to renew contacts with all EU countries earlier this month, Agence France-Presse reported. Chinese central bank adviser Yu Yongding said now is the time for the People’s Bank of China to revalue the yuan, Dow Jones reported. Counterfeiting of brand-name products accounts for 5% to 7% of the global merchandise trade, or lost sales of as much as $512 billion last year, Business Week reported. Ahmad Chalabi, a prominent candidate in the Iraqi elections, told Reuters the country should be divided into three self-governing regions, including a Shiite Arab south containing oil fields. Wal-Mart’s expansion into financial services is worrying banks that fear they may not be able to compete with the world’s largest retailer, Business Week reported. Defibrillators made by companies including Medtronic and Guidant will get health insurance coverage for a third more heart-failure patients in the Medicare program, US health officials said. Private accounts should be set up as an addition to Social Security rather than a partial replacement, said Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska, a key Democrat considering revisions to the retirement system, Bloomberg reported. Tribune co. and three television networks tomorrow plant to appeal a court ruling that blocked media companies from acquiring more local TV stations and newspapers, Bloomberg reported. President Bush will ask Congress for $3.2 billion in AIDS-related funding in his fiscal 2006 budget recommendation, maintaining a commitment to a five-year outlay of $15 billion, Bloomberg reported. Microsoft said second-quarter profit doubled on lower stock-based compensation costs, sales of Windows for corporate networks and the Xbox video console, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slight lower today as losses in my Internet and homebuilding longs more than offset gains in my restaurant and networking longs. I exited a couple of telecom and homebuilding longs in the afternoon and added a few new technology and retail longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is URBN and I am keeping a $39.25 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market improved modestly on the close and stocks are responding well after-hours to positive news. I continue to believe that a tradable rally has begun and will likely intensify next week. I will likely add market exposure tomorrow on any extreme weakness related to the GDP report or fears related to the Iraqi elections.

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