Thursday, January 06, 2005

Mid-day Report

S&P 500 1,188.13 +.37%
NASDAQ 2,094.29 +.20%


Leading Sectors
Energy +2.16%
Oil Service +2.01%
Biotech +1.48%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -.77%
Software -99%
Airlines -2.12%

Other
Crude Oil 45.25 +4.29%
Natural Gas 5.92 +1.49%
Gold 422.20 -1.19%
Base Metals 118.72 +1.32%
U.S. Dollar 83.11 +.68%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.27% -.18%
VIX 13.61 -3.69%
Put/Call .88 -5.38%
NYSE Arms .98 -13.91%
ISE Sentiment 226.0 +13.57%

Market Movers
SYMC -5.95% on multiple downgrades due to competition from MSFT.
WWCA +14.29% on speculation of buyout by Alltel(AT) -3.51%.
STIY +34.0% on optimism for its stun gun.
ANTP +14.96% on rebound from recent fall.
ANN +12.34% on optimism over Dec. same-store-sales and outlook.
CHS +11.1% after reporting strong Dec. same-store-sales and 2-for-1 split.
PNRA +15.4% on strong Dec. same-store-sales and Piper Jaffray upgrade to Outperform.
GTRC +9.9% after boosting 4Q forecast.
AEOS +6.0% on strong Dec. same-store-sales.
HELE +9.5% after beating 3Q estimates and affirming 4Q outlook.
BKST -15.63% on weak holiday same-store-sales and Southwest Securities downgrade to Neutral.
NWY -12.8% after cutting 4Q and 05 forecasts.
MSM -6.9% on profit-taking after meeting 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q outlook.
TGT -4.89% after cutting 4Q growth estimates.
ARO -7.07% on disappointing Dec. same-store-sales and multiple downgrades.
CPWM -7.6% after lowering 4Q guidance.

Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 364K versus estimates of 331K and a downwardly revised 321K the prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2840K versus 2779K prior.

Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on CAT, IBM, IR, BBY, PFE, MDT, KSS, MSFT and Underperform on AG, CNH, IHR, MHX, MAY.
-Citi SmithBarney: Upgraded ELX to Buy, target $20.50. Said to Buy CPO now on weakness before earnings report, target $57. Reiterated Buy on EXTR, target $11. Reiterated Buy on FFIV, target $60. Reiterated Buy on FDRY, target $15. Reiterated Buy on RDWR, target $32. Reiterated Buy on JNPR, target $36. Reiterated Buy on AA, target $42. Reiterated Buy on SEBL, target $12.
-JP Morgan: Rated BK Overweight.
-Deutsche Bank: Rated POWI Buy, target $23.
-Morgan Stanley: Raised STN to Overweight, target $66. Rated CLF Overweight. Rated RSAS Overweight, target $21. Rated SYMC Underweight, target $22. Rated CHKP Underweight, target $17.
-Bear Stearns: Raised MDT Outperform.
-Banc of America: Raised IPXL to Buy, target $21.
-Oppenheimer: Rated WGII Buy. Raised CL to Buy, target $61.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly higher mid-day on strength in energy-related stocks and lower interest rates. Apple Computer is being sued for allegedly violating antitrust laws with its iTunes online music store, which doesn’t work with digital music players other than the company’s iPod, Reuters reported. Audiovox Electronics, Pioneer Electronics and Alpine Electronics are among companies likely to benefit from increased demand for car navigation systems that help drivers avoid traffic congestion, the Wall Street Journal said. Investment returns on university and foundation endowments rose to 14.7% in the fiscal year ended June 2004, the best results in four years, the Wall Street Journal reported. Six Apart, which makes the Moveable Type software to publish Blogs, bought Danga Interactive, which publishes the LiveJournal.com Web log site, the NY Times reported. A joint session of the US Congress plans today to certify the presidential election results, and Senator Kerry said he would not participate in a possible protest by Democrats, the NY Times reported. Honeywell Intl. was sued by the state of Illinois for polluting the air after two accidental releases of toxic gas from a plant in southern Illinois, the AP reported. US Airways reached an agreement with its machinists union, which is expected to be ratified in the next few weeks, CNBC said. American Airlines and four other US carriers matched Delta Air Lines lower prices on some flights and dropped other restrictions, Bloomberg reported. US retailers including Wal-Mart and Saks posted the second-biggest holiday sales gain of the last five years after a late shopping surge lifted December sales, Bloomberg said. Microsoft released a free tool to erase spyware programs and will offer a virus-removal program, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil is rising after the Iranian and Qatari oil ministers signaled that OPEC may follow through on output cuts promised last month, Bloomberg said. The US dollar is rising against the euro for a fifth day, the longest rally in more than a year, on optimism faster US job growth will bolster the case for higher interest rates, Bloomberg reported.

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my internet and networking longs are offsetting losses in my software and steel shorts. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still market neutral. The tone of the market is better, but not good. Advancers are outpacing decliners modestly and volume is lighter. Technology stocks are underperforming the broad market. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower today, however the AAII % Bulls plunged to 38.1% this week, which is a positive. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering ahead of tomorrow’s employment report.

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