Friday, January 28, 2005

Friday Watch

Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher on China United Telecom, the nation's second-biggest mobile-phone company, won't be broken up, China Securities Journal reported. Procter & Gamble is close to buying Gillette in a $55 billion stock-swap, the Wall Street Journal reported. US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and his British counterpart, Geoff Hoon, agreed on a strategy for withdrawing forces from Iraq, the London-based Guardian newspaper said. Iraqi interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi may gain the most support in the National Assembly election Jan. 30 because he appeals to all sides of the nation's religious and ethnic divisions, according to interviews with voters and the latest opinion poll, Bloomberg reported. Israel and the Palestinian Authority have improved conditions between them and may be able to reach a "historic breakthrough" in their relations, Israeli Prime Minister Sharon said. About half of the 25 most popular stocks with short sellers on the Nasdaq Stock Market may become harder to bet against today due to Regulation SHO, Bloomberg reported. China's retail sales may rise about 13% this year to more than $724 billion, the Economic Information Daily said. Crude oil prices may decline next week amid speculation supply won't be disrupted by insurgents during Iraq's elections on Jan. 30, according to a Bloomberg survey. The US opened a national-security probe of International Business Machine's planned sale of its personal-computer business to China's Lenovo Group Ltd. after the companies failed to win clearance during an initial review, Bloomberg reported.

Late Recommendations
Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on GILD, PG, PCO, CL, GNW, UPS, MCK, DHR, NUE, CAT, DTV and TRI. Reiterated Underperform on MRO.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.07%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.33%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
ADM/.39
BEC/.98
CVX/1.40
HAL/.48
HON/.49
ITT/1.25
MMC/.28
MYG/.17
MCD/.46
MYL/.18
OSIP/-.71
PSFT/.21
SII/.57
TDW/.32
TRB/.70

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
-Advance 4Q GDP estimated to rise 3.5% versus a 4% gain in 3Q.
-Advance 4Q Personal Consumption estimated to rise 4.3% versus a 5.1% increase in 3Q.
-Advance 4Q GDP Price Deflator estimated to rise 2.1% versus a 1.4% increase in 3Q.
-Employment Cost Index for 4Q estimated to rise .8% versus a .9% gain in 3Q.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US equities to open modestly higher in the morning as optimism over earnings reports, merger activity, stabilizing oil prices and good economic reports offsets apprehension ahead of the Iraqi elections. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.

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