Thursday, January 13, 2005

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,177.45 -.86%
NASDAQ 2,070.56 -1.05%


Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +1.86%
Oil Service +1.76%
Iron/Steel +1.71%

Lagging Sectors
Biotech -1.65%
Drugs -1.69%
Airlines -2.94%

Other
Crude Oil 47.90 -.29%
Natural Gas 6.54 +1.55%
Gold 425.60 +.12%
Base Metals 119.34 -.95%
U.S. Dollar 82.51 +.41%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.17% -1.48%.
VIX 12.84 +2.23%
Put/Call .83 -8.79%
NYSE Arms 1.47 +77.11%
ISE Sentiment 156.00 -6.02%

After-hours Movers
CREE -22.01% after missing 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q forecast.
SUNW -4.15% after missing 2Q revenue estimates.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs expects VRTS to beat consensus revenue and eps estimates for December quarter. Goldman thinks steel stocks are oversold, favorites are STLD, NUE and X. UBS rated AMAT, KLAC, LRCX and VSEA Buy. GenCorp Inc.(GY), a maker of aerospace components, may face more takeover bids as investors focus on assets that include undeveloped land, Business Week reported. Spectrum Pharmaceuticals may see its shares climb as it seeks to introduce a generic version of GlaxoSmithKline’s Imitrex migraine drug, Business Week reported. Bandag’s(BDG) sales growth may benefit from last year’s acquisition of Speedco, Business Week reported.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower today, spurred by a late-afternoon sell-off on increased worries over economic growth. After the close, Mahmoud Abbas, the newly elected Palestinian leader, said he will work to implement the conditions of the internationally backed “road map” peace plan and called on Israel to reciprocate, the AP reported. European online advertisement is increasing at an average of 24% a year, with the biggest increases in Sweden, France and the Netherlands, the Financial Times reported. The European Parliament has voted in favor of beginning the process that will lead to Ukraine becoming a member of the European Union, the Financial Times said. The tsunami disaster in southern Asia and eastern Africa “devastated” the fishing industry in the region, destroying docks, boats and ice plants, Bloomberg reported. The US Treasury Department said companies can’t use foreign profit returned to the US during a one-year tax holiday to repurchase shares or pay dividends to shareholders, Bloomberg said. Molson Inc. will increase its special dividend to shareholders by 67% as part of their transaction with Adolph Coors, Bloomberg reported. General Motors plans two-thirds of its future growth in emerging markets such as China, Brazil and Russia after competition from Toyota Motor and other rivals limited gains in the US and Europe, Bloomberg said. Microsoft’s control over how information is presented on the Web may be challenged by the success of Mozilla’s Firefox Web browser, Business Week said. Taiwan’s five makers of flat-panel displays may have combined losses in the fourth-quarter of more than $314 million as product prices drop, the Commercial Times reported. Taiwan’s four largest computer makers can’t get enough Intel processors for desktop computers or graphics chips from ATI Technologies and Nvidia Corp., the Commercial Times reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as gains in my homebuilding and wireless longs offset losses in my steel and chemical shorts. I exited a number of longs in the afternoon as they hit stop-losses and added a few new shorts, thus bringing the Portfolio’s market exposure to 25% net long. One of my new shorts is WBSN and I am using a $53 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market weakened significantly in the final hour of trading as the advance/decline line fell to it lows for the day and volume picked up. The slide seemed to coincide with the announcement from the Treasury Department regarding profit repatriation. Measures of investor anxiety mostly rose, but are still not at levels normally associated with a durable bottom. Interest rates fell substantially today and should continue to fall modestly in the intermediate-term as measures of inflation decelerate, the US dollar stabilizes and worries over global economic growth worsen.

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