Monday, January 17, 2005

Tuesday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
ABT/.67
AMD/.08
CHKP/.29
AMTD/.19
BAC/.94
FRX/.67
FCX/.69
IBM 1.76
JNPR/.14
LLTC/.32
MOT/.24
RYL/2.08
STX/.24
STT/.58
WFC/1.06
TER/.02
YHOO/.11

Splits
EV 2-for-1
SHFL 3-for-2

Economic Data
Empire Manufacturing for January estimated at 25.0 versus 29.93 in December.
NAHB Housing Market Index for January estimated at 70 versus 71 in December.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on JNJ, IBM, TX, HNZ MCRL and mixed on XTO, CBSS, ASN, FSL, AAPL. Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on TYC, C, SC, AMAT, GLW and mixed on MSO. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on NSC, SONS, VVR, CVX, WIT, DELL and mixed on GM. Barron's had positive comments on RVSN, LOGI, PLCM, GMST, TTWO, CRI, ETP, BRK/A, CAS, NVH, PSUN, WLL, AHL, XEC, AMGN, BIIB, GENZ, PFE, TYC, MCD, C and RIO. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BSX, GE and DKS. Goldman reiterated Underperform on EW and MAY. Ken Fisher sees a 25% gain for the S&P 500 in 2005, he likes FLS and FMS.

Weekend News
The NYSE is considering opening earlier in order to lure some trading away from European markets, the Financial Times reported. A new, low-carb potato may stem the decline in the vegetable's consumption caused by the increasing popularity of the Atkins diet, the London-based Times reported. Goldcorp Inc. investors will be weighing executives' arguments as they consider a $2.3 billion merger with Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. or a $3 billion hostile takeover bid from Glamis Gold Ltd., Barron's said. Oracle, Agilent Technologies and Johnson & Johnson are among companies that would benefit from a temporary tax change allowing the repatriation of earnings from foreign affiliates, Barron's said. China plans to build at least one nuclear reactor each year between now and 2020 in an ambitious expansion at a pace comparable to that of the US in the 1970s, the NY Times reported. The US and India reached an air travel agreement that will lead to more flights between the two countries, a drop in fares and stronger economic relations, the AP reported. Intel Corp. will on Wednesday unveil a new chipset, its biggest launch since Centrino in 2003, The Business reported. President Bush's approval rating climbed to 53% as more Americans support his economic policies, according to a Time magazine poll. Fund managers forecast stock markets will rise in 2005, the US dollar will further decline and China's economy will experience a "soft landing," the Guardian said, citing a Morgan Stanley poll. US retail stores are using new technologies such as projectors that display product details on floors and walls and wireless phone systems to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the Washington Post reported. US retailers could face probes into whether they use racial profiling to identify potential shoplifters, the Wall Street Journal said, citing NY Attorney General Spitzer. Planned reductions of $30 billion in the US military budget have caused shares of weapons companies to nosedive, but the market may have overreacted, the Wall Street Journal reported. US television networks, including Disney's ABC and GE's NBC, are increasingly making product-placement agreements to boost advertising revenue, the Wall Street Journal reported. TiVo Inc. plans to offer its video recording system and develop other technology for television viewers without partnerships with cable companies, the NY Times said. Educational Testing Service, which administers 25 million tests annually, is planning a new examination to assess students' command of information technology skills, the NY Times reported. Fleetwood Enterprises Inc., the maker of recreational vehicles, has teamed up with vacation exchange operator RCI to offer a shared ownership program for motor homes, the Financial Times said. About 5.6 million American workers age 50 and older are self-employed today, 23% more than in 1990, USA Today said. FedEx Corp. CEO Smith said a fuel surcharge introduced for its ground shipping business Jan. 1 would restore the unit's margins, Reuters reported. The China Securities Regulatory Commission may announce measures to bolster slumping stock markets, Shanghai Securities News reported. US Army Specialist Charles Graner Jr. was sentenced to 10 years in prison for his role in the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal, Fox News reported. Saudi Arabia can pump as much as 11 million barrels a day and is currently producing about 9 million barrels a day, Bloomberg reported. Hewlett-Packard will sell new computers based on Intel's Itanium processors in a push to replace machines made by IBM and Sun Microsystems, Bloomberg said. Intel said it is reorganizing into five business units from two in an effort to speed new product introductions, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures in NY rose to a seven-week high on expectations cold weather moving into the US Northeast will boost demand for heating fuel, Bloomberg said. John Malone's Liberty Media International and UnitedGlobalCom agreed to merge into a new company called Liberty Global, Bloomberg reported. US Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said there is no evidence of a terrorist plot to disrupt President George Bush's inauguration on Jan. 20, the Washington Post said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, -.50% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.16%

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on a continuation of Friday's bounce. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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