Monday, January 17, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are some important economic reports and a number of significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week. Economic reports include (Tues.)-Empire Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Market Index (Wed.)-Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed's Beige Book (Thur.)-Leading Indicators, Philly Fed. (Fri.)-Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence. The CPI, Housing Starts, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed. and Consumer Confidence all have market-moving potential.

Tues.- Bank of America(BAC), Juniper Networks(JNPR), Motorola(MOT), Yahoo!(YHOO), 3M(MMM), IBM(IBM) Wed.- eBay(EBAY), Qualcomm(QCOM), Symantec(SYMC), General Motors(GM), JP Morgan(JPM), Pfizer(PFE) Thur.- Delta Air Lines(DAL), Intl. Game Technologies(IGT), Xilinx(XLNX), Citigroup(C), Fri.- United Technologies(UTX), Charles Schwab(SCH), Fannie Mae(FNM), General Electric(GE) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also a few other events that have market-moving potential. Tues. - The Fed's Lacker speaking, the Fed's Santomero speaking, the Fed's Stern speaking Wed. – Semi Book-to-Bill, the Fed's Poole speaking, the Fed's Yellen speaking Thur. – the Fed's Bies speaking and the Fed's Stern speaking could also impact trading this week.

Bottom Line: I expect US stocks to finish the week higher on strong earnings/economic reports, a stabilizing US dollar, lower interest rates, short-covering and bargain-hunting. While weakness will likely resurface over the next few weeks, an oversold bounce is likely from current levels. My short-term trading indicators are still giving Sell signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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