Monday, January 03, 2005

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
NAV/1.86
SONC/.25
WAG/.29

Splits
CLF 2-for-1
LUK 3-for-2
MBT 4-for-1
NX 3-for-2

Economic Data
Construction Spending for November estimated up .4% versus 0.0% in October.
ISM Manufacturing for December estimated at 58.5 versus 57.8 in November.
ISM Prices Paid for December estimated at 72.0 versus 74.0 in November.

Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on TXN, SDA, BRK/B, TOL, LEN, CTX, GE, BAC and mixed on PIXR. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on TXN, SCO, MRK, TGT, CME, mixed on CRM and negative on GG. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on HOV, EBAY, SIRI, CME, COCO, EQIX, LYG, WFII, mixed on MSFT, PKZ and negative on GT, AGI, MSO. Barron's had positive comments on ELN, IM and TEX. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MRVL, INTC, NSM, COH, RE, ENH. Goldman raised estimates on GOOG, YHOO and reiterated Outperform. Banc of America cut VSEA and CYMI to Sell. Forbes has 10 tech trends to watch in 2005.

Weekend News
The District of Columbia had few than 200 homicides in 2004 for the first time in nearly two decades, the Washington Post reported. The Post said experts attributed the lower homicide count to an improving economy, waning wars by gangs dealing cocaine, and a rising prison population. Walgreen, CVS Corp. and Rite Aid Corp. and other drugstores are losing some business as more corporations mandate the use of ordering drugs for chronic conditions through the mail, the NY Times reported. US military planes began bringing supplies to Phuket and other beach resorts in southern Thailand hit by the tsunami, as relief workers try to preserve the remains of the dead for identification, the NY Times reported. Rhode Island's health department has approved regulations allowing Canadian pharmacies to operate in the state, the AP reported. Braces, long considered a dental rite of passage for teenagers, are becoming more common among Americans 55 and older, the Chicago Tribune reported today. Lockheed Martin won two contracts from the US Air Force for $716 million to keep working on the F/A-22 stealth fighter-bomber amid media reports that funding for the fighter may be cut back, Reuters reported. US securities firms and investment advisers are looking forward to additional mergers and acquisitions in 2005 as companies feel more confident about the US economy, the NY Times reported. US helicopters began airlifting quake and tsunami survivors from an isolated region on the west coast of Aceh province today, Agence France-Presse reported. Malcolm Bricklin, an automotive entrepreneur, and US investment bank Allen & Co. have signed an agreement with Chery Automobile, owned by the government of eastern China's Anhui province, to import Chinese-built cars into the US, the Detroit News reported. Delta Air Lines is expected to overhaul its ticket prices and policies, including rules on Saturday-night stays, Times magazine reported. The Dept. of Homeland Security has created 18 fugitive squads to track down about 370,000 foreign nationals who never left the US after being ordered deported, the Washington Post reported. Medicare will start covering routine screening for alcoholism this week, the LA Times reported. The Dec. 26 earthquake and tsunami may have only a minor effect on the economies of Asian countries in the region, the NY Times reported. Bill Miller's $16 billion Legg Mason Value Trust beat the S&P 500 for a record 14th straight year after a holiday rally in Amazon.com shares capped a comeback for the fund, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures are falling tonight in NY as mild weather in the US Northeast cut heating oil demand and the New Year weekend passed without a major terrorist attack in an oil-producing country, Bloomberg said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly higher, -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.12%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on falling energy prices, a stabilizing US dollar, more optimism and money managers putting new cash to work. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.

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