Monday, January 31, 2005

Monday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,181.27 +.85%
Dow 10,489.94 +.60%
NASDAQ 2,062.41 +1.31%
Russell 2000 624.02 +1.80%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,627.25 +.95%
S&P Barra Growth 567.53 +.66%
S&P Barra Value 609.50 +1.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.41 +.15%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 753.89 +1.12%
Morgan Stanley Technology 473.66 +1.43%
Transports 3,598.48 +1.48%
Utilities 343.46 +1.15%
Put/Call .68 -11.69%
NYSE Arms .88 -31.78%
Volatility(VIX) 12.82 -3.17%
ISE Sentiment 155.00 -13.41%
US Dollar 83.57 +.11%
CRB 284.75 +.20%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 48.15 -.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 134.20 -.42%
Natural Gas 6.29 -.49%
Heating Oil 134.60 -.16%
Gold 424.20 +.02%
Base Metals 122.86 +.26%
Copper 143.00 -.35%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.13% -.24%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.59%
I-Banks +2.39%
Airlines +2.27%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -.11%
Papers -.12%
Drugs -.46%

After-hours Movers
ARBA -20.68% after missing 1Q estimates.
ISSX -5.06% after beating 4Q estimates and widening 1Q/05 guidance.
OS +6.79% after boosting 4Q estimates on higher plate demand and lower scrap prices.
SRX +4.41% after beating 2Q estimates, raising 3Q/05 guidance.
VLTR -8.12% on profit-taking after beating 4Q estimates.
RNOW -7.95% after meeting 4Q estimates, reiterating 1Q outlook and lowering 05 guidance.
ATRS -5.41% on profit-taking after beating 4Q estimates.

Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote

Afternoon Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on LVS, XOM, RE, DIS and WYNN.

After-hours News
US stocks finished higher today on optimism over the Iraqi election, increased merger activity and short-covering. After the close, Duke Energy, the biggest US utility owner, may begin auctioning its wholesale electricity unit within six weeks, the Power Finance & Risk newsletter said. China will probably expand the band where it lets is currency trade against the dollar by 3% or more this year, the Nikkei Financial Daily reported. Time Warner’s HBO channel sold the rights to “The Sopranos” to A&E Television Networks for a record price of about $195 million, or $2.5 million per episode, Daily Variety reported. Huawei Technologies, China’s top phone-equipment maker, has considered selling its optical and access units to foreign buyers as part of a review, the Financial Times reported. The US dollar had its biggest monthly advance against the euro since May 2001, Bloomberg said. Brazil sold $1.25 billion of 20-year bonds and Mexico’s credit rating was lifted by Standard & Poor’s, underscoring increased confidence in the creditworthiness of Latin America’s two biggest economies, Bloomberg reported. The European Union may hold consultations with the US and Japan over its possible lifting of its arms embargo on China and any subsequent arms sales, the Financial Times reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my internet, retail, computer and RFID longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. The tone of the market improved in the final hour as most sectors rose and the advance/decline line finished near its daily highs. Small-caps, financials and technology outperformed throughout the afternoon. Long-term interest rates fell again today and look to be headed still lower over the next few months. It was disappointing to see oil rise in the face of more stability in Iraq. As well, most measures of investor anxiety fell and volume was lighter. I expect US stocks to continue heading modestly higher in the near-term on increased optimism, more dovish Fed comments and strong earnings reports.

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