- Continuing Claims fell to 2581K versus estimates of 2582K and 2597K prior.
- Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 1, 2005.
- The EIA said crude inventories fell 3.61M barrels last week versus estimates of a 1.5M barrel fall. Gas inventories fell 974,000 barrels versus estimates of a 270,000 barrel decline. Distillate inventories rose 4.07M barrels versus estimates of a 1.5M barrel rise.
BOTTOM LINE: The four-week moving-average fell by 3,500 to 320,500, the lowest level since the week ended March 4. The four-week moving-average of continuing claims was mostly unchanged at 2.603 million. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged from the prior week at 1.9%. A four-week moving-average of jobless claims between 325,000 and 330,000 signals the creation of about 225,000 new jobs a month, according to most economists. Moreover, Monster Worldwide said its index of online help-wanted advertising rose in June to a sixth straight record, reflecting a jump in the number of companies seeking workers in construction, accounting and transportation.
So far, oil isn’t reacting much to the inventory data. The terrible events this morning in London will likely further curtail demand for energy over the intermediate-term. In my opinion, oil is trading on emotion and not fundamentals. Thus, the mania in the energy markets will keep prices elevated until we get closer to the fourth quarter. I still expect a substantial decline in crude beginning sometime over the next few months.
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