Thursday, October 05, 2006

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at Fimat USA, see OPEC cutting output further as crude reaches $48/bbl.
- The yen weakened after Kyodo News reported US and Japanese officials were concerned N. Korea will test a nuclear bomb this weekend.
- A California appeals court said state laws banning same-sex marriage don’t violate the state’s constitution, handing a defeat to San Francisco officials who allowed 4,000 gay couples to marry in 2004.
- Tribune Co.(TRB) ousted the publisher of its biggest newspaper, the LA Times, after he resisted making newsroom changes ordered by his bosses.
- Google(GOOG) will give cash bonuses of up to $3 million to executives that are linked to annual sales and profit goals.
- John Olson, a co-manager of Houston Energy Partners who was skeptical of Enron before the scandal there, says rogue energy trading may have been going on at the collapsed Amaranth hedge fund.
- Crude oil is falling on speculation Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest producer, hasn’t agreed to participate in any output cut by OPEC. “Saudi Arabia seems not to agree on any cutback plan until oil falls below $55,” said Makoto Takeda, an energy analyst at Bansei Securities.
- Gold fell in Asia as oil prices struggled to hold above $60 a barrel and some investors deemed yesterday’s rally in the precious metal overdone.

Business Week:
- Citigroup(C) Chairman and CEO Prince is moving the company toward new purchases.

Kyodo News:
- The US and Japan are concerned North Korea may test a nuclear bomb as early as this weekend, citing Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi. North Korea announced on Oct. 3 it will conduct a nuclear test, prompting calls by the US, South Korea, China and Japan to abandon the plan and return to six-nation talks on dismantling its atomic weapons program.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Downgraded (NFG) to Sell, target $33.

CSFB:
- Reiterated Outperform on (ROST), target $33.
- Reiterated Outperform on (TJX), target $32.
- Reiterated Outperform on (CRM), target $50.

Business Week:
- Shares of Intercontinental Hotels Group(IHG), which operates the most hotel rooms worldwide, may rise on demand for its rooms in China from the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
- Viasys Healthcare(VAS), a maker of ventilators for people with breathing problems that was spun off from Thermo Electron in 2001, could gain on emergency gear sales.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST:
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for September is estimated at 120K versus 128K the prior month.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for September is estimated at -5K versus -11K the prior month.
- The Unemployment Rate for September is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% the prior month.
- Average Hourly Earnings for September are estimated to rise .3% versus a .1% gain in August.

3:00 pm EST:
- Consumer Credit for August is estimated to fall to $5.0B versus $5.5B the prior month.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in metal shares are offsetting losses in financial equities in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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