Job Market Even Stonger Than Previously Thought, Wages Rise 4% Over Last Year, Payroll Growth Decelerates

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for September was 51K versus estimates of 120K and an upwardly revised 188K in August.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for September was -19K versus estimates of -5K and an upwardly revised -7K in August.
- The Unemployment Rate for September fell to 4.6% versus estimates of 4.7% and 4.7% in August.
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BOTTOM LINE: The US economy created 51,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell back to a five-year low, Bloomberg reported. Job growth during the last year was revised 45% higher. 810,000 more jobs were created over the last 12 months than previously thought. This was the largest upward revision since at least 1991 when the labor market began benchmarking numbers. Wage growth over the last year matched a five-year high. The substantial upward revision to job growth over the last year is sending Treasuries lower and the US dollar higher. This shows the economy was even stronger than most realized earlier in the year. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term as companies gain confidence in the sustainability of the current business cycle, optimism continues to grow, consumer spending remains strong, gas prices continue to fall and housing stabilizes at relatively high levels.