Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Stocks Finish Lower on US Political Worries and Profit-taking

Indices
S&P 500 1,367.81 -.74%
DJIA 12,031.42 -.41%
NASDAQ 2,334.35 -1.37%
Russell 2000 752.15 -1.92%
Wilshire 5000 13,673.20 -.86%
S&P Barra Growth 634.64 -.73%
S&P Barra Value 731.06 -.74%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 666.96 -.57%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 847.85 -.83%
Morgan Stanley Technology 546.02 -1.26%
Transports 4,674.75 -1.10%
Utilities 452.65 +.97%
Put/Call .90 -8.16%
NYSE Arms 1.70 +41.17%
Volatility(VIX) 11.51 +3.69%
ISE Sentiment 122.00 +6.09%
US Dollar 85.45 +.15%
CRB 306.35 +.16%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.55 -.31%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.15 +2.40%
Natural Gas 7.75 +2.87%
Heating Oil 164.75 -1.17%
Gold 620.60 +.21%
Base Metals 244.97 -1.09%
Copper 326.30 +.68%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% -.86%

Leading Sectors
Utilities +.97%
Defense -.09%
Tobacco -.10%

Lagging Sectors
Coal -2.24%
I-Banks -2.34%
Alternative Energy -2.44%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Bank of America:
- Rated (MYGN) Buy, target $40.
- Rated (NUVO) Buy, target $26.
- Rated (ARRY) Buy, target $13.
- Rated (KERX) Buy, target $26.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Treasuries gained, driving 10-year notes to their longest rally since 2004, after the Prices Paid component of the ISM Manufacturing Index plunged.
- Morgan Stanley(MS) said it bought a 19% stake in London-based Lansdowne Partners LP, accelerating a push into hedge funds.
- Toyota Motor(TM), the world’s top seller of gasoline-electric autos, may turn its Prius car into a line of vehicles as the company tries to triple annual US sales of hybrids.
- Tyco Intl.(TYC) said its telecommunications unit won a contract to build an undersea fiber-optic system for BP America.
- The President of Newmont Mining(NEM) said US inflation has peaked and that the Fed will cut interest rates next year.

Wall Street Journal:
- Tribune(TRB) may sell off its parts after receiving low bids for the whole company.

Fortune:
- Yahoo!(YHOO) is considering buying Time Warner’s(TWX) AOL unit.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Semi longs, Biotech longs and Medical longs. I added to my (IWM) and (QQQQ) hedges and to my short (BHP) position in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, almost every sector fell and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Today's overall market action was bearish. I suspect today's weakness is mainly the result of significant political uncertainty and profit-taking after one of the best Aug/Sept/Oct market runs in U.S. history. On the positive side, today's volume was only around average levels and my intraday gauges of investor angst finished at elevated levels. The U.S. dollar finished slightly higher despite today's economic data. The 10-year yield finished near session lows, down another 4 basis points to 4.55%, as inflation concerns continue to subside rapidly. I expect stocks to trade mixed-to-lower through week's end. However, I expect another meaningful push higher in the major averages after the election through year-end.

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