Stocks Plunging into Final Hour on Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Fed Rate Hike Worries, Global Growth Fears, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.35 +22.73%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.78 +.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.80 +6.75%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.50 +10.08%

• ISE Sentiment Index 61.0 -40.20%

• Total Put/Call .96 -1.03%

• NYSE Arms .43 -44.32% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.96 +6.06%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.23 +7.44%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.19 +3.23%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 74.33 +4.62%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 271.86 +3.57%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 305.91 +.72%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 +2.25 basis points

• TED Spread 21.75 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 203.0 +3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $95.60/Metric Tonne -.31%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.50 -7.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.40 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -95 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Oligarchs Blacklisted by EU as U.S. Weighs More Measures. The U.S. is considering further punitive measures on Russian business after Europe blacklisted tycoons close to the Kremlin to pressure President Vladimir Putin to halt backing for separatists in east Ukraine. Rising pressure comes as Ukraine laid the blame on rebels for blocking investigators seeking to reach the crash site of Malaysian Air Flight MH17 in past days. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said an international team reached the area today.

• U.S. Could Move to Sanction Russia Derivatives, Short-Term Funds. The U.S. might move to limit derivatives trading and short-term loans with Russian companies if sanctions already imposed fail to sway President Vladimir Putin to end support for rebels in eastern Ukraine. U.S. citizens and businesses are still permitted to trade in outstanding debt of any maturity and new short-term debt and derivatives with sanctioned Russian companies. Restrictions on money-market financing and derivatives could be imposed if tougher penalties are necessary, said a Treasury Department official who asked not to be named because further options are still being discussed.

• Argentine Bonds Tumble After Default as Banks Seek Holdout Deal. Argentina’s dollar bonds sank after the country missed a payment on $13 billion of its debt as JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and other banks sought a deal that would allow the country to resume servicing its securities. A group of international investment banks met with Elliott Management Corp. and other so-called holdout creditors to buy the securities they hold from the country’s 2001 default, according to a bank official familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. The official said talks would continue. Buenos Aires-based newspaper Ambito reported that a deal on the amount was reached, while other issues had yet to be resolved.

• Netanyahu Says Israel Must Destroy Hamas Tunnels in Gaza. Israel won’t sign up to a truce that curtails its ability to destroy tunnels Hamas dug to launch attacks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said today, as the country called up an additional 16,000 reservists. “We are determined to complete this operation, with or without a cease-fire,” Netanyahu said in remarks broadcast by radio before a meeting of the cabinet. “We won’t agree to any proposal that doesn’t let the Israeli army complete this important job.”

• Euro Flows Reveal Shift in Sentiment as Losses Mount: Currencies. The international appetite for euro-zone financial assets that underpinned the local currency the past two years is beginning to erode. While broad data showing real-time flows into and out of the region’s stocks and bonds are hard to find, strategists point to items such as U.S. exchange-traded funds, which pulled $1.1 billion from European assets this month, the first outflow since April 2013. Bonds of Italy and Spain that yielded as much as 7.05 percentage points more than Treasuries two years ago now pay less than their U.S. counterparts, diminishing their appeal. The result is the euro’s biggest monthly loss since February 2013, and Morgan Stanley said this week selling the 18-nation currency remains the surest bet in the developed world.

• Why a French Bank Would Expand in U.S. High-Yield Bond Sales Now. The world’s biggest banks are pouncing on one of the only bright spots in their fixed-income businesses: helping junk-rated companies sell bonds. Case in point is Credit Agricole SA (ACA), which is boosting its U.S. high-yield debt unit by hiring Michael Stiuso, Cindy Cash and Justin Brody in the last several months. The lender has risen to become 12th most-active manager of the debt sales this year, its highest rank ever, up from 17th place in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We have made a conscious decision to develop further our New York sales presence across asset classes, with a focus on U.S. high yield,” Tim Hall, Credit Agricole’s global head of debt capital markets, said in an e-mail. The firm “has made it clear that it is a debt-centric house.”

• Adidas Plunges After Reducing Forecast on Russia, Golf. Adidas AG(ADS) shares fell by a record after the world’s second-largest sporting-goods maker slashed its full-year profit forecast, bursting euphoria around the German company less than a month after its national team’s victory in the World Cup. Adidas said profit this year will miss its forecast by at least 180 million euros ($241 million). The shoemaker and apparel maker scrapped a long-standing growth target for next year, citing a slump in demand for golf supplies in North America combined with turmoil in Russia. The shares tumbled as much as 16 percent in Frankfurt trading, the biggest intraday drop since the company’s 1995 initial public offering.

• Large Banks Enjoy ‘Too-Big-To-Fail Subsidy’ in Crises, GAO Finds. A study by the Government Accountability Office, to be released in full later today, comes after two years of congressional and industry debate over whether large banks continue to get what has come to be known as a too-big-to-fail subsidy despite regulatory changes.

• Ebola Deaths Rise as Quarantines Seek to Limit Disease. The presidents of Sierra Leone and Liberia took drastic actions to control citizen movements in their countries and global health officials promised to send more help to West Africa as the Ebola death toll rose to 729, or 57 more than a week earlier.

• Euro Inflation Slowed to 0.4% in July, Lowest Since 2009. Euro-area inflation (ECCPEST) unexpectedly slowed in July to the weakest in almost five years, underscoring the European Central Bank’s concerns that the economy is too feeble to drive price growth. Inflation was 0.4 percent compared with 0.5 percent in June, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That is the weakest since October 2009 and below a median forecast of 0.5 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 42 economists.

• European Stocks Drop Most in Three Weeks; Adidas Forecast. European stocks declined the most in three weeks as Adidas AG lowered its profit forecast and Banco Espirito Santo SA led a plunge in Portuguese equities. Adidas slumped the most in 15 years as the sporting-goods maker said the crisis in Ukraine will reduce its profit from Russia. Banco Espirito Santo sank 42 percent after making provisions of 4.3 billion euros ($5.7 billion). Afren Plc tumbled 26 percent after suspending senior managers following an investigation into unauthorized payments. Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) added 2.5 percent after beating profit estimates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.3 percent to 335.99 at the close of trading, extending its decline in July to 1.7 percent. The benchmark posted its first back-to-back monthly losses in two years. Portugal’s PSI 20 Index dropped 3.1 percent today as benchmark indexes retreated in every western-European market except Iceland. Germany’s DAX Index slid 1.9 percent and France’s CAC 40 Index slipped 1.5 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index decreased 0.6 percent.

• Mortgage-Bond Price Tumble Signals New Risks in Markets. Prices of a new type of U.S. mortgage bonds are plunging this month, teaching investors a lesson on the risks to markets wrought by the growing constraints on Wall Street banks. The $8.2 billion of risk-sharing securities sold in the last year by government-controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can shift their losses from homeowner defaults to bond buyers. One slice of a deal issued in May traded at 95.7 cents on the dollar yesterday, down from 99.7 cents at the end of last month, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. With JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts failing to see “any fundamental reason” for the tumble, investors from CQS U.K. LLP to Calvert Investment Management Inc. are speculating that the drop is mainly about the growing amount of the debt running into limits created by new regulations on bond dealers’ ability to smooth trading by building up their inventories. “It could be symbolic of what could happen more broadly in a real ‘risk-off’ environment,” Bill Murray, a New York-based money manager at $14 billion hedge-fund firm CQS, said in an interview.

• Orange Juice Falls to Six-Month Low Amid ‘Dismal’ U.S. Demand. Orange-juice futures fell to the lowest since January as Americans are shunning the breakfast drink, driving down prices even as disease ravages groves in Florida, the world’s second-biggest citrus grower. In the four weeks ended July 5, retail sales in U.S., the world’s biggest consumer, fell 8.3 percent from a year earlier to the lowest for the period since 2002, the Florida Department of Citrus said last week, citing Nielsen Co. data. In 2013-2014, world consumption will drop 3.4 percent, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said July 24.

• Consumer Confidence Declines in U.S. to Lowest Since June. Confidence among U.S. consumers retreated last week to an almost two-month low as limited wage growth chipped away at perceptions about personal finances. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 36.3 in the period ended July 27, the lowest June 8, from 37.6 the week before. A gauge of households’ financial well-being dropped by the most since mid-May.

• Colorado Overwhelmed by Immigrant License Requests. Undocumented immigrants in Colorado may face waits of a year or more to obtain drivers licenses under a program starting tomorrow, as thousands seeking to apply overwhelm an online scheduling system and available staff. When the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles started accepting appointments from foreign nationals online July 1, it received as many as 107,500 page views an hour, crashing the system for several days. The DMV expects to process 9,551 applicants through September.

• Exxon(XOM) Falls After Reporting Lowest Output in Five Years. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) fell after reporting oil and natural gas production declined to the lowest level in almost five years, raising the stakes as it seeks to pursue crude deposits in Russia.

CNBC: 

• Five reasons why the market is seeing red.

• These factors could exacerbate selloff: Cashin. (video)

• US banks braced for large deposit outflows. US banks are steeling themselves for the possibility of losing as much as $1tn in deposits as the Federal Reserve reverses its emergency economic policies and raises interest rates.

• Why the real bubble may be confidence in the Fed. (video)

• Wells Fargo’s(WFC) Adams: Brace for stocks to drop another 10%. (video)

ZeroHedge: 

• Substituting Debt For Income Is Not Success - It's Failure On An Epic Scale.

• Fitch Warns High-Yield Default Rate Set To Jump. (graph)

• CIA Admits Spying On Senate Computers.

• Russia And India Begin Negotations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar.

• Chicago PMI Collapses To 13-Month Lows, Biggest Miss On Record. (graph)

• Employment Costs Surge Most In 6 Years As Initial Claims Miss. (graph)

• NIRP DERP: A Chart Of What Europe Economy Really Looks Like. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Here Are 8 Things That Are Crashing Today. 

• Hamas' Armed Wing Numbers In The Tens Of Thousands, And It's Ready For A Long Conflict.

Reuters:

• BES senior bonds sink on bail-in fears. The massive 3.6bn loss at Banco Espirito Santo has fuelled fears that senior bondholders may also be at risk from the raft of problems at the troubled Portuguese bank.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.11%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) HMOs -3.04% 2) Alt Energy -2.55% 3) Networking -2.54%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• EHTH, ASGN, PHK, AVG, TTEK, ARCB, RRTS, TSN, ATEN, YUM, LLL, SOXX, GSJK, ALB, FEIC, MTW, ANIK, VCYT, CODE, GRFS, PNR, UAN, CRR, HTWR, RGR, GMT, UPL, EGN, PTEN, VNR, CNL, ABMD, CHTR, LGCY, TQNT, VNTV, SFY, KBR, KRFT, SHOO, GNW, MU, K, MOH, HP, ZLTQ, ULTI, RFMD, MUR, KS, MAA, RYL, GEVA, PNR, ALKS, CODE, CJES, CRR, TASR, SWC, PVA, BZH, MINI, PES, DDD, OCN, YELP and MDAS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLE 2) KBH 3) CMI 4) EWT 5) OIH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LLL 2) NKE 3) MET 4) DDD 5) YUM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.35%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Tobacco -1.0% 2) REITs -1.02% 3) Utilities -1.11%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• JRN, OTEX, LPSN, TSRA, VPRT, TKMR, SNE, CNW, LRCX, BG, BMRN, WWE, SSP, DRII, NEWM, SCI, ALL, AVP and MPC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MTW 2) RMD 3) RMBS 4) WTW 5) FAZ
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ENDP 2) AMRN 3) TD 4) AMT 5) HSP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• EU Blacklists Russian Oligarchs to Pressure Putin. Assets of Russian oligarchs Arkady Rotenberg and Yury Kovalchuk were frozen by the European Union in its effort to pressure President Vladimir Putin to stop supporting rebels in eastern Ukraine. Rotenberg, who helps control SMP Bank and InvestCapitalBank OAO, and Kovalchuk, the biggest shareholder in OAO Bank Rossiya, were among eight people that the EU added yesterday to its blacklist of individuals and organizations being punished for the Ukrainian unrest. Three entities -- Russian National Commercial Bank, weapons maker Almaz-Antey and airline Dobrolet -- also were added, according to the EU’s Official Journal. The move marks the bloc’s first strike against business figures described by European leaders as Putin’s “cronies,” and it aligns EU policy more with that of the U.S.

• Samsung Profit Misses Estimates on Phone Slowdown. Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) posted second-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates on increased marketing for its cheaper smartphones as it tries to fend off competition from Apple Inc. and Chinese producers. Net income, excluding minority interests, was 6.18 trillion won ($6 billion) in the three months ended June, the Suwon, South Korea-based company said in a filing today. That compares with the 6.83 trillion-won average of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The shares fell.

• Asian Stocks Poised for Third Monthly Gain After U.S. GDP. Asian stocks rose, with the regional index poised to cap a third monthly gain, as the U.S. economy grew faster than forecast and Federal Reserve comments on the jobs market added to the case for keeping interest rates low. Mitsubishi Motors Corp. gained 3.3 percent in Tokyo after the carmaker posted profit that beat analyst estimates. Casio Computer Co. jumped 9 percent after the Japanese electronics manufacturer raised its earnings forecasts for the first half. Samsung Electronics Co. fell 2.1 percent in Seoul after the world’s biggest maker of smartphones posted net income that fell short of expectations amid increased competition from Apple Inc. and Chinese producers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.2 percent to 149.78 as of 9:25 a.m. in Tokyo, with almost three stocks rising for each that fell.

• Investment Bank Job Cuts Loom as Cost Drop Trails Revenue. The largest global investment banks face further cost reductions, like the job cuts JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) began this month, after a drop in first-half expenses failed to match a decline in revenue. Pretax profit at the banking and trading units at seven of the nine largest firms fell in the first six months as costs for the group decreased less than 1 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue dropped 5 percent, driven by the worst first-half trading results since the financial crisis.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Growth Rebound Stokes Fed Debate. Economy Bounces Back After Weak Start to Year, but Central Bank Signals Patience as Questions Linger. Federal Reserve officials delivered a modestly more upbeat assessment of the economy Wednesday amid a second-quarter growth rebound and deepening debate inside the central bank about when to start raising interest rates. U.S. gross domestic product, a broad measure of the nation's output of goods and services, advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, a...

• U.S. Oil Exports Ready to Sail. Tanker of Texas Oil Heading to South Korea in First Sale Since 1970s Embargo. 

• GOP Says Lerner Emails Show Bias Against Conservatives. Rep. Camp Calls For 'Aggressive' Investigation or Special Counsel of Former IRS Official. 

• Winds of War, Again. One wishes Barack Obama and John Kerry more luck in Ukraine and the Middle East than Neville Chamberlain had in Munich. 

Fox News: 

• Republican report alleges ‘billionaire’s club’ funding environmental causes through ‘shady’ network. An “elite” group of liberal “millionaires and billionaires” is pumping money into an elaborate network of environmental groups to influence EPA policies, even using “shady” donations from a foreign company to fund their efforts, according to a lengthy report by Senate Republicans.

• EXCLUSIVE: Report reveals ‘disturbing trend’ of brazen attacks against border security by gangs, drug and human traffickers. A game warden hit in the head with a rock while trying to seize a raft. Police officers wounded in an hours-long standoff with a gang member wanted for murder. Criminals spewing obscenities and death threats at local cops before asking for – and receiving – medical treatment. And that was just last week.

CNBC:

• Whole Foods(WFM) shares drop on weak guidance, sales. Whole Foods Market reported earnings that beat analysts' expectations on Wednesday, but shares plunged as quarterly revenue and comparable store sales trailed Wall Street estimates.

Zero Hedge: 

• Argentina Defaults.

• Portuguese Regulator Bans Short-Selling After Banco Espirito Santo Unveils Massive $5 Billion Loss.

• 3 Charts.

• Obama Sued: House Authorizes Lawsuit Against President With 225-201 Vote.

• Foreign Secretary Warns Russian Sanctions "Will Hit UK Economy".

• Thank You Obamacare - California Health Insurance Costs Spike Up To 88% In 2014.

• Why The 10Y Yield Is Heading To 1.5% In 1 Simple Chart. (graph)

• Ebola Epidemic Update: US Citizen Dies In Nigeria, Virus Poses Threat To Britain, Liberia Declares State Of Emergency.

Business Insider:

• The Trigger Points For World War III Are In Place.

• Shocking Photos Show How Polluted China's Water Has Become.

Reuters:

• Akamai Tech(AKAM) falls short of World Cup dreams, shares slip. Akamai Technologies Inc, which helps companies deliver internet content, reported a 26 percent rise in quarterly revenue, falling short of investor hopes that it would exceed its own forecast due to heavy World Cup traffic. 

• Yelp's(YELP) business account growth falls short of expectations. Yelp Inc, the operator of consumer review website Yelp.com, reported its first quarterly profit as a public company, shrugging of analyst forecasts of a loss as small business customers spent more on advertising.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

Telegraph: 

• Global QE ends as China opens second front in bond tapering. China's central bank, and others, have become "major players on world equity markets", effectively fuelling stock bubbles in much the same way they previously fuelled credit bubbles. "There are major shifts going on global capital markets. People have been lulled into a false sense of security by low volatility and they haven't paid attention. We're not seeing any risk aversion in financial markets," he said.

Evening Recommendations
Susquehanna:

• Rated (LULU) Positive, target $49.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.5 -.25 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 71.0 -.5 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.07%.

• S&P 500 futures -.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  -.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (RYL)/.68

• (CL)/.73

• (H)/.45

• (ADP)/.63

• (BZH)/.22

• (CME)/.79

• (AVP)/.21

• (MA)/.77

• (STRA)/1.26

• (MCK)/2.33

• (CI)/1.84

• (BDX)/1.68

• (BG)/1.37

• (COP)/1.61

• (ITT)/.52

• (MOS)/.74

• (APA)/1.64

• (K)/1.02

• (XOM)/1.86

• (PPS)/.65

• (TRLA)/-.16

• (JLL)/1.37

• (MHK)/2.20

• (LNKD)/.39

• (SPF)/.13

• (FLR)/.99

• (EXPE)/.76

• (MCHP)/.67

• (TSLA)/.04

• (DDD)/.18

• (GPRO)/.07

Economic Releases
7:30 am EST

• The Challenger Job Cuts report for July.

8:30 am EST

• The 2Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in 1Q. 

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 300K versus 284K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2492K versus 2500K prior.

9:00 am EST

• ISM Milwaukee for July is estimated to rise to 61.0 versus 60.57 in June.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for July is estimated at 63.0 versus 62.6 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI/Unemployment reports, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, RBC Consumer Outlook Index, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (KORS) annual meeting and the (MLHR) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Rate Hike Worries, Russia-Ukraine/Mideast Tensions, Rising Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Homebuilding/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.49 +1.66%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.73 +.55%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.37 +4.43%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.16 -2.63%

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -6.60%

• Total Put/Call .99 +19.28%

• NYSE Arms .71 -46.58% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.41 +.23%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.0 -1.10%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.09 +.92%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 70.85 -1.01%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 262.32 +1.99%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 303.72 +1.27%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 20.50 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.25 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 200.0 +8.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $95.90/Metric Tonne +.63%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.20 +12.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.20 -1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +104 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Russia May Aid Sanctioned Banks as MH17 Probe Stymied. Russia’s central bank said it’s ready to help lenders targeted by the U.S. and Europe in their latest round of sanctions, as Dutch experts again abandoned an attempt to visit the crash site of Malaysian Air Flight 17. European Union governments agreed yesterday on their most sweeping sanctions against Russia to date, barring state-owned banks from selling shares or bonds in Europe, restricting the export of equipment to modernize the oil industry and barring the sale of technology with military uses. The sanctions are an attempt to get President Vladimir Putin to back down in Ukraine.

• Sanctions Fallout Seen Worsening as Russia Curve Inverts. Bond investors are signaling the deepest concern for Russia’s economy in at least two years as the U.S. and European Union toughen sanctions because of the crisis with Ukraine. Russia’s five-year ruble notes yielded more than 10-year debt this week for the first time since June 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Government bonds headed for their worst monthly losses since May 2009, while the Finance Ministry scrapped its weekly debt auction yesterday, the first back-to-back cancellations since April. Bonds risk extending the worst performance in emerging markets as harsher penalties over Russia’s role in the fighting in eastern Ukraine amid rising interest rates threaten to drive the economy into a recession. The inverted yield curve is signaling investors are expecting relatively high rates in the short term, a headwind for growth, said Fedor Bizikov at GHP Group in Moscow. 

• Twin Strikes Claim 37 Lives in Gaza as Israel War Widens. Twin strikes on a United Nations school and the main public market in Gaza City claimed the lives of 37 people, Palestinians said, as Israel expanded its three-week-old offensive in the territory. The UN Relief and Works Agency accused Israel of violating international law with the attack on the school, which it said was sheltering 3,300 people who had sought refuge there from the fighting. The Israeli army said troops were responding to fire launched at them from the vicinity. It also said it was looking into the report of an air strike on the market. 

• European Stocks Fall as Earnings Misses Offset U.S. GDP. European stocks fell as worse-than-forecast earnings from companies including Schneider Electric SE and Holcim Ltd. outweighed a better-than-expected U.S. growth report, while the U.S. joined Europe in imposing new sanctions on Russia for its role in the insurgency in Ukraine. Schneider declined the most in more than two years after first-half adjusted earnings missed analysts’ estimates. Holcim Ltd. lost the most since November 2011 after the cement maker posted lower-than-expected profit because of weak emerging-market currencies. Barclays Plc advanced 4.2 percent after posting a return to profit for the second quarter. PSA Peugeot Citroen rallied the most in five months after reporting its first half-yearly profit since 2011. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.5 percent to 340.44 at the close of trading.

• Gross Says Investors Should Say ‘Good Evening’ to Asset Gains. Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross said investors should say “good evening” to the prospect of future capital gains in asset markets as interest rates are set to rise while the economy grows at a slow pace. “The global economy is left to depend on economic growth for further advances and it is growth that is now and has recently been historically deficient,” the manager of the world’s biggest bond fund wrote in a commentary on Newport Beach, California-based Pimco’s website. “As yields have bottomed and are now expected by the markets to gradually rise, it’s down to growth, and growth is a question mark.”

• ARMs Race Leaves Yellen Able to Raise Before Carney. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen still may beat Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to the punch bowl. While investors bet the U.K. central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate as soon as the end of this year, with its U.S. counterpart following six months later, economists at London-based Fathom Consulting aren’t so sure. They “would not be surprised” if monetary policy is tightened first in the U.S., satisfying former Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin’s edict that the job of the Fed is “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.”

• Bank of America’s(BAC) Countrywide Ordered to Pay $1.3 Billion.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Ugly Tide Washing Across Europe. The 'Gaza generation' seems worried about Arab deaths only when Jews are involved.

MarketWatch.com:

• How much did subprime loans fuel the GDP boom? (graph)

CNBC:

• Fed tapers another $10 billion. (video) A second-quarter economic rebound did nothing to change the outlook of the Federal Reserve, which stayed the course Wednesday with ultra-easy monetary policy. While the U.S. central bank voted to cut its monthly bond-buying program another $10 billion, it left its short-term interest rate target near zero and expressed only tepid encouragement about growth. 

• Here's what changed in new Fed statement.

• Bubble watch? It's that kind of party.

ZeroHedge: 

• French Housing "In Total Meltdown", "Current Figures Are Disastrous".

• Treasury Yields Rise Most In 9 Months, Weak 7 Year Auction Does Not Help. (graph)

• "US Will Feel Tangible Losses," Russia Prepares To Unleash Retaliatory Trade Wars.

• Complacency Is Sowing The Seeds Of The Next Euro-Zone Crisis. (graph)

• GDP Deja Vu Stunner: Over Half Of US Growth In The Past Year Is From Inventory Accumulation. (graph)

• Portugal Plunges To 9-Month Lows, Europe's VIX At 3-Month Highs. (graph)

• Six Current Economic Myths And Realities.

• The Fed's Failure Complicates Its Endgame.

• Q2 GDP Surges 4%, Beats Estimates Driven By Inventories, Fixed Investment Spike; Historical Data Revised. (graph)

• ADP Tumbles From June Exuberance, Misses 3rd Of Last 4 Months. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• GREENSPAN: A 'Significant' Market Correction Has To Come.

• REPORT: Snapchat In Talks To Raise Funding At A $10 Billion Valuation.

Re/code:

• Exclusive Interview: Best Buy CEO Says Tablet Sales Are “Crashing,” Hope for PCs. Re/code has landed in Minneapolis to talk to the folks at Best Buy — the last standing nationwide big-box, bricks-and-mortar consumer electronics retailer, with over 1,000 main stores and hundreds of smaller mobile device stores.

Telegraph:

• Europe's bond yields lowest since 15th century Genoa on deflation, Russia risk. German, French and Dutch yields have been sliding for months as the eurozone recovery wilts and several countries flirt with recession.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.42%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) HMOs -2.32% 2) Utilities -1.66% 3) Homebuilders -1.22%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BWLD, DWA, DEST, DORM, GRMN, NTRI, MGAM, MMSI, RBC, RGR, MW, HURN, BGFV, GNW, ROK, UIHC, ETN, IPGP, ACH, IACI, TOT, LFUS, CARA, CHMT, WIN, AET, THRM, CRS, VNR, CVD, AFL, HW, LGCY, NFX, HUM, IPGP, MMSI and GT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GNW 2) XLP 3) BWLD 4) AKAM 5) XLI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GM 2) LVLT 3) ROK 4) KORS 5) ETN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.27%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +.95% 2) Oil Tankers +.74% 3) Banks +.49%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ZLTQ, ASML, AEGR, TWTR, RUBI, YPF, PAM, X, BFR, PNRA, SODA, EXAM, TASR, GGAL, EW, ICLR, RNG, XPO, SRPT, NUVA, HPY, REGN, YELP, HSP, TMH, AMGN, SM, PBI, ARWR and SEE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BRCM 2) EA 3) PNRA 4) OREX 5) AEGR
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TWTR 2) AMGN 3) EW 4) YELP 5) NFLX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Putin Jeopardizes Russian Firms’ Access to $600 Billion. Escalating European Union and U.S. sanctions jeopardize access to funding for Russian companies, threatening to cut them off from international capital markets that have provided at least $600 billion in debt and equity financing since the country emerged from its 1998 default. Russian businesses have about $165 billion in dollar- and European-currency denominated bonds and more than $100 billion in offshore syndicated loans currently outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They’ve also raised more than $40 billion selling American and global depositary receipts abroad over the past 15 years. Banks based in China, which remains friendly with President Vladimir Putin’s government, won’t be able to fill the breach, said Ian Hague, founding partner of New York-based Firebird Management LLC.

• Siemens to BP Prepare for Downward Russia Business Spiral. BP Plc (BP/), Siemens AG (SIE) and Renault SA (RNO) are among European companies preparing for a downward turn in their Russian business following the European Union’s decision to impose its widest-ranging sanctions yet over President Vladimir Putin’s involvement in eastern Ukraine. 

• Hong Kong, Singapore Popping Housing Bubbles London Can’t Handle. Take a look at the world’s dizzying surges in the price of housing for 12 months at the end of June: London, up 20 percent. Manhattan, 18 percent. Sydney, 15.4 percent. Then there are Singapore and Hong Kong: down 3.7 percent and 0.6 percent.

• Nomura Profit Fall Signals End of Brokers’ Abenomics Boom. Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604)’s lowest profit in seven quarters signals the boost from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic stimulus policies for Japanese brokerages is over. Shares of Japan’s largest securities firm sank the most in almost three weeks after the company yesterday posted a 70 percent drop in net income to 19.9 billion yen ($195 million) in the three months ended June, missing analysts’ estimates for 26 billion yen. Smaller Daiwa Securities Group Inc. (8601) also reported the second straight decrease in quarterly profit.

• Asian Stocks Rise, Extending Six-Year High Ahead of Fed. Asian stocks rose for a fourth day, with the regional benchmark index extending a six-year high, before the Federal Reserve updates markets on monetary policy today and as the U.S. and European Union strengthened sanctions against Russia. Honda Motor Co. climbed 3.3 percent in Tokyo after the carmaker raised its profit forecast to the highest in seven years. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. gained 1.5 percent after saying it now owns 97.5 percent of Wing Hang Bank Ltd., allowing the Singapore lender to take its Hong Kong target private. Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. tumbled 8 percent after South Korea’s biggest shipbuilder reported a wider-than-expected second-quarter loss. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent to 149.92 as of 9:53 a.m. in Hong Kong, with eight of its 10 industry groups rising.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Europe, U.S. Significantly Expand Sanctions Against Russian Economy. Many Western Officials Don't Expect Putin to Withdraw Support of Pro-Russia Rebels in Ukraine. The U.S. and the European Union adopted sweeping economic sanctions against Russia on Tuesday to punish Moscow's unbending stance in the Ukraine conflict. The question for the West now is whether the move will make Russian President Vladimir Putin more cooperative or prompt him to dig in. The trade and investment restrictions that EU governments, after much agonizing, agreed upon mark a major escalation of sanctions against...
  

• Israel Bombards Hamas Symbols, Power Plant in Gaza. Aims to Force Islamist Group to Accept Cease-fire Demand to Disarm. Israeli forces pounded Hamas symbols of control and Gaza's only power plant in one of the heaviest bombardments in the three-week conflict, trying to raise pressure on the Islamist group to accept Israel's terms for a cease-fire. A strike early Tuesday engulfed the power plant in flames, forcing it to shut down and leaving many of the Palestinian territory's 1.8 million people without electricity. To Gazans, the attack on such a vital lifeline seemed aimed at weakening Palestinian support for the extended conflict both sides say they are ready to fight.

• Obama Weighs Fewer Deportations of Illegal Immigrants Living in U.S. Movement Toward Broad Steps, Including Work Permits, Follows Demise of Legislation.

• Liberals Love the 'One Percent'. The left has a strange affection for Federal Reserve policy that has turbocharged inequality. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said the central bank's goal is "to help Main Street not Wall Street," and many liberal commentators seem convinced that she is advancing that goal. But talk to anyone on Wall Street. If they are being frank, they'll admit that the Fed's loose monetary policy has been one of the biggest contributors to their returns over the past five years. Unwittingly, it seems, liberals who support the Fed are defending policies that boost the wealth of the wealthy but do nothing to reduce...

MarketWatch.com:

• Amgen(AMGN) plans to cut up to 2,900 jobs.

• UPS(UPS) shares deliver a Dow Theory warning for stocks. The transport sector is taking another beating Tuesday, this time led by a selloff in United Parcel Service shares. Based on one of the basic premises of the century-old Dow Theory of market analysis, that could bode badly for the broader market.

• Breadth divergence is a troubling sign for the stock market. Commentary: Breadth and put-call ratios both bearish.

• Russian markets’ fall could be just ‘tip of the iceberg’. Russia’s reaction to another round of sanctions by the United States and — at long last — the European Union could spell trouble for investors in Russian markets, analysts said Tuesday.

CNBC:

• New sanctions for Russia—here's where they'll hurt.

• Twitter(TWTR) posts earnings of 2 cents per share, tops estimates; Stock surges. (video)

Zero Hedge: 

• "Shocked" White House Slams "Fabrication" After Israel TV Leaks Damning Transcript Of Obama-Netanyahu Phone Call.

• Jim Grant: "Gold Is The Ultimate Inoculation Against Harebrained Central Bankers".

• The New York Times' Revenue Since Hiring Paul Krugman. (graph)

• Japanese Industrial Production Collapses At Fastest Rate Since 2011 Tsunami. (graph)

• Italian Police Grab $150 Million Assets From Nomura For Defrauding Government.

• Chinese 'Fake' Trade Data Remains "A Bit Of A Mystery" Despite Clean-Up Efforts. (graph)

Business Insider:

• FOMC Preview: Here's What To Expect From The Meeting.

Reuters:

• AmEx(AXP) profit rises 9 pct as card holders spend more. American Express Co reported a 9 percent rise in second-quarter profit as more customers used its credit cards in a recovering U.S. economy. Card member spending rose 9 percent globally to $258 billion, after adjusting for foreign currency, compared to 7 percent growth in the preceding quarter and 8 percent growth in the second quarter last year.

• Panera(PNRA) quarterly profit down as it works to speed up service. Panera Bread Co on Tuesday reported a 4 percent decline in quarterly profit as it works to speed up service at its popular bakery cafes.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.75 +1.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 71.5 +.75 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures -.08%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ENR)/1.54

• (GT)/.79

• (VLO)/1.20

• (CSL)/.74

• (ADT)/.47

• (PBI)/.46

• (HES)/1.18

• (WLP)/2.26

• (HUM)/2.18

• (SPW)/1.19

• (AMT)/1.06

• (S)/-.02

• (PSX)/1.69

• (KFT)/.82

• (ALL)/.65

• (LRCX)/1.23

• (WMB)/.22

• (MET)/1.41

• (YELP)/-.03

• (WDC)/1.73

• (IPI)/.01

• (TSO)/1.82

• (AKAM)/.55

• (WFM)/.39

• (REV)/.46

• (IACI)/.79

• (LL)/.63

Economic Releases
8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for July is estimated at 230K versus 281K in June.

8:30 am EST

• Advance 2Q GDP is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a -2.9% drop in 1Q.

• Advance 2Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +1.0% gain in 1Q.

• Advance 2Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.8% versus a +1.3% gain in 1Q.

• Advance 2Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +1.2% gain in 1Q.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -800,000 barrels versus a -3,969,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +900,000 barrels versus a +3,379,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,370,000 barrels versus a +1,636,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.2% versus unch. the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at .25%.

• Fed QE3 Pace for July is estimated to fall to $25B versus $35B in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Industrial Confidence data, $29B 7Y T-Note auction, Argentina default deadline and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.