Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Putin Jeopardizes Russian Firms’ Access to $600 Billion. Escalating European Union and U.S. sanctions jeopardize access to funding for Russian companies, threatening to cut them off from international capital markets that have provided at least $600 billion in debt and equity financing since the country emerged from its 1998 default. Russian businesses have about $165 billion in dollar- and European-currency denominated bonds and more than $100 billion in offshore syndicated loans currently outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They’ve also raised more than $40 billion selling American and global depositary receipts abroad over the past 15 years. Banks based in China, which remains friendly with President Vladimir Putin’s government, won’t be able to fill the breach, said Ian Hague, founding partner of New York-based Firebird Management LLC.

• Siemens to BP Prepare for Downward Russia Business Spiral. BP Plc (BP/), Siemens AG (SIE) and Renault SA (RNO) are among European companies preparing for a downward turn in their Russian business following the European Union’s decision to impose its widest-ranging sanctions yet over President Vladimir Putin’s involvement in eastern Ukraine. 

• Hong Kong, Singapore Popping Housing Bubbles London Can’t Handle. Take a look at the world’s dizzying surges in the price of housing for 12 months at the end of June: London, up 20 percent. Manhattan, 18 percent. Sydney, 15.4 percent. Then there are Singapore and Hong Kong: down 3.7 percent and 0.6 percent.

• Nomura Profit Fall Signals End of Brokers’ Abenomics Boom. Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604)’s lowest profit in seven quarters signals the boost from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic stimulus policies for Japanese brokerages is over. Shares of Japan’s largest securities firm sank the most in almost three weeks after the company yesterday posted a 70 percent drop in net income to 19.9 billion yen ($195 million) in the three months ended June, missing analysts’ estimates for 26 billion yen. Smaller Daiwa Securities Group Inc. (8601) also reported the second straight decrease in quarterly profit.

• Asian Stocks Rise, Extending Six-Year High Ahead of Fed. Asian stocks rose for a fourth day, with the regional benchmark index extending a six-year high, before the Federal Reserve updates markets on monetary policy today and as the U.S. and European Union strengthened sanctions against Russia. Honda Motor Co. climbed 3.3 percent in Tokyo after the carmaker raised its profit forecast to the highest in seven years. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. gained 1.5 percent after saying it now owns 97.5 percent of Wing Hang Bank Ltd., allowing the Singapore lender to take its Hong Kong target private. Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. tumbled 8 percent after South Korea’s biggest shipbuilder reported a wider-than-expected second-quarter loss. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent to 149.92 as of 9:53 a.m. in Hong Kong, with eight of its 10 industry groups rising.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Europe, U.S. Significantly Expand Sanctions Against Russian Economy. Many Western Officials Don't Expect Putin to Withdraw Support of Pro-Russia Rebels in Ukraine. The U.S. and the European Union adopted sweeping economic sanctions against Russia on Tuesday to punish Moscow's unbending stance in the Ukraine conflict. The question for the West now is whether the move will make Russian President Vladimir Putin more cooperative or prompt him to dig in. The trade and investment restrictions that EU governments, after much agonizing, agreed upon mark a major escalation of sanctions against...
  

• Israel Bombards Hamas Symbols, Power Plant in Gaza. Aims to Force Islamist Group to Accept Cease-fire Demand to Disarm. Israeli forces pounded Hamas symbols of control and Gaza's only power plant in one of the heaviest bombardments in the three-week conflict, trying to raise pressure on the Islamist group to accept Israel's terms for a cease-fire. A strike early Tuesday engulfed the power plant in flames, forcing it to shut down and leaving many of the Palestinian territory's 1.8 million people without electricity. To Gazans, the attack on such a vital lifeline seemed aimed at weakening Palestinian support for the extended conflict both sides say they are ready to fight.

• Obama Weighs Fewer Deportations of Illegal Immigrants Living in U.S. Movement Toward Broad Steps, Including Work Permits, Follows Demise of Legislation.

• Liberals Love the 'One Percent'. The left has a strange affection for Federal Reserve policy that has turbocharged inequality. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said the central bank's goal is "to help Main Street not Wall Street," and many liberal commentators seem convinced that she is advancing that goal. But talk to anyone on Wall Street. If they are being frank, they'll admit that the Fed's loose monetary policy has been one of the biggest contributors to their returns over the past five years. Unwittingly, it seems, liberals who support the Fed are defending policies that boost the wealth of the wealthy but do nothing to reduce...

MarketWatch.com:

• Amgen(AMGN) plans to cut up to 2,900 jobs.

• UPS(UPS) shares deliver a Dow Theory warning for stocks. The transport sector is taking another beating Tuesday, this time led by a selloff in United Parcel Service shares. Based on one of the basic premises of the century-old Dow Theory of market analysis, that could bode badly for the broader market.

• Breadth divergence is a troubling sign for the stock market. Commentary: Breadth and put-call ratios both bearish.

• Russian markets’ fall could be just ‘tip of the iceberg’. Russia’s reaction to another round of sanctions by the United States and — at long last — the European Union could spell trouble for investors in Russian markets, analysts said Tuesday.

CNBC:

• New sanctions for Russia—here's where they'll hurt.

• Twitter(TWTR) posts earnings of 2 cents per share, tops estimates; Stock surges. (video)

Zero Hedge: 

• "Shocked" White House Slams "Fabrication" After Israel TV Leaks Damning Transcript Of Obama-Netanyahu Phone Call.

• Jim Grant: "Gold Is The Ultimate Inoculation Against Harebrained Central Bankers".

• The New York Times' Revenue Since Hiring Paul Krugman. (graph)

• Japanese Industrial Production Collapses At Fastest Rate Since 2011 Tsunami. (graph)

• Italian Police Grab $150 Million Assets From Nomura For Defrauding Government.

• Chinese 'Fake' Trade Data Remains "A Bit Of A Mystery" Despite Clean-Up Efforts. (graph)

Business Insider:

• FOMC Preview: Here's What To Expect From The Meeting.

Reuters:

• AmEx(AXP) profit rises 9 pct as card holders spend more. American Express Co reported a 9 percent rise in second-quarter profit as more customers used its credit cards in a recovering U.S. economy. Card member spending rose 9 percent globally to $258 billion, after adjusting for foreign currency, compared to 7 percent growth in the preceding quarter and 8 percent growth in the second quarter last year.

• Panera(PNRA) quarterly profit down as it works to speed up service. Panera Bread Co on Tuesday reported a 4 percent decline in quarterly profit as it works to speed up service at its popular bakery cafes.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.75 +1.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 71.5 +.75 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures -.08%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ENR)/1.54

• (GT)/.79

• (VLO)/1.20

• (CSL)/.74

• (ADT)/.47

• (PBI)/.46

• (HES)/1.18

• (WLP)/2.26

• (HUM)/2.18

• (SPW)/1.19

• (AMT)/1.06

• (S)/-.02

• (PSX)/1.69

• (KFT)/.82

• (ALL)/.65

• (LRCX)/1.23

• (WMB)/.22

• (MET)/1.41

• (YELP)/-.03

• (WDC)/1.73

• (IPI)/.01

• (TSO)/1.82

• (AKAM)/.55

• (WFM)/.39

• (REV)/.46

• (IACI)/.79

• (LL)/.63

Economic Releases
8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for July is estimated at 230K versus 281K in June.

8:30 am EST

• Advance 2Q GDP is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a -2.9% drop in 1Q.

• Advance 2Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +1.0% gain in 1Q.

• Advance 2Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.8% versus a +1.3% gain in 1Q.

• Advance 2Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +1.2% gain in 1Q.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -800,000 barrels versus a -3,969,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +900,000 barrels versus a +3,379,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,370,000 barrels versus a +1,636,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.2% versus unch. the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at .25%.

• Fed QE3 Pace for July is estimated to fall to $25B versus $35B in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Industrial Confidence data, $29B 7Y T-Note auction, Argentina default deadline and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.