Thursday, July 10, 2014

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Gaza Rockets Threaten Nuclear Plant as Israel Vows Force. Palestinian militants extended their rocket barrage against Israel to threaten its Dimona nuclear plant as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to ratchet up the military assault on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian death toll neared 70 since July 8 from Israeli air raids and a firefight with Palestinian commandos who infiltrated across Gaza’s border through the Mediterranean Sea.Netanyahu hinted at a possibleground incursion to stop the hail of more than 300 rockets from the coastal territory. 
  • Ukraine Pushes Offensive as Russia Says Rebels Seek Talks. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko dismissed Russia’s claim that rebels want peace talks as he pressed on with an offensive to regain territory near the frontier, where skirmishes have left hundreds dead. Poroshenko toldFrench President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a joint phone call yesterday that Ukraine is ready for dialogue with pro-Russian separatists and international observers but “the other side” has shown no willingness, according to his website. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier the militias in eastern Ukraine are ready for talks, but “ultimatums and pre-conditions” must not stand in the way of peace efforts.
  • Asia Stocks Rise Before China Data as Oil Slumps 10th Day. Asian stocks climbed before Chinese trade data, while the U.S. oil benchmark-contract slipped toward its longest-ever stretch of declines amid rising supplies and sagging consumption. Indonesia’s rupiah jumped. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent by 10:36 a.m. in Tokyo after dropping by the most in two months yesterday. West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery lost 0.3 percent to $102.02 a barrel, its 10th declining day and the longest slump since trading began in 1983. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.3 percent after the biggest-ever drop in machinery orders.
  • Fed’s Bullard Says Unemployment Drop to Push Inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said a surprisingly fast drop in unemployment will fuel inflation, bolstering his case for an interest-rate increase early next year. “I think we are going to overshoot here on inflation,” Bullard said today in a telephone interview from St. Louis. He predicted an inflation rate of 2.4 percent at the end of 2015, “well above” the Fed’s 2 percent target.
  • Fed Moves Closer to Choosing Main Stimulus-Exit Tool. Federal Reserve officials moved closer to deciding on the main tool they will use to tighten monetary policy when the time comes, most likely next year. Most participants at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting agreed that the interest rate on excess reserves banks keep on deposit at the Fed “should play a central role” in the exit from extraordinary monetary stimulus, according to minutes released today in Washington. Another tool, known as the overnight reverse repurchase facility, “could play a useful supporting role,” according to the minutes. The tool could be used to set the lowest rate at which holders of cash would be willing to lend.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Gaza Rockets Reaching Deeper Into Israel. Airstrikes on Palestinian Territory Aim to Degrade Hamas's Arsenal. Over the past two days, Gaza militants have sent rockets deeper into Israel than ever before, raising the stakes of Israel's own air campaign against the territory's Hamas leadership. Israel launched its most aggressive airstrikes in 20 months on Tuesday, attacking at least 486 targets over the past two days in an effort to degrade Hamas's arsenal, the military said. Palestinians have fired recently acquired... 
  • Companies Selling Stocks at Record Pace This Year. Offerings of Stock and Similar Securities Have Raised $510 Billion in 2014 Around the World. Companies world-wide are selling stocks at a record pace, capitalizing on investors' appetite for riskier assets at a time of low returns on safer bets. Offerings of stock and stock-linked securities have raised $510.1 billion in 2014 through Tuesday, according to data provider Dealogic. That beats out the previous record for that time period, $498.9 billion in 2007. While many deals still originate with growing companies... 
  • The Fundraiser in Chief. Since taking office, President Obama has attended almost 400 events to hit up donors. As de facto party leader, presidents raise political money. Since he makes time for it no matter how pressing world or national affairs are, President Obama apparently likes raising campaign funds. He has attended 34 fundraisers so far this year. What is unusual is how much time he devotes to it, his timing and his lack of judgment. For example, the afternoon following the Sept. 11, 2012, murder of Ambassador Christopher Stevens in...
Fox News:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC: 
  • Holder won't meet with BofA CEO as mortgage talks stall. U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder has formally refused to meet with Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan to hammer out a multibillion-dollar deal, as talks to resolve probes into shoddy mortgage securities sold by the bank and its units remain at a standstill, according to people familiar with the matter.
Zero Hedge:  
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
Financial Times:
Liquidity crunch a catalyst for big China slowdown – analysts The mini liquidity crunch is the early warning sign of a substantial economic correction long overdue, amid rising leverage and a broken growth model, say bearish analysts.


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3222433/Liquidity-crunch-a-catalyst-for-big-China-slowdownanalysts.html?copyrightInfo=true
Financial Review:
  • Keeping watch for the next subprime timebomb. Fears are growing of another subprime crisis, but this time it won’t be because of mortgage-backed securities. Rather, junk bonds and high-risk government debt might be the culprits.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.75 unch.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (PGR)/.49
  • (FDO)/.89
  • (PSMT)/.70
  • (JOEZ)/-.03
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated at 315K versus 315K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2565K versus 2579K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Inventories for May are estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.1% gain in April.
  • Wholesale Sales for May are estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.3% gain in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (ACIW) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's George speaking, 30Y $13B T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg July US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (CVX) earnings update could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

1 comment:

theyenguy said...

Bloomberg reports European Stocks Decline for a Fifth Day as Luxembourg based Espirito Santo Financial Group SA, which owns 25 percent of Portugal’s second-biggest bank by market value, said it decided to suspend its shares. Banque Privee Espirito Santo SA, fully owned by ESFG, said on July 8 that there was a delay in payments of some of the last maturities of short-term debt securities issued by ESI. Portugal’s PSI 20 tumbled 3 percent, the most among 18 western-European markets, sending its seven-day slump to 11 percent. The index trades at its lowest level since October.


The value of equities in Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain, is falling after rising 13 percent in the first six months of 2014, compared with a 2 percent gain for the market capitalization of stocks in France and Germany. The ratio between the two reached an almost three-year high. The last time shares in the so-called peripheral European nations rallied so much relative to those in the biggest economies, they lost about half their value in the following year.


Bloomberg reports Espirito Santo Bonds Tumble to Records Amid Missed Note Payments Banco Espirito Santo has been “adequately isolated” by the Bank of Portugal from the financial problems, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Luis Marques Guedes said on July 3. The bank was the only one of the three biggest publicly traded Portuguese lenders that didn’t request state aid after the country received a European Union-led bailout in May 2011.


The coinage of the entire Banker Regime is failing, as investors greed has turned to fear that European leaders are unable to contain investment losses from what are most definitely insolvent banks.


These are just a few of the news reports which communicate that the Eurozone periphery nations, such as Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, are loaded with all types of debt, not just Treasury Debt that cannot be repaid.

For example the WSJ reports Bad Property Loans Stick to Italian Banks. A Fraction of bad loans has been bought by investors.

Other news reports consistently communicate that prosperity has been relegated to the dustbin of history by economic deflation; this includes the CNBC report Eurozone Retail Sales Stall As Households Feel Pain.

Failed sovereigns and failed seigniorage cannot, and does not provide ongoing economic experience of prosperity; such only provide economic deflation and economic chaos.

It is out of these tossing and turning economic waves in the Club Med nations, that new sovereignty and seigniorage will emerge, as regional leaders meet in summits, to renounce national sovereignty and announce shared sovereignty, more specifically regional pooled sovereignty, which will be come though regional framework agreements, whose purpose is to establish regional security stability and sustainability.