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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 1:24 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • New Sanctions Readied by U.S., EU as Russia Prepares. The U.S. and European Union may move as soon as today to impose tougher sanctions against Russia as Vladimir Putin’s government sought replacements for defense imports and considered restrictions on some agriculture products from America and its allies. The new sanctions are aimed at “key sectors” of Russia’s economy -- finance, defense and energy -- and are being imposed in the face of Putin “doubling down” in support of separatists battling the government of Ukraine, U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Tony Blinken said yesterday. “The longer this goes on, there is the risk of further outrageous actions by the separatists or by Russia that deepen the international crisis,” Blinken said. “So there’s a need to take further action now to convince Russia to change course.”  
  • Russia Eyes Banning U.S. Chicken And Some European Fruit. Facing tougher sanctions over its incursion into Ukraine, Russia announced today that it may ban imports of chicken from the U.S. and fruit from Europe and is investigating McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) cheese for safety. While Russia and the U.S. have long sparred over agricultural trade, today’s actions fueled speculation they could be retaliatory. The 28-nation European Union and the U.S. plan to announce as soon as this week additional actions to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government. 
  • Microsoft(MSFT) China Target of Potential Probe, Sina Reports. Chinese regulators met with managers at Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)’s offices in four cities including Beijing and Shanghai in preparation for a potential probe into whether the company engaged in monopolistic practices, Sina.com said.
  • Asian Stocks Gain as Bonds Drop Before Fed; Oil Declines. Asian stocks rose, with the regional index advancing a third day to extend its six-year high, while bonds followed U.S. Treasuries lower before the Federal Reserve starts meeting today. Oil fell as soybeans climbed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent by 9:53 a.m. in Tokyo, as Japan’s Topix (TPX) index and the Kospi in Seoul climbed at least 0.2 percent.
  • Gold Holds Above $1,300 Before Fed Meeting Amid Ukraine Tension. Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,304.59 an ounce by 9:28 a.m. in Singapore from $1,304.05 yesterday, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Setbacks Complicate Putin's Ukraine Strategy. Pro-Russia Rebels Suffer Setbacks as West Readies Tougher Sanctions; Kremlin Prepares for Deeper International Isolation. Pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine saw some of their worst battlefield setbacks in weeks Monday as the West agreed on tougher sanctions aimed at forcing Moscow to cut support for the militias—posing fresh challenges on two fronts for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian forces were advancing from the north and south in an effort to cut off Donetsk, one of two remaining separatist strongholds, from fellow rebels in the... 
  • Israel Says It Is Escalating Gaza Campaign. Defies International Pressure for Immediate Cease-fire. Israel's leaders said they were escalating the military campaign in Gaza and told the country to prepare for a prolonged operation, defying international demands for an immediate cease-fire after Hamas militants broke a Muslim holiday lull. The military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, said Israel's assault on Gaza's Hamas rulers was being "intensified" after three weeks of fighting that have cost more than 1,100 lives.
  • Electric Utilities Get No Jolt From Gadgets, Improving Economy. Electricity Sales Anemic for Seventh Year in a Row. 
Fox News:
  • US, Israel clash over criticism of Kerry. The State Department publicly battled a barrage of Israeli criticism on Monday over Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts to secure a cease-fire with Hamas, in the latest signs of strain between the Obama administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Administration officials spoke in unusually blunt terms in defending Kerry, accusing some in Israel of launching a "misinformation campaign" against the top American diplomat.
CNBC:
  • Why the Fed could start raising rates sooner than you think.
  • Herbalife(HLF) reports earnings of $1.55 a share vs. estimate of $1.56.
Zero Hedge: 
  • The Shocking Reason Putin Isn't Worried About The $50 Billion Yukos Ruling.
  • NYSE Margin Debt Storms Back To All Time Highs. (graph)
  • Mapping The Global Contagion From Portugal's Systemic Banking Crisis.
  • Peak IPO. (graph)
  • High-Yield Credit Hits 10-Week Wides As Stocks Bounceback To Unch. (graph)
  • Most Transparent Insider Trading Congress Ever Tells SEC To Shove it.
  • Japanese Unemployment Jumps To Worst In 2014 As Household Spending & Retail Sales Drop For 3rd Month. (graph)
  • Is This The Chart That Has High-Yield Investors Running For The Hills? (graph)
  • US May Send Military Aid To Ukraine; Accuses Russia Of Violating Nuclear Arms Treaty With ICBM Launch.
  • Is This China's QE? (graph)
Business Insider:
  • HAMAS LEADER: We Have No Current Plans To 'Coexist' With Israel.
  • GARY SHILLING: Wall Street's Herd Will Be Disappointed.
Telegraph:
  • IMF tax bombshell: its plans for higher VAT and a property raid are wrong. The IMF's suggestions for VAT would destroy any government that sought to implement them.
21st Century Business Herald:
  • China to Start Nationwide Audit on Land Incomes. National Audit Office will start audit on land transfer incomes in 2008-2013 soon, citing a person close to the office. The audit will focus on local governments' non-compliant issues related to land incomes. The audit may bring pressure to property development or govt financing. The audit may affect trust, asset management and PE products related to property development or local government financing vehicles due to local governments' reliance on land incomes.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 -2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.75 +.75 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (ACI)/-.49
  • (AKS)/-.03
  • (RAI)/.87
  • (GLW)/.38
  • (UTHR)/1.62
  • (ETN)/1.12
  • (MRK)/.81
  • (PCAR)/.89
  • (AGCO)/1.69
  • (HCA)/1.37
  • (IP)/.83
  • (WYNN)/2.03
  • (PFE)/.57
  • (AET)/1.60
  • (TRW)/2.12
  • (UPS)/1.25
  • (ITW)/1.20
  • (TWTR)/-.01
  • (AFL)/1.59
  • (AXP)/1.38
  • (AMGN)/2.06
  • (IGT)/.27
  • (NEM)/.19
  • (BWLD)/1.20
  • (ESRX)/1.22
  • (X)/-.31
  • (PNRA)/1.75
  • (BXP)/1.33
  • (APC)/1.30
  • (RGR)/1.23
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.19% gain in April.
10:00 am EST
  • The Consumer Confidence Index for July is estimated to rise to 85.5 versus 85.2 in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Industrial Production report, $35B 5Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports, Keefe Bruyette Community Bank Conference and the (MW) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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