Thursday, July 17, 2014

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Escalating Russia-Ukraine/Mideast Tensions, Rising Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Hawkish Fed Commentary, Biotech/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.22 +20.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.04 -.32%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.01 +2.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.52 +11.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -44.85%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +17.28%
  • NYSE Arms 1.02 +48.65% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.03 +3.65%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.35 +4.10%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.20 -1.61%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.99 +1.91%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 242.82 +3.60%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 304.68 n/a
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.75 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 201.0 -4.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $97.5/Metric Tonne -.51%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.7 -3.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.50 -2.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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