Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Bond Damage Tally: $340 Billion Lost as Slump Put in Perspective. Global bond markets have lost about $340 billion since the start of last week as investors ponder the end of a six-year rally that sent yields to record lows. Traders returning from Europe’s May Day holidays sent yields surging across the continent as tensions between Greece and its creditors worsened, adding to the anxiety. Yields began the climb last week as billionaire bond investors Jeffrey Gundlach to Bill Gross questioned the viability of negative yields with the European Central Bank’s stimulus measures appearing to put an end to the risk of deflation.
  • It's Time to Get Ready for the End of China's Bull Market. For Chinese investors with a sense of history, the nation’s world-beating equity rally is looking long overdue for a reversal. The bull market turned 883 days old on Tuesday, topping China’s previous record by 56 days, after a 119 percent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index since December 2012. Even if the advance is measured from June 2013 -- when the gauge narrowly avoided a bear-market drop of 20 percent -- it’s still the second longest since Chinese bourses opened for trading in 1990. 
  • Origins of Chinese Bond Default Buried in Accounting Footnotes. Investors still wondering how Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. doubled its debt in six months and triggered China’s first property bond default may want to read page 63 of its 2014 interim report. There, in footnote No. 15 of the Shenzhen-based company’s balance sheet, is a reference to 11 billion yuan ($1.8 billion) in advance deposits for property projects from third parties and for 1.15 billion yuan that needed to be refunded. 
  • China Trusts Fuel Rally With Record Rise in Equities Investment. China’s trust companies, part of the shadow-banking industry, boosted their investment in equities by a record 225 billion yuan ($36 billion) in the first quarter, adding fuel to the country’s stock-market rally. About 777 billion yuan of high-yield trust products were invested in stocks at the end of March, more than double the 314 billion yuan a year earlier, according to data released by the China Trustee Association on Wednesday.
  • Alibaba's(BABA) Slowing Growth in China Costs Investors $70 Billion, After Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. raised a record $25 billion last year, founder Jack Ma said the Chinese e-commerce company faced the danger of high expectations. He might be right. About $70 billion of market value has evaporated since Ma made that statement in November as investors worry about slowing growth. Alibaba’s dominance at home as a marketplace for buyers and sellers of goods is being undermined by a Chinese economy projected to grow at the slowest pace since 1990 and a consumer shift to mobile shopping that crimps advertising revenue.   
  • Asian Stocks Outside Japan Fall Second Day, Following U.S. Slump. Asian stocks outside of Japan dropped for a second day, with the regional gauge extending a two-week low, as banks and information technology shares declined following a slump in U.S. equities. Woolworths Ltd. fell 3.8 percent after Australia’s biggest supermarket chain announced job cuts as sales missed estimates. Commonwealth Bank of Australia slid 4.3 percent as the nation’s top lender by market value posted third-quarter cash profit that was unchanged from a year earlier. HSBC Holdings Plc slipped 1 percent in Hong Kong after first-quarter revenue fell short of expectations at Europe’s largest bank. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 0.8 percent to 509.12 as of 9:34 a.m. in Hong Kong. 
  • Dollar Tantrum Screams Buy to Goldman Sachs(GS) Seeing GDP Rebound. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investors should build positions that seek to profit from the dollar’s strength as U.S. growth is set to pick up. A gauge of the dollar fell last month for the first time since June. Lower-than-forecast economic data, including first-quarter gross domestic product, fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will keep U.S. interest rates lower for longer.
  • BlackRock’s(BLK) On a Mission to Save the Credit-Default Swaps Market. BlackRock Inc. is leading a push to revive trading in a key part of the credit derivatives market that’s shrunk 57 percent as post-crisis regulations made it costlier to trade. The world’s biggest asset manager is targeting contracts known as single-name credit-default swaps -- those tied to individual companies and countries. That piece of the market has declined disproportionately because it has been slower to adapt to new standards for trading. BlackRock has had preliminary discussions with banks and other debt investors for a plan that would route trades through clearinghouses intended to curb risks to the financial system.
  • Secret Shorts: Nameless Naysayers Shake Markets in Twitter Age. They were reviled in the age of Rembrandt, outlawed in the time of Newton and, in the days of Napoleon, branded enemies of the state. Now short sellers have embraced the age of Twitter -- and the results are almost as explosive. The Internet has given a new generation of short sellers and researchers tools to spread bearish investment advice in a blink, and, sometimes, do so anonymously. Accusations fly, many fall on deaf ears, but occasionally a post or tweet from a faceless source can wipe out billions of market value.
  • U.S. Is Probing Apple(AAPL) Over Its Deals for Beats Music. U.S. antitrust officials are scrutinizing Apple Inc.’s efforts to line up deals with record labels as it prepares to debut a new version of the Beats Music streaming service, according to people familiar with the matter. The Federal Trade Commission is looking at whether Apple is using its position as the largest seller of music downloads through its iTunes store to put rival music services like Spotify Ltd. at a disadvantage, one of the people said.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Market U-Turn Rams Hedge Funds. Firms’ bets go sour, as U.S. economy stalls, German bonds fall and oil rebounds. A broad market reversal is battering hedge funds, spoiling the industry’s strongest annual start since the financial crisis. Many funds that bet on global financial and economic trends run by firms such as Fortress Investment Group LLC and Discovery Capital Management LLC suffered losses in April as they tried to benefit from a constellation of market moves that gained momentum in mid-2014 and were widely expected to continue...
  • Yellen Meetings With Financial Firm Come Under Scrutiny. Efforts to press Federal Reserve for more details on possible leak focus attention on chairwoman’s contacts. Congressional efforts to press the Federal Reserve for more details about a possible leak have suddenly focused attention on Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s contacts with financial firms.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters: 
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.50 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 60.50 +.5 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures +.28%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (DDD)/.03
  • (BUD)/1.18
  • (HAIN)/.45
  • (OXY)/.04
  • (RDC)/.70
  • (SNH)/.45
  • (SODA)/.03
  • (WEN)/.05
  • (CZR)/-1.53
  • (CECO)/-.25
  • (CF)/4.52
  • (EXPD)/.48
  • (GMCR)/1.05
  • (MRO)/-.46
  • (MELI)/.63
  • (MET)/1.41
  • (PRU)/2.39
  • (TSLA)/-.51
  • (RIG)/.61
  • (WBMD)/.30
  • (WFM)/.43
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • ADP Employment Change for April is estimated at 200K versus 189K in March.
8:30 am EST
  • Preliminary 1Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to fall -1.9% versus a -2.2% decline in 4Q.
  • Preliminary 1Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +4.5% versus a +4.1% gain in 4Q.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +900,000 barrels versus a +1,910,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +387,500 barrels versus a +1,713,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -75,000 barrels versus a -66,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.57% versus a +.1% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's George speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, Eurozone Services PMI report, Australia Employment report, 1Q MBA Mortgage Foreclosures/Mortgage Delinquencies reports, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Sanford Bernstein Energy Conference, Deutsche Bank Health Care Conference, (FLEX) investor day and the (AMD) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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