Monday, July 06, 2015

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on China Bubble-Bursting Fears, Greece Debt Deal Concerns, Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +7.21%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.49 -.81%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.94 +1.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.03 +1.19%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +70.9%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -.98%
  • NYSE Arms 1.86 +65.36% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.52 +4.86%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,246.0 +.16%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.39 +6.27%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 29.57 +12.41%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.23 +1.50%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 314.01 +4.07%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.92 +.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.50 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  • Yield Curve 170.0 -5.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $52.28/Metric Tonne -5.39%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.6 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -6.5 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.20 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 -3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +138 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -188 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -78 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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