Thursday, April 27, 2017

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • Japan Data Deluge Points to Economic Growth, Weak Inflation. (video) A flood of data the day after the Bank of Japan held its monetary policy unchanged indicates that the modest recovery in the world’s third-largest economy is continuing for a fifth quarter, yet inflation largely refuses to budge. Consumer prices excluding fresh food, the core measure for inflation, increased 0.2 percent in March from a year earlier (forecast 0.2 percent). The unemployment rate for March was 2.8 percent (forecast 2.9 percent). Industrial production fell 2.1 percent in March from the previous month (forecast -0.8 percent). Retail sales climbed 2.1 percent from a year ago (forecast 1.5 percent).
  • China's Enrichment Spawns Mature Problem -- Middle Class Angst. China’s industrial revolution may soon hand authorities a problem more typical in mature economies: how to appease the growing discontent of the middle class. The rapid march from poverty to economic superpower gifted China’s middle class explosive income growth. Yet the image of affluent Chinese scouring the globe for luxury brands belies an insecure middle class as anxious as their counterparts anywhere. Recent data on compensation underscores their feeling of being left behind. Growth in China’s median income dropped below the rate of economic expansion in the first quarter for the first time since the data was first released in 2014. Back then, the median grew at almost double the pace of total output.
  • Asian Stocks Mixed on Earnings; Dollar Strengthens. Asian equities were mixed, with the regional benchmark gauge poised for the biggest weekly gain in more than a month, as investors assessed corporate earnings from around the globe and awaited a report on growth in the world’s largest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed after climbing for six straight sessions. Results at Inc. and Alphabet Inc. buoyed Nasdaq futures. Crude climbed back above $49 a barrel after tumbling on concern over a supply glut. The euro held losses after the European Central Bank signaled its commitment to stimulus even as the region’s economy firms.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 22.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.21 -.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures unch
  • NASDAQ 100 futures unch.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

  • (AGCO)/-.18
  • (ALV)/1.56
  • (B)/.60
  • (CVX)/.87
  • (CL)/.66
  • (XOM)/.87
  • (GM)/1.47
  • (GT)/.63
  • (IDXX)/.61
  • (LYB)/2.36
  • (PSX)/.06
  • (RCL)/.92
  • (VFC)/.55
  • (WY)/.19
Economic Releases  
8:30 am EST
  • 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.5% gain in 4Q. 
  • Advance 1Q GDP is estimated to rise  +1.0% versus a +2.0% gain in 4Q.
  • Advance 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +3.5% gain in 4Q
  • Advance 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +2.1% gain in 4Q. 
  • Advance 1Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +1.3% gain in 4Q.
9:45 am EST
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager for April is estimated to fall to 56.3 versus 57.7 in March.
10:00 am EST
  • Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for April is estimated at 98.0 versus 98.0 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Brainard speaking, Fed's Harker speaking and the government funding deadline could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

No comments: