Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China's $8.5 Trillion Shadow Bank Industry Is Back in Full Swing. China’s shadow banking is back in full swing, an unintended side effect of the government’s campaign against financial leverage, which has curbed traditional lending and squeezed bond financing. Data from the central bank Friday showed that off-balance sheet lending surged 754 billion yuan ($109 billion) in March, taking the first quarter’s total increase to a record 2.05 trillion yuan. Efforts by the People’s Bank of China to curb fresh lending may have prompted borrowers, especially real estate developers, to resort to alternative forms of financing, said Xu Gao, chief economist at Everbright Securities Co.

• Beware the Rally in Emerging-Market Currencies. Beware the rally in emerging-market currencies: the best quarterly performance in almost seven years is about to reverse. That’s the message from the most-accurate forecaster of developing-nation Asian currencies last quarter: Wells Fargo & Co. “We don’t see continued appreciation through the rest of the year,” said Nicholas Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at the U.S. bank in New York. “Federal Reserve interest-rate increases should continue at a steady pace, which should weigh on most foreign currencies, including Asian currencies.”

• Japan 10-Year Yield Falls to Zero for First Time in Five Months. Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield fell to zero percent for the first time since November as U.S. Treasury yields plunged on weak economic data, while lingering tensions over North Korea and uncertainty over France’s presidential election keep haven demand intact. The 10-year Treasury yield fell eight basis points Tuesday to a five-month low of 2.17 percent. The Guardian reported the U.S. military is considering shooting down North Korean missile tests, citing two unidentified people briefed on the planning. The U.S. is closely monitoring the situation in North Korea, a White House spokesman said.

• Canada Puts Housing Speculators on Notice as Toronto Prices Soar.

• Asian Stocks Drop After Weak U.S. Trading Session. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.1 percent.
  Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.5 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index declined 0.3 percent. Hang Seng futures slid 0.1 percent.

Wall Street Journal:

• Banks Rack Up Advisory Fees as Fiduciary Rule’s Future Hangs. Trump administration may scrap the Obama-era rule, but Wall Street already sees benefits of recurring fees over commissions.

• U.S. Carl Vinson Carrier Wasn’t on Way to North Korea. Despite representations by Trump and defense advisers, Vinson was thousands of miles away on exercises off northwest coast of Australia.

Fox News:

• Double threat? ISIS and Al Qaeda are in talks to join forces, Iraq's VP says. (video)

CNBC:

• Verizon(VZ) CEO said he may be interested in merger with Disney(DIS), Comcast(CMCSA) or CBS(CBS).

• PetSmart(PETM) is acquiring Chewy.com for $3.35 billion in largest e-commerce acquisition.

• The French election is a big deal — and it has more than one scary outcome for markets. (video)

• Trump: 'We're going to surprise you' with speed of tax reform.

Zero Hedge:

• Meet Brad Birkenfeld: "Lucifer's Banker".

• IBM(IBM) Tumbles After Posting Lowest Revenue In 15 Years, 20th Consecutive Quarter Of Declining Sales.

• Three People Killed In Fresno Shooting Spree; Shooter Screamed "Allahu Akbar", Hated "White People".

• Obama, Comey Relied On Discredited Dossier To Obtain FISA Warrant On Trump Campaign.

• Wall Street Is Pouring Money Back Into Shale.

• Stockman: We're Borrowing Our Way To Economic Disaster.

• WTI/RBOB Tumble After Unexpected Build In Gasoline Inventories. (graph)

• 'May'hem Strikes - Dollar & Bond Yields "Pounded" To Post-Election Lows. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Hillary Clinton reportedly blamed everyone but herself for her humiliating defeat to Trump. 

• MARK CUBAN: Gary Cohn is leading a 'Democratic invasion' of Trump's White House. Billionaire business mogul Mark Cuban said Tuesday that Gary Cohn, head of President Donald Trump's National Economic Council, is leading a "Democratic invasion of the White House." Cuban, the owner of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks and star of ABC's "Shark Tank," told the Fox Business Network that was why Trump is becoming more centrist, according to Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino. "50% of non-military leadership are Democrats," Cuban said, pointing to Cohn, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, senior adviser Jared Kushner, and assistant to the president Ivanka Trump.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 +1.75 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 24.25 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.35 +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%. 

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ABT)/.43

• (ASML)/.92

• (BLK)/4.90

• (MS)/.90

• (AMTD)/.41

• (TXT)/.45

• (USB)/.80

• (AXP)/1.27

• (BMI)/.27

• (CP)/2.49

• (CSX)/.43

• (EBAY)/.48

• (KMI)/.18

• (QCOM)/1.20

• (SCSS)/.46

• (STLD)/.79

• (URI)/1.55

• (VMI)/1.63

Economic Releases
10:30 am EST 

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,033,330 barrels versus a -2,166,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,633,330 barrels versus a -2,973,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -788,890 barrels versus a -2,153,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.11% versus a +.2% gain the prior week.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed releases Beige Book report. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Eurozone CPI/Trade Balance reports and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.