Friday, November 22, 2019

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Hopes, US Economic Data, Earnings Optimism, Biotech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.7 -3.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.32 -.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.08 -1.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.7 -3.08%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +54
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -13.8%
  • NYSE Arms .82 +45.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.19 -1.36%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 602.0 +2.68%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.13 +2.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +3.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.97 +.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 202.79 -.62%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.90 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -2.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 33.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.48 -.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.58% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .15 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 86.80 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.3 +5.3 basis points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.10 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -28.20 -1.2 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 unch.
  • 17.3% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 27.8% chance of cut at March 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +48 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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