Tuesday, November 05, 2019

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Retail/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.9 +.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.46 -.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.36 +1.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 27.9 +2.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 n/a
  • Total Put/Call .84 +31.3%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +2.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.21 -.97%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 486.0 -2.94%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.58 -.03%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.75 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.50 -2.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 192.51 +2.01%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.35 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 37.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.36 -.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.54% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .21+5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.50 +2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.50 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.50 +.2 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 +3.0 basis points
  • 25.8% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 35.9% chance of cut at March 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +130 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/retail/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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