Monday, November 18, 2019

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.6 +4.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.92 +.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.19 -.42%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 26.44 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 +1
  • Total Put/Call .92 +13.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 +122.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.12 -.87%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 548.0 -1.64%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.66 -.78%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.50 -13.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.72 -1.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 200.58 +1.63%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.92 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.0 -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 34.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.36 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% unch.
  • Yield Curve .22 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 83.30 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.7 +.4 basis point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.80 -3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.20 -1.3 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 +1.0 basis point
  • 21.7% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 34.6% chance of cut at March 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -6 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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