Monday, November 04, 2019

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Enthusiasm, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Energy/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 +3.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.55 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.24 +.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 27.7 -3.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +5.0
  • Total Put/Call .61 -15.3%
  • NYSE Arms .75 +5.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.58 -3.66%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 501.0 -.36%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.56 -3.15%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.75 -2.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.62 -3.35%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 189.47 -1.57%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.27 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.25 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.75 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 +4.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.42 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.53% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .16 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.0 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.20 -6.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.70 -2.3 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 +5.0 basis points
  • 31.9% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 44.1% chance of cut at March 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +300 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +54 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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