Monday, June 29, 2020

Stocks Higher into FInal Hour on US Economic Data, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Transport/Gaming Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 32.9 -5.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.45 +.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.69 -.56%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.1 -2.75%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +27.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .98 -6.67%
  • NYSE Arms .69 -50.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.90 -.87%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 990.50 +1.77%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.80 -.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.5 +.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.78 -.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 204.12 -.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.38 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.25 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.14 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 47.5 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.75 USD/Metric Tonne -3.24%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 167.40 +5.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -99.80 -18.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.0 -7.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.33 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +345 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -176 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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