Tuesday, June 09, 2020

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Recession Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Energy/Airline Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.8 +3.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.68 -.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.56 +1.27%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.05 +4.25%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 148.0 +18.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .66 +10.0%
  • NYSE Arms 2.22 +384.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.74 +6.73%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 878.27 +1.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.60 +8.67%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 181.0 +8.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.76 +2.42%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 235.06 +4.94%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.52 +.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  107.0 -1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.81 -.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .16% unch.
  • Yield Curve 62.25 -3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.75 USD/Metric Tonne -.32%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.60 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -214.20 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.5 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.26 -1.0 basis point
  • 85.0% chance of no change at July 29th meeting, 85.9% chance of no change at Sept. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -206 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -138 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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