Friday, June 05, 2020

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Recession Fears, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Energy/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.5 -5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.32 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.50 -3.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.2 -4.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 145.0 +56.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .62 -16.2%
  • NYSE Arms .63 +12.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.53 -9.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 924.17 -2.76%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.2 -9.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.0 -6.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 223.40 -7.91%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.12 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.0 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  109.0 -4.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 69.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.80 +.53%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .15% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 62.75 +7.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.55%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 66.30 +58.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -215.20 -5.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.4 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.26 +6.0 basis points
  • 92.1% chance of no change at July 29th meeting, 92.1% chance of no change at Sept. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +257 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical/industrial/consumer staple sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

No comments: