Friday, June 19, 2020

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Coronavirus 2nd Wave Fears, Rising Biden Presidency Odds, Geopolitical Tensions, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 33.5 +1.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.92 -.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.72 -.83%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 71.99 +4.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -1.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .87 +2.35%
  • NYSE Arms 1.82 +121.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.43 +4.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 922.14 -.05%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.86 -.81%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.25 -1.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.67 +.98%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 198.88 -5.0%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.30 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  115.0 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.0 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.43 +.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .15% unch.
  • Yield Curve 50.75 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.65 USD/Metric Tonne -.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 128.60 +1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -186.90 +5.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.8 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.29 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -63 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -192 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -171 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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