Monday, June 22, 2020

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Global Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 32.8 -6.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.84 +.81%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -1.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 69.2 -10.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +8.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .78 -15.2%
  • NYSE Arms .87 -43.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.67 -.45%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 1,045.0 -.43%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.83 +2.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 172.75 -4.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.15 +.39%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 195.66 -4.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.22 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -2.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  115.0 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.62 +.34%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 50.25 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.04 USD/Metric Tonne -1.86%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 145.40 +17.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -168.10 +17.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.9 -5.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.32 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +93 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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