Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Recession Fears, Coronavirus 2nd Wave Concerns, Technical Selling, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.3 -4.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.65 -.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.65 +1.15%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.25 -7.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -62.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .69 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.69 -36.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.85 +1.24%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 894.30 +1.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.63 +2.68%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.25 +7.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.52 +2.08%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 235.59 +.25%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.16 -.22%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.5 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  106.0 -1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.25 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.01 +.35%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .17% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 57.75 -4.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.41 USD/Metric Tonne -.08%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.10 -4.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -213.20 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.27 +1.0 basis point
  • 85.9% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 86.2% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -285 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -122 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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