Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• Energy Crisis Tearing Through Markets Leaves a Trail of Losers.  
• China’s Growth Prospects Weaken as Economists Cut 2023 Forecasts.
• Apple’s New iPhone 14 to Show India Closing Tech Gap With China.  
• Bank of Korea’s Rhee Keeps Door Open for Outsized Rate Hike.
• Iran May Drain Offshore Crude Oil Cache If Nuclear Deal Reached.
• Fortescue Profit Down Despite Record Iron Ore Shipments.  
• US Futures Extend Drops as Asia Braces for Losses: Markets Wrap.
• Central Bankers in Jackson Hole Embrace Tightening Mission Ahead.
  
• Powell Heaps Pressure on Risk Sentiment as More Catalysts Loom.
• Just as Wall Street Piles In, Tech Stocks Face Fresh Rates Storm.
• Trademark Filings Suggest Apple May Be Securing ‘Reality’ Names for AR/VR Headset.  
• Bitcoin Back Down to Around $20,000 After Jackson Hole Caution.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Retailers Face Uneasy Shoppers as Inventory Piles Up.
  
• Student-Loan Forgiveness Is Really a Bailout for Woke Higher Ed. It will perpetuate the racket of selling degrees that aren’t accompanied by marketable skills.
• Everyone’s a Landlord—Small-Time Investors Snap Up Out-of-State Properties.
• Airlines Keep Flight Cuts, Other Curbs as Industry Woes Linger.
• Latest Covid Boosters Are Set to Roll Out Before Human Testing Is Completed.
• Russia Moves to Reinforce Its Stalled Assault on Ukraine.
• Taking Apart an EV Battery Illustrates Why ‘Made in America’ Will Be Tough.

Fox News:

• Rookie running back reportedly shot as victim in attempted robbery.
• Health scare forces Beto to take a break from campaign trail.

CNBC:

• Friday’s rout on Wall Street looks set to continue as Dow futures sink 200 points.
• Cash is king for EV makers as soaring battery prices drive up vehicle production costs.
• The rent crisis on Main Street just took a turn for the worse.

Zero Hedge:

• Central Bankers From Around The Globe Deliver Hawkish Message At Jackson Hole.
• Chang: China Is Weaponizing Chinese Worldwide To Support The CCP.
• "This Is Beyond Imagination": Polish Homeowners Line Up For Days To Buy Coal Ahead Of Winter.
• Denver Public Schools Show Video Telling Kids To Avoid Police "As Perpetrators Of Violence".
• Rockefeller Foundation Wants Behavioral Scientists To Come Up With More Convincing COVID Vaxx Narratives.
• Russian Diamonds Flow Back On Global Market As Western Sanctions Fail.
• DeSantis' Campaigning Could Influence Midterms And Beyond.
• US Sends Two Warships Through Taiwan Strait In 1st Since Pelosi Visit.
• Tilting The Scales.
• Sunday blues - the left tail (in equities) edition.
• Economies Can Burn Out, Too... And They Are.
• China Answers Sen. Blackburn Visit By Buzzing Taiwan With 4 Nuclear-Capable Bombers.
• Morgan Stanley Spots A New "Recession Canary" In The Credit Coal Mine.
• Sentiment & Positioning not bearish enough to prevent a further sell-off.
• The Rule Of 20 And Why The Bear Market Remains.
• "Someone Wanted To Get Me Killed": Rep. Greene Responds To Being 'Swatted' 2 Nights In A Row.
• Wave Of European Ammonia Plant Closures To Exacerbate Food Crisis.
• Russia And Saudi Arabia Are Battling For Oil Market Share In Asia.
• San Francisco Shop Owners Threaten To Stop Paying Taxes Unless City Tackles Crime, Homelessness.
• 8 In 10 Americans Think Hunter Biden Laptop Cover-Up Changed Election Outcome; Poll Finds.
• The Worst & The Stupidest?
• The 'Great Reset': A Blueprint For Destroying Freedom, Innovation, & Prosperity.
• Now It Gets Ugly: CTAs Turn Short, Have Over $8BN To Sell This Week.

NewsMax:

• Judge: Inclined to Appoint Special Master as Trump Wants.  
• Jeffrey Lord to Newsmax: 'Serious Mistake' to Raid Trump's Home.
  
• Rep. Davidson: Biden's Student Loan Plan May Not Be Legal.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: Kari Lake Tears Into Katie Hobbs For Refusing To Debate: “She knows that I’m Gonna Hold Her Accountable For Her Horrific Record. This Woman Is a Monster”.
• NEVER BEFORE SEEN FOOTAGE Of Police Response To Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Swatting Incident – “100% They Wanted Me To Be MURDERED – Death By Cop” (VIDEO).
• Bulgarian Tennis Player Grigor Dimitrov Retires in His Opening Match During Winston Salem Open After Experiencing Dizziness and Shortness of Breath (VIDEO).
• Here We Go… DNI Avril Haines Tells Congress She Will Undertake “Damage Assessment” of Documents Taken by FBI at Mar-a-Lago that Were Unclassified by President Trump.
• Dr. Lawrence Sellin Presentation About COVID-19 Given in the Netherlands (VIDEO).
• DNC Chair Defends Joe Biden Calling Half the Country “Semi-Fascist” (VIDEO).
• WAYNE ROOT: Here is Who is to Blame for the Covid Vaccine Disaster and Coverup. Hint: It’s Not President Donald J. Trump.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘TikTok Is a Weaponized Military Application in the Hands of Our Kids’: Casey Fleming.

Twitter:

• @WallStreetSilv - Average annual UK household energy bill set to hit £6,600 in spring 2023… up +500% from last winter… Tor reference, the median full time salary in the UK is £31,000 per year before taxes…(graph)
• @PeterDClack - The US has 276 million motor vehicles, the UK 31 million. Electrifying all US vehicles alone would need 18 times current global production of cobalt, nine times the neodymium, three quarters of lithium & half the world's copper & rare earths. China dominates all these markets.
• @endless_frank - I don’t think most Americans realize how dire the situation is in Europe. If your utility bill went from $250/month to $2500, discretionary spending would get obliterated. The EU makes up 25% of $SPX earnings. Corporate earnings will fall off a cliff as the weather cools.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 857,343 Reports(+5,974 from prior week) Through August 12th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.0 +2.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 70.25 +4.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.75 -.14%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 42.0 +1.6%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.44 -14.0 basis points 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.0 +3.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -1.2%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.6%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (HEI)/.66
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for August is estimated to rise to -12.2 versus -22.6 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Brainard speaking, Australia Retail Sales report, Jefferies Semi/IT Hardware/Communications Infra Summit could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.