Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Soft Landing Hopes, Short-Covering, Dollar Weakness, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.2 +2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .60% -15.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,715.0 +113.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.32 +.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.9 -.14% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -12.4%

• NYSE Arms .98 +96.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.70 -1.99%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 382.37 -3.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 351.0 -7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.0 -2.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 206.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.50 -3.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 280.61 -2.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.5 -.04%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,466.5 -10.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 39.25 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.26 -.07%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .98 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.67 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.53% -4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -35.5 basis points (2s/10s) +8.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.3 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.2 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.2 +.2 point 
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.47 -.73:  Growth Rate +15.5% -.3 percentage point, P/E 17.9 +.1 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +2.45% +.08 percentage point
  

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 50.9%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 45.5%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 224 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.9%(-na percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -na/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.1%(-na percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +310 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% net long